Keyword: Democratic Primary

The 2022 Texas Primaries Answer Some Questions, Raise Some Others as the Winners Move On Amidst a lot of Run-Offs

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

The first round of the Texas primary election is behind us, though many of the campaigns will continue with significant statewide, legislative, and Congressional run-off elections in both parties. While there have already been a lot of hot takes and some floating of big themes, we provide a few questions and observations that have occurred to us in the post-election haze. There will be more to come. 

Read more...

Texas 2022 Primary Electorate: Comparisons with the Partisan Electorate

| By: Joshua Blank and Jim Henson

It is commonly understood, based on observation of the actions of legislators and other elected officials, that primary voters tend to be more extreme versions of the party overall – but with little data brought to bear on this observation other than the actions of the officials this process produces. The most recent University of Texas / Texas Politics Project poll, and its oversample of primary voters, allow us to examine the ways in which the Republican and Democratic Primary electorates compare to the overall electorates.

Read more...

Second Reading Podcast: A conversation about the just released University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll

| By: Jim Henson

In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson talks with co-director of the University of Texas / Texas Politics Project poll and UT Government Department professor Daron Shaw and Texas Politics Project research director Josh Blank about the primary and general election results in the latest UT / TXP Survey.

Read more...

Quick takeaways from the first wave of October 2021 UT/Texas Tribune Poll results

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

The first wave of October, 2021 UT/Texas Tribune Poll results released by The Texas Tribune today focus on the 2022 election, covered in a story by Patrick Svitek, and Texans’ general attitudes toward elections, voting, and a little on redistricting, covered in a story by Cassandra Pollock. Look for more results early next week in the Tribune. On the whole, the results paint an interesting portrait of the public opinion terrain in the state a year out from the 2022 election. We’ll follow up with more analysis of the results in the coming weeks when we can connect different strands of material that won’t be rolled out until early next week. For today, here are a few first-takes on today’s results.

Read more...

The Second Reading Podcast: Run-Off Election Results and Assessing How Competitive Texas will be in November (Recorded July 21, 2020)

| By: Texas Politics Project

For this week's Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Joshua Blank discuss the run-off election results, with a particular focus on the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, as well as the first (of likely many) conversations assessing Texas' competitiveness in the 2020 elections.

Read more...

As Cornyn and Hegar take the stage, has the script for the U.S. Senate campaign in Texas changed?

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

Bereft of a candidate with statewide stature and drowned out by the roar of the COVID-19 pandemic and the related economic calamity, the statewide run-off election to choose a Democratic nominee to challenge John Cornyn’s bid for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate limped to a conclusion Tuesday night, when self-declared outsider M.J. Hegar defeated longtime State Senator Royce West of Dallas by about 4 percentage points. The Texas-politics-as usual feel of this likely evasion, amplified by such a radically changed political environment  – the renewed confrontation with racism, the pandemic, the associated economic crash – raise a question: Do fundamental assumptions about both candidates’ positioning made in the early stages of the campaign last year still work for them? 

Read more...

The Mood in the State as (Some) Texans Vote in Primary Run-Offs

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

While we should expect only a very small fraction of the eligible electorate, or even of registered voters, to show up for run-off elections, there is a pretty good crop of run-off races for party nominations. The composition of the electorate is the big unknown here, which has made any early public polling in these races difficult, and, in particular, has contributed to making the public polling in the U.S. Senate run-off a pretty speculative enterprise. But we do have a lot of data from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted very recently (June 19-29), as well as a lot of comparison and trend data, to illustrate the volatile and generally worried mood of the electorate. 

Read more...

As the Democratic old guard frets, Bernie Sanders finds a Texas foothold

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

Sanders' success in Texas is an expression of a real change that, given the very demographics Democrats have been anticipating for years, will continue to shape the party’s electoral fortunes.

Read more...

Health care and its discontents loom over Texas Democrats in 2020

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

Texas Democrats, like Democrats elsewhere, put health care at or near the top of their lists of most important problems. But they have significant disagreements among themselves over what to do about it.

Read more...

Drilling down in the 2020 election and impeachment items in the February 2020 UT/TT Poll

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

The February 2020 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll caught Bernie Sanders’ apparent rise and troubling times for Joe Biden in the 2020 Democratic presidential nominating contest, even as the race changes on a seemingly day-to-day basis heading into the end of the beginning of the delegate-earning phase of the contest. While the flow of the Democratic race remains rapid and unpredictable, Texans’ views of Congress are still, deep, and fetid. The impact of the impeachment process and its outcome were similarly settled, especially along partisan lines, though the attitudes of independents could potentially produce tricky undercurrents for incumbents. Donald Trump is getting some credit in Texas for a good economy even as his other job approval ratings remain deeply divided. Beneath all the Democratic presidential shifting and Trumpian chaos, the Democrats attempting to earn the right to challenge John Cornyn continued to struggle for attention -- good news for the incumbent. Find more on these points below.

Read more...

Pages