Keyword: Democratic Party

How Did Beto O’Rourke Really Perform in the Democratic Primary Election?

| By: Joshua Blank

Was the disappointment in O’Rourke’s performance warranted? Even a preliminary look at data from the campaign and election suggests it isn’t.

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Springing back: Texas Data Points from the Week in Politics, March 16, 2018

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

On the Texas side of politics, this week felt like a flashback to last Spring, as the anti-sanctuary city law, the bathroom bill, and the general tone of the 85th Legislature all got rehearings. It’s hard not to feel yet again that there are much bigger goings-on nationally, as students not on spring break staged a national walk-out to protest inaction on gun policy, the Democrats won a squeaker in a Pennsylvania special election, and we discovered what many presupposed, that Special Counsel Mueller has some questions about the Trump business empire and its connections to Russians. Read on for Texas public opinion data linked to some of the big stories from the week in politics.

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Suburban swingers shaking Texas marriage to the GOP?

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

Fantasies of widespread voter abandonment of Republicans for Democrats in the Texas suburbs remain far-fetched, but data from the last three University of Texas/Texas Tribune polls does show that suburban attitudes towards President Trump in Texas could become cause for Texas GOP concern if the party continues on its current trajectory.

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Differences in Party Unity Will Likely Trim GOP Margin in Texas Presidential Race

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

While Republicans still outnumber Democrats in the electorate that we should expect to show up in a presidential election in Texas, going into Election Day, there are signs of a shift toward a historically smaller GOP margin of victory in the contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton for the state's electoral votes. The October 2016 University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll also provides some insights into the different levels of unity among Democratic and Republican voters that also portends a better year for Democrats compared to a number of election cycles, though not an outright upset.

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Convention After-Party: Texas Data Points from the Week in Politics, July 28 2016

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

Polling data suggests that the quest for party unity driving both party conventions over the last two weeks entails more complex challenges for Republicans than for Democrats in Texas. As Hillary Clinton becomes the first woman nominated by a major party for the presidency, she remains polarizing in Texas even though there is a gender gap in assessments of her. Barack Obama’s speech Wednesday night drew rave reviews from Democrats and even a few Republicans, and could even help rally the troops among Texas Democrats still simmering for Sanders. In advance of campus carry going into effect on public universities around the state (the legislature helpfully allowed private universities to opt out), we also provide some polling data on campus carry and feelings about safety. Probably not as helpful as signage, but we’re doing the best we can – as did several others in the state as they rolled out some great exercises in providing useful public data this week.

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Texas Data Points from the Week in Politics - February 12, 2016

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

The post-New Hampshire exits of Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie are unlikely to cause major movements in Texas, but the struggles of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders to expand their appeals to young people and racial and ethnic minorities, respectively, will be major factors in the Texas Democratic Primary. Down ballot in Texas, this week saw the factional conflicts in the Texas GOP continue to approach the boiling point as candidates released videos and oppo hits as March 1 approaches. Attorney General Ken Paxton, of course, isn’t worried at all about the indictments piling up against him, but nonetheless is probably glad that he’s not on the ballot right this minute. Amidst all the complex cross currents in Texas right now, The New York Times op-ed page is pretty clearly not very concerned about the details. Proceed for relevant Texas data and a few thoughts on the week in politics. 

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Biden is Second Choice Among Clinton Supporters in Texas - But Still a Long Shot

| By: Jim Henson, PhD and Joshua Blank, PhD

If Biden's rationale for entering the primary is to win the nomination, his only real chance (without guarantee of success) is for one of the most durable political figures of the last two-plus decades of American politics to be forced out of the race by circumstances. This is closer to the presidency than virtually anyone in America ever gets – but far from a sure thing for Biden.

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Can Texas Democrats win while losing?

| By: Jim Henson, PhD and Joshua Blank, PhD

Republicans appear poised to again sweep this year's statewide elections. But dig deeper into the data and you'll find faint signs of long-term promise for Texas Democrats, even if their standard-bearer loses in November. 

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Texas Democrats' unspoken predicament

| By: Jim Henson, PhD and Joshua Blank, PhD

The loud and public back-and-forth among Texas Republicans this year has given them something Democrats are sorely lacking: an honest conversation about their party's future.

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On immigration, polling defies assumptions

| By: Jim Henson, PhD and Joshua Blank, PhD

In Texas, the surprisingly complex patterns of public opinion on immigration call into question the conventional wisdom informing media coverage — and even political strategy.

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