The gubernatorial debate between incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Beto ORourke in McAllen, Texas is likely to be the only time the two candidates will share a stage in the 2022 campaign. The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll has been exploring Texas attitudes related to the candidates and the broader context of the election over the last year, and got into extensive detail in our most recent poll, which was conducted from August 26-September 6. To provide context for tonight’s debate, we’ve gathered several results that illustrate how Texans view each of the candidates, their comparative levels of trust on the major issues emerging in the campaign, and more. This post is built for browsing
Second Reading Podcast: A conversation with state reporters about the 2022 elections in Georgia, Nevada, Ohio & Pennsylvania
In a special Second Reading Podcast, listen to a panel recorded at the 2022 Texas Tribune Festival last weekend with reporters covering the 2022 elections in four of the most competitive states in the country – Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Jim Henson talked with Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent, Greg Bluestein of The Atlanta Journal-Constituiton, Andy Chow, Statehouse correspondent for Ohio's NPR and PBS stations, and Angela Couloumbis of Spotlight PA about the dynamics in these four key states in a panel recorded Saturday September 24 at this year's Tribfest in Austin.
Second Reading Podcast: The 2022 election in Texas through the lens of issue attitudes in the latest UT/Texas Politics Project Poll
In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank discuss results from the recent University of Texas/Texas Politics Poll on issues in the Texas gubernatorial election in November, including abortion, border security, the economy, gun safety and the Robb Elementary shooting, and more.
Second Reading Podcast: What the new UT/Texas Politics Project Poll says about the 2022 election environment in Texas
New UT/Texas Politics Project Poll: Abbott maintains 45%-40% lead over O’Rourke; 52% support busing migrants out of Texas
The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds Gov. Greg Abbott sustaining a polling lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 45%-40%, albeit one that has narrowed as the gubernatorial campaign enters its final and most public phase. Beyond the top lines of the gubernatorial trial ballot, the poll results illuminate an election environment in which the gubernatorial contest between Abbott and O’Rourke is the most competitive race for the office Texas has seen in decades. Yet the results also reveal the advantages Abbott still enjoys among the Texas electorate, and the significant obstacles O’Rourke still faces in putting together a coalition of voters capable of overcoming the advantages, political and structural, that Abbott enjoys.
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In a new Second Reading Podcast, James Henson & Joshua Blank talk about President Biden's new offensive on the threat to democracy posed by forces in the Republican Party – and how much it will resonate in GOP-dominated Texas.
There are Democratic votes to be had in rural Texas. Looking back at polling between 2015 and June 2022, on average over that time span, 61.75% of rural Texas voters have identified as Republicans and 25.61% as Democrats. The data don’t demonstrate significant fluctuations in the party identification patterns of Texas’ rural voters over time, though the Republican share has not been less than 64% in 6 UT/Texas Politics Project polls conducted between June 2021 and June 2022. Democratic identification among rural voters has stood at 22% in each of three surveys conducted so far in 2022. The remainder of the rural registered voter pool, 12.57% on average, identify as independent, by which we mean voters who neither identify with, nor consistently lean toward, either party. So while a non-trivial share of Democrats appear to remain in Texas’ rural areas, in the recent term, the GOP advantage does seem to be slightly on the increase — consistent with broader trends in party system dynamics.
In a new Second Reading Podcast, James Henson & Joshua Blank assess the potential impact of Texas gubernatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke's campaign efforts in rural parts of the state.
In a new Second Reading Podcast, James Henson & Joshua Blank talk about the politics of Republican responses to the aftermath of the Mar-a-Lago search, and the broader context of the decay of democratic norms and institutions.