Governor Abbott’s announcement of his “broad based school safety plan” contained a list of actions he said could be taken immediately as well as a list of proposals requiring legislative action. Among the most prominent proposals were several that focus attention on mental health as a means of preventing mass shootings – a theme that emerges in polling in Texas and nationally on mass shootings – as well as a host of other proposals that appear to focus on early detection, security measures at schools, and measures that would provide a small degree of what what might call “gun control” – including adding 17 year olds to the definition of “children” that requires adults to use child safety locks on guns, and required reporting of lost or stolen guns. None of the major proposals for addressing the supply of guns and access to them (such as broadening background checks or limiting types of weapons) found their way into the governor’s press conference, which prefaced tweaks to gun laws with a reminder of his record of staunch support of Second Amendment rights.
We’ve gathered some relevant results from the dozens of items on gun rights, gun control, and gun violence that we’ve included in University of Texas / Texas Tribune Polling over the last several years, during which there have been at least 180 school shootings. They provide some context for what the governor included and left out in his proposals. NOTE: here is a link to the Governor's "School and Firearm Safery Action Plan,"(pdf), released after this post was initially published.)
The October 2017 UT/TT poll asked Texans what factor was most to blame for mass shootings. A large plurality of Democrats blamed current gun laws. The most frequent response among Republicans blamed failures in the mental health system, though there was less consensus among Republicans than among Democrats.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Failures of the mental health system | 24% |
| Current gun laws | 21% |
| Drug use | 2% |
| Violence in popular culture | 5% |
| Spread of extremist points of view on the internet | 13% |
| Insufficient security at public buildings | 5% |
| Inflamatory language from political commentators | 4% |
| Unstable family situations | 5% |
| Media attention given to perpetrators | 10% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 10% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Failures of the mental health system | 16% | 33% | 28% |
| Current gun laws | 43% | 12% | 4% |
| Drug use | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Violence in popular culture | 1% | 7% | 9% |
| Spread of extremist points of view on the internet | 12% | 9% | 16% |
| Insufficient security at public buildings | 6% | 7% | 4% |
| Inflamatory language from political commentators | 3% | 6% | 4% |
| Unstable family situations | 3% | 4% | 8% |
| Media attention given to perpetrators | 5% | 11% | 15% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 9% | 11% | 9% |
Looking at more basic attitudes toward gun laws, these results suggest some of the underlying attitudes influencing views of the causes of mass shootings (and possible policy responses).
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| More strict | 52% |
| Less strict | 13% |
| Left as they are now | 31% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 5% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| More strict | 86% | 38% | 25% |
| Less strict | 4% | 16% | 19% |
| Left as they are now | 6% | 41% | 51% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 4% | 5% | 5% |
Similarly, the partisan patterns in views of the relationship between guns and safety can be expected to inform responses to approaches that emphasize training for expanding armed security, whether it be marshalls or teachers and administrators.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Safer | 38% |
| Less safe | 41% |
| No impact | 14% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 7% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safer | 5% | 45% | 66% |
| Less safe | 75% | 31% | 13% |
| No impact | 14% | 15% | 14% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 6% | 10% | 7% |
Within all of these results, the more gun-friendly views of the most engaged Republicans who identify with the Tea Party (and vote in GOP primaries) shape the politics of both attempts by the Governor to shape the agenda in this area, and any likely action by the legislature.
| category | Democrat | Republican | Tea Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| Failures of the mental health system | 16% | 31% | 27% |
| Current gun laws | 46% | 5% | 3% |
| Drug use | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| Violence in popular culture | 2% | 7% | 13% |
| Spread of extremist points of view on the internet | 10% | 14% | 15% |
| Insufficient security at public buildings | 4% | 12% | 0% |
| Inflamatory language from political commentators | 4% | 2% | 8% |
| Unstable family situations | 3% | 7% | 8% |
| Media attention given to perpetrators | 5% | 14% | 17% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 9% | 6% | 6% |
| category | Democrat | Republican | Tea Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| More strict | 88% | 35% | 11% |
| Less strict | 2% | 11% | 38% |
| Left as they are now | 6% | 51% | 50% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| category | Democrat | Republican | Tea Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safer | 4% | 58% | 85% |
| Less safe | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| No impact | 14% | 19% | 4% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 6% | 7% | 3% |