A summary of public polling on the Texas Governor's race among likely voters since June 2014.
The October 2014 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll found Republican candidates favored over Democratic candidates by substantial margins in several statewide general election contests, with the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Attorney General Greg Abbott, leading the Democratic candidate, state Senator Wendy Davis of Fort Worth, by a 16-point margin, 54 percent to 38 percent. Six percent of likely voters chose Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass, and Green Candidate Brandon Parmer was the choice of 2 percent.
The third wave results of the CBS/NYT/YouGov Battleground Tracker were released today, and show Abbott leading Davis by a 14-point margin, a 4-point gain for Davis since the last wave of polling.
Republicans appear poised to again sweep this year's statewide elections. But dig deeper into the data and you'll find faint signs of long-term promise for Texas Democrats, even if their standard-bearer loses in November.
Same As It Ever Was? Brief Soundings on Public Opinion in Texas from the CBS/NYT/YouGov Texas Senate Release
The first release of the third wave of the massive New York Times/CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker included results in the 2014 Senate races as well as results for the "national attitudes" items.
The 2014 Texas Lyceum Poll finds Greg Abbott leading Wendy Davis 49%-40% among likely voters. Libertarian and Green Party candidates Kathie Glass and Brandon Parmer each garnered two points, and eight percent declined to choose a candidate. The poll was conducted from September 11-25, and had an overall sample size of 1000 respondents. The trial ballot results were among a sub-group of 666 likely voters, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.80 percentage points.
Given the high-level discourse that pervades The Texas Tribune Festival, it may seem uncouth to scrutinize the event in the context of polling. But it's a useful way to analyze what was happening onstage.
By looking at the emotional dynamics underlying the Abbott and Davis campaigns' advertisements, one can get a clearer sense of how each really views the 2014 Texas Governor's race.
Recent polls have painted two divergent pictures of the Greg Abbott-Wendy Davis race. Here's a rundown of what that means and what to pay attention to as November draws near.