Jim Henson

Election Rigging Redux and Public Opinion in Texas

November 27, 2016
By: 
Jim Henson

As Thanksgiving weekend 2016 came to an end, one of the more stinging tropes of the final weeks of the presidential campaign had suddenly re-emerged:  The specter of rigged elections once again haunts America. With newly-voiced concerns about the integrity of the just-completed elections re-surfacing on both the left and the right, polling results from the October 2016 University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll suggest the existence of receptive partisan audiences for recount calls and aggressive if unsubstantiated Tweets from the President-elect.

Differences in Party Unity Will Likely Trim GOP Margin in Texas Presidential Race

November 8, 2016
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

While Republicans still outnumber Democrats in the electorate that we should expect to show up in a presidential election in Texas, going into Election Day, there are signs of a shift toward a historically smaller GOP margin of victory in the contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton for the state's electoral votes. The October 2016 University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll also provides some insights into the different levels of unity among Democratic and Republican voters that also portends a better year for Democrats compared to a number of election cycles, though not an outright upset.

Republican Women in Texas and Donald Trump: It’s Complicated

November 4, 2016
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

In a TribTalk piece this week looking at Donald Trump’s support in Texas as reflected in the most recent University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, we wrote that “If Trump has a woman problem of his own making, it's not with GOP women in Texas — at least when compared to their brothers, husbands, boyfriends, and fathers.” This conclusion was based on a look at our sample of 269 GOP women, within a larger sample of 1200 registered voters. The perhaps counter-intuitive take away from that brief discussion is that their party loyalty makes Republican women one of Donald Trump’s central assets in Texas, even if there has been some attrition in their support, likely due to the pile of evidence suggesting that he has treated many women very badly, and been recorded talking about it in very crude terms.

A Quick Review of Fox Latino’s Evidence-Bereft Update on Ted Cruz’s Standing in Texas

October 28, 2016
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

A story published on the Fox Latino website about Sen. Ted Cruz headlined “Ted Cruz Puts His Popularity on the Line” speculates a plenty based on quotes from Republicans in Texas, but doesn’t bother to consider any bit of the considerable amount of evidence one might bring to bear on the premise – presumably because the most recent evidence points in the opposite direction, rendering said premise contentious at best and an example of manufacturing a storyline at worst.

Leaning or Tossed Up? Three Scenarios for Texas Based on the Presidential Polls

October 27, 2016
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

As we anticipate the results of the election, we can construct 3 different scenarios envisioning different election results in Texas. A “business-as-usual” scenario anticipates the election following typical characteristics and dynamics of Texas elections; another scenario might give more emphasis to some of the distinctive, specific factors that seem at play in this election as evidenced in recent poll results; and an X-factor scenario that might emphasize the possibility of a very significant divergence from patterns both recent polling and history have led us to expect.

Some Back of the Envelope Ciphering On Clinton's Chances in Texas

October 20, 2016
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

With final voter registration numbers counted and new polls showing a narrowing race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, it seems a good time for some back of the envelope arithmetic on the prospects of a Clinton victory. There is no high falutin modeling at work here – just some rough calculations about how much the Texas vote would have to differ from the last few presidential elections for Hillary Clinton to get more votes than Donald Trump. Our goal is to paint as rosy a scenario for Clinton as possible to get her over the line in Texas, albeit without requiring a total suspension of disbelief.

Whatever the polling is telling us, It turns out that the voting scenario has to be very rosy for Clinton to gain Texas’ electoral votes.

Video of the Entire Conversation with Comptroller Glenn Hegar at UT Austin

October 16, 2016
By: 
Jim Henson

We've now posted the entire conversation from Glenn Hegar's appearance in the Texas Politics Speaker Series on October 12.  Topics include: the biennial revenue estimate' the breakfasts he attended last session with the Governor, Lt. Governor, and the Speaker of the House; state and local government; taxes and revenue; room in the budget for tax cutting; Medicaid; the 2016 presidential race; and more.  Also included are his responses in the Q & A portion of the event,

Comptroller Hegar Talks Sorting State and Local Government, the Presidential Election

October 13, 2016
By: 
Jim Henson

The Texas Politics Project hosted Comptroller Glenn Hegar as part of the Texas Politics Speaker Series at the University of Texas at Austin yesterday.  We'll publish the whole interview soon, but in the meantime here are two brief excerpts.  The first clip, about the 2016 election, came in response to a question from the Austin American Statesman's Sean Walsh, who wrote about Hegar's response. The second clip finds the Comptroller channeling his legislative experience in response a question about the ongoing discussions about the balance of power between state and local governments.  Not to put words in his mouth, but it seems fair to paraphrase his response as "same ole, same ole." 

The Emerging Agenda for the 85th Legislature: Notes from Two Panels at Trib Fest

October 6, 2016
By: 
Jim Henson

It’s not lost on participants in the legislative process, from members to their staffs, from the lobby to the state agencies, that the maneuvering to shape the agenda of the 85th Texas Legislature is well underway.  While the 2016 presidential election dominates political coverage even more than usual, outside the spotlight the pace and volume of efforts to get issues on the state legislature's agenda increase daily. The Texas Tribune’s annual festival at UT Austin weekend before last generated lots of clues about what issues might rise to the surface --  and glimpses of how the friction between the chambers, as well as within and between the parties, is  shaping the jockeying for position in Austin.

Texas Polling Data for the Texas Tribune Festival

September 23, 2016
By: 
Joshua Blank
Jim Henson

The Texas Tribune Festival runs this weekend right here at The University of Texas at Austin, with a bunch of panels featuring a bunch of people talking about a bunch of political things.

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