Keyword: Donald Trump

Indictments of Russians Land Amidst Strong Partisan Views in Texas of Russian Meddling, Donald Trump Connection, Mueller

| By: Jim Henson

Among Texas voters, there is a now well established pattern in which views of even some of the basic facts of the Mueller investigation — like whether it has uncovered any crimes (it has) — appear heavily influenced by partisanship. As the Mueller investigation and Russian interference in the election hit the headlines once again, we round up relevant results for University of Texas / Texas Tribune polling (which largely resemble national results on similar items).

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The Supreme Court, the Politics of Abortion, and the 2018 Elections

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

The University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll has asked numerous questions about abortion over the last 10 years, including a now-consistent item on whether or not Texas voters view themselves as “pro-life” or “pro-choice.” Overall, according to June 2018 UT/TT polling data, 44 percent of Texas voters describe themselves as pro-life while 39 percent describe themselves a pro-choice. There are, of course, unsurprising partisan differences. Among the state’s majority party, Republicans overwhelmingly describe themselves as pro-life (68 percent), about equal to the share of Democrats who describe themselves as pro-choice (66 percent).

But these broad labels, like the topic of abortion itself, hide complexities likely to shape the electoral environment that Democrats and Republicans will confront should the Fall be spent on the confirmation of a justice expected to overturn, or severely curtail abortion rights. 

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Public Opinion in Texas and Donald Trump’s Nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

Among those anticipating President Donald Trump’s announcement of his nominee to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy on the United States Supreme Court, Texas political candidates and even some voters will be watching to see how the president’s choice plays with Texas voters. Below are a few public opinion data points from the archives of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll that may help anticipate the public response. 

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A look at Spring Polling vs. Fall Voting in Texas

| By: Joshua Blank and Jim Henson

 we've compiled statewide polling results from April through July for elections going back to 2010 for President, Senator, and Governor. While it's certainly fair to say that Cruz's lead over O'Rourke is not as stout as one might expect given historical polling (in the polling data below, the lead for the GOP candidate at this point in the election cycle is 9 points on average), there's little evidence from the eventual election results that Cruz's lead isn't likely to grow as the campaign season begins in earnest, let alone when voters actually begin to cast their ballots. This is, of course, dependent on how much past patterns hold in the present and near future.

 

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Texas Republican Women’s Support for Donald Trump Persists Even in Stormy Times

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

Texas Republican women's support of Donald Trump coexists with their tepid reaction to the ongoing attention to both everyday and high-profile cases of sexual harassment and violence. The gender politics triggered by Trump’s record with at least some of the women he encountered on the road from celebrity to the White House didn’t prevent millions of women from doing their part to vote him into office. And evidence from Texas offers little indication that the often explosive gender politics in the wake of Trump’s election have altered the fundamentals of Trump’s wellspring of support among Republican women.

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Pragmatic Approach to Changes to the U.S. Census Trumped by Nativist Attitudes in Texas GOP

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

Given the array of attitudes toward immigration and citizenship among the voters who dominate both the selection of GOP statewide candidates as well as the selection of winners in the general election, these elected officials' remain eternally vigilant in their efforts to remain on the right side of the electorate – and each other – on all things related to immigration. The result is that they continue to channel the nativist impulses that course through their base, for better or for worse when it comes to major policy consequences of the Trump Administration's proposed changes to the U.S. Census.

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Texas Minds Increasingly Made Up on Russia, Election, FBI

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

For years, Texas had a mythical independence that has somehow insulated the state’s culture and its politics from the nasty and increasingly deep-seated divisions that characterize so many other domains of American life. That’s now changed. 

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Takeaways from Texas: Expect Republican candidates nationwide to snuggle up to Trump

| By: Jim Henson

Texas, however unique in its own eyes, remains on the American political map, and its nation’s-first primary election expressed some national dynamics — and may provide some lessons, as national attention shifts to primaries elsewhere in the country.

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Springing back: Texas Data Points from the Week in Politics, March 16, 2018

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

On the Texas side of politics, this week felt like a flashback to last Spring, as the anti-sanctuary city law, the bathroom bill, and the general tone of the 85th Legislature all got rehearings. It’s hard not to feel yet again that there are much bigger goings-on nationally, as students not on spring break staged a national walk-out to protest inaction on gun policy, the Democrats won a squeaker in a Pennsylvania special election, and we discovered what many presupposed, that Special Counsel Mueller has some questions about the Trump business empire and its connections to Russians. Read on for Texas public opinion data linked to some of the big stories from the week in politics.

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The Texas Public Opinion Landscape as Texas Kicks Off the 2018 Primary Season

| By: Jim Henson and Joshua Blank

With NPR referencing Texas' first in the nation primary and Chuck Todd using last weekend’s Meet the Press “Data Download” segment to develop his “hunch” about a Democratic wave in Texas based on early voting totals, the Texas primary elections will be in the spotlight this week. The eve of primary election day seems a good time to review the non-trial ballot polling data from the February University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll. We asked several questions unrelated to the horse races – about which attitudes were fairly underdeveloped when we were collecting data, as expected – that provide some information about the political terrain upon which the primaries will be fought by a small sliver of the Texas electorate.

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