Before Tuesday's election, here's a look at the last eight months of polling in the Republican race for U.S. Senate.
The February 2012 University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows a riptide of very conservative opinion is exerting a strong pull on state politics.
In a poll of potential voters, how should we go about determining what the electorate might look like on Election Day?
Lame duck or not, Rick Perry is still the Republican governor of a strongly Republican state. In Texas, he controls the levers of government, muzzles the news media and has no meaningful political opposition.
The underlying fundamentals that buttressed Gov. Rick Perry's political power in the state are not much changed, and they suggest that the governor will reassert his powerful presence in Texas politics now that he is back.
Which groups in Texas believe most strongly that their members of Congress don't represent people "like them"? Liberal and moderate whites.
No campaign postmortem will be complete without noting the huge role played by Barack Obama in the 2010 governor's race.
So how to create a likely voter model? Campaign pollsters typically use a combination of past voting history — available off the registered voter list — and current interest and engagement. Those who have voted in the past, as well as those who are jazzed about voting this year, tend to get into the likely electorate.
Is the anti-career-politician, pro-outsider-businessman mood palpable in Texas? Yes. Is this preference for private-sector experience related to vote choice in the governor’s race? No.
Six points separate Rick Perry and Bill White, but that's not all there is to it: The pattern of partisan preferences evident in the latest polling suggests that the Republican Party still holds a substantial baseline advantage over the Democrats in Texas.