The 2022 Texas Primaries Answer Some Questions, Raise Some Others as the Winners Move On Amidst a lot of Run-Offs
The first round of the Texas primary election is behind us, though many of the campaigns will continue with significant statewide, legislative, and Congressional run-off elections in both parties. While there have already been a lot of hot takes and some floating of big themes, we provide a few questions and observations that have occurred to us in the post-election haze. There will be more to come.
Resources for the 2022 Texas primaries and the State of the Union Address
We've compiled a brief list of Texas Politics Project resources for those who, out of vocation or avocation, will be keeping an eye on the 2022 Texas primary elections and President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. There are of course a ton of shared crib sheets and Twitter accounts to follow out there, but I’ll let you sort that out per your preferences. But if you have sources you think are particularly good and might be flying under the radar, by all means, send them along
Biden Underwater: A look at the President’s Standing among Texas Voters on the eve of the State of the Union Address
The State of the Union address is a chance for presidents to frame their successes, condition their failures, and overall, try to affect the trajectory of one’s presidency by shaping public awareness and congressional support for the president’s agenda. Biden faces challenges on multiple fronts that make it highly unlikely, or at least highly challenging, for his speech to overcome a broadly negative political environment.
Texas polling and Trump's influence on Republican attitudes toward the Russian invasion of Ukraine
A look back at Texas attitudes toward matters related to Russia during the Trump presidency suggests how Donald Trump’s strange relations with Vladimir Putin and Russia influenced a reshaping of partisan views of the U.S.’s Cold War enemy – and provides a glimpse into the uncertainty around Republican voters’ views of the U.S. response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This data also provides an opportunity to note the continuity between Russian efforts to weaken civil society in the U.S. by amplifying domestic political hostilities, and Putin’s larger cultural and geopolitical ambitions – now on clear display in Ukraine.
Second Reading Podcast: The GOP reboot of public education
In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank look at GOP efforts to refocus the public education debate in Texas.
Texas 2022 Primary Electorate: Comparisons with the Partisan Electorate
It is commonly understood, based on observation of the actions of legislators and other elected officials, that primary voters tend to be more extreme versions of the party overall – but with little data brought to bear on this observation other than the actions of the officials this process produces. The most recent University of Texas / Texas Politics Project poll, and its oversample of primary voters, allow us to examine the ways in which the Republican and Democratic Primary electorates compare to the overall electorates.
Texas trend data on Texas attitudes toward the COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to curb its impact (February 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll update)
The February 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll adds a ninth assessment of Texans’ attitudes about the coronavirus pandemic to the Texas Politics Project polling data archive, adding to data collected in batteries from polls conducted in April, June, and October of 2020, and February, April, June, August and October of 2021. The time series allows reporters, researchers, elected leaders, public health officials, and the public a view of how Texans’ concerns about COVID, behaviors during the pandemic, and evaluations of the official responses have changed throughout a year of pandemic conditions in Texas.
Second Reading Podcast: A conversation about the just released University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll
In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson talks with co-director of the University of Texas / Texas Politics Project poll and UT Government Department professor Daron Shaw and Texas Politics Project research director Josh Blank about the primary and general election results in the latest UT / TXP Survey.
Abbott leads O’Rourke 47-37 in projected 2022 gubernatorial contest amid signs of fallout from the 87th Legislature and the corrosive impact of GOP rejection of the 2020 presidential election
The release of the February 2022 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll coincides with the beginning of early voting in the Texas primaries, so trial ballots and all things election-related in the poll are likely to attract the most interest. Incumbent governor Greg Abbott leads former Congressman Beto O’Rourke 47% to 37% in a hypothetical match-up in the November General Election. In their primary races, Abbott remains above the run-off threshold, while O’Rourke is unsurprisingly a virtual consensus candidate among Democrats. Beyond the horse races, the poll paints a picture of a state experiencing strong political crosswinds in several policy areas. In some familiar issue areas, public opinion appears closely divided as a result of sharp and intense differences among partisans. In others, majorities (albeit often slim ones) oppose the direction state policy headed in the last legislative session, frequently as a result of broad Democratic opposition supplemented by divisions among Republicans.
Job approval trends for Texas statewide incumbents and other trend data from the Texas Politics Project poll data archive (February 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll update)
This page compiles graphics for trends in job approval ratings of the current incumbents (President, Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senators, U.S. President) that Texans assess on every poll. Bookmark the page for easy reference – we’ve also added similar graphics for trends in Texans’ assessment of conditions in Texas and the U.S., and some archival results for comparison with leaders no longer in office. This version updates the ratings with data from the Februrary 2022 University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll.