Blog
The political center is having a moment in the U.S. Senate race in Texas, but it's not likely to last
In both the Presidential and U.S. Senate races, efforts by the candidates to portray their opponents as extremists while presenting themselves as comparatively moderate and bipartisan has had mixed effects. Overall, this messaging is resonating more with candidates’ partisans in the state than with their opponents’ base voters, making these tactics likely to be more successful at mobilizing partisans than at persuading the opposition's voters that their own candidate is too radical. Nor do the ostensible efforts to scare independents with claims of ideological extremism seem to be having the effects the campaigns desire.
A closer look at the University of Texas / Texas Politics illuminates how the efforts at contrasting moderation with extremism have fared – but also suggests that the surprising attraction of the middle in Texas politics is likely to be fleeting once the U.S. Senate race is settled and behind us.
Focusing on the track, not just the horses, as the 2024 race enters the final stretch in Texas
The closer we get to Election Day, the more attention gets paid to horse race results in polling – often at the expense of a deeper look into what polling can tell us about the context of that election. Much of University of Texas/Texas Politics Project polling conducted during the election season aims to illuminate the context of the election and, maybe even more important now that our polling project is well into its second decade, the arc of the ongoing developments in Texas politics.We’ve gathered some of the results from the recently released October poll (conducted from the 2nd through the 10th) to give some more depth to the trial ballots – and to capture some of the contextual elements of the political universe in Texas as the 2024 election enters its final days. (And, to be as gentle as possible, to start thinking about the upcoming legislative session and what promises to be a very active and interesting round of elections for statewide offices in 2026.)
Second Reading Podcast: Down to the wire: results from the final UT/Texas Politics Project Poll before Election Day
The UT/Texas Politics Project Poll team talk about what the October 2024 UT/TxPP poll tells us about the election in Texas and the broader trajectory of Texas electoral politics.
With voting about to start in Texas, Trump and Cruz maintain single-digit leads in new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll
With early voting about to kick off in Texas, the latest 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds former president Donald Trump leading Vice-President Kamala Harris 51% to 46% among likely voters in the presidential race in Texas. Green Party candidate Jill Stein was the choice of 2%, while Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver received 1%. In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz holds a 7-point lead among likely voters over his Democratic challenger, Congressman Colin Allred, 51% to 44%, with Libertarian Ted Brown the choice of 4%.
Job approval trends for Texas statewide incumbents and other trend data from the Texas Politics Project poll data archive (October 2024 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll update)
This page compiles graphics for trends in job approval ratings of the current statewide incumbents (Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senators) that Texans rate on every poll . Bookmark the page for easy reference – we’ve also added similar graphics for trends in Texans’ assessment of conditions in Texas and the U.S., and some archival results for comparison with leaders no longer in office.
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Second Reading Podcast: A race to the middle? A look at the Cruz/Allred race
Jim Henson and Joshua Blank talk about polling and other context in the U.S. Senate race in Texas between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, and Democratic challenger Colin Allred.
Second Reading Podcast: Public opinion and other context for the Speaker Race in the Texas House of Representatives
Jim Henson and Josh Blank look at Texas Politics Project polling related to Speaker of the House Dade Phelan, and what it contributes (and doesn’t) to understanding the dynamics of the current challenges to Phelan’s efforts to continue as Speaker amidst opposition from within the Texas GOP.
A look at Texans' Views of Vance and Walz as the VP Debate Looms
The vice presidential candidates – Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Walz – will get their evening to shine next week as they participate in what is likely to be their only debate of the 2024 campaign at 8:00 PM Central Time on Tuesday evening, October 1. The August 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll was fielded after the announcement of both vice presidential picks, and included items assessing the extent to which Texas voters hold favorable, or unfavorable opinions of each.
The effects of two decades of call-and-response between Texas Republican voters and their elected leaders on "election integrity"
A new round of interventions in the voting process by Texas state officials coincides with the reemergence of widespread doubts about elections and voting among Republican voters in the most recent statewide polling by the Texas Politics Project. The latest actions of state officials and new evidence of the persistence of doubts about the conduct of elections among Republican voters emerge from the rhetoric and policy of elected officials that have shaped public attitudes since the turn of the 21st century. These latest manifestations of declining trust in the electoral process, inflamed by Donald Trump's insistent propagation of the fiction that elections are being corrupted by the votes of undocumented immigrants, suggest that Texans are approaching the Rubicon in terms of their ability to maintain shared trust in the state's deployment of democracy.