Keyword: 2022 Election
In the latest Second Reading podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank look at issues at the intersection of business and state government likely to get attention in the Texas Legislature in 2023.
In the first Second Reading podcast of 2023, Jim Henson and Josh Blank look at signals from state leadership as the Comptroller's revised budget revenue estimate lands amidst the kick-of of the 88th Texas Legislature.
In the last Second Reading podcast of 2022, Jim Henson and Josh Blank look at several data points from Texas Politics Project polling to wrap up 2022 and anticipate dynamics in Texas politics in 2023. For a taste of what's in the podcast, see the links below the player.
A look at the geography beneath the status-quo-preserving results of the 2022 Texas election reveal gradual patterns of change that both confirm and confound the received knowledge about the state’s most recent elections and the longer-run trajectory of the state. Looking at the distribution of the vote between the two major parties from among urban, suburban, and rural counties* reveals patterns that are more subtle than the Republican tromping of Democrats in statewide and legislative races might initially suggest.
Second Reading Podcast: A look at early voting and other other tea leaves in the final week of the 2022 election
November 2: Updated with University of Houston/Hobby School poll, which found Abbott leading O'Rourke 53%-40% among likely voters.
For all the upheaval in the state over the last two years – month after month of screaming and fighting over COVID measures (amidst tens of thousands of COVID-related deaths), persistent threats to democratic institutions that broke into open violence on January 6 and have simmered ever since, the power outage that killed hundreds and brought discomfort and suffering to millions in Texas, the mass killing of children at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, the overturning of Roe v Wade and the resulting deterioration of health care and autonomy for millions of Texas women – the Texas electorate as likely constituted seem poised to vote for continuity rather than change. This situation is the result of long-standing, and only slowly changing, characteristics of the Texas political system being reinforced by a strong national dynamic favoring Republicans.
As Election Day approaches, many are watching early voting patterns for indications of total turnout and signs of partisan advantages (or disadvantage). However, intepreting the 2022 early vote is tricky, and interpretation of patterns requires keeping several factors in mind. Many of the most obvious comparisons being made in efforts to find leading indicators of election outcomes are more complicated than they appear. Some of these complications arise from the data collection and reporting by the secretary of state. Others considerations arise from well established differences between mid-term and presidential election years, and from the unique circumstances of both the 2018 and 2022 elections.