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Latest Analysis

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Second Reading Podcast: Breaking Down 2026 Election Estimates in the Latest Texas Politics Project Poll

James Henson and Josh Blank look at the trial ballot results in the U.S. Senate contest in Texas as well as for other statewide races in the latest UT/Texas Politics Project Poll. Listener warning: it gets a little wonky. This episode was recorded by Scott Leben and mixed by Brianna Padron.

Latest UT/Texas Politics Poll Finds Historic Levels of Competition in Texas Midterm Elections

The latest University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll finds Democratic candidates with narrow advantages within the poll's margin of error among likely voters in most statewide races. Economic concerns remain high and front-of-mind for voters.

Second Reading: Talking 2026 Election Politics in Texas with Ross Ramsey

Ross Ramsey, co-founder and former Managing Editor of The Texas Tribune, joins James Henson to put the 2026 election campaign in perspective. They discuss the factors making the state more competitive, and how deep the change in Texas politics evident this cycle go.

Texas 2026 U.S. Senate Poll Tracker

Check back for updates on all non-partisan polling of the U.S. Senate race race between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state representative James Talarico.

Texas Data Points

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  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]"
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
  • More Respondents were asked, "On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote. [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND“Don’t know” option]" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
Overall Party ID Democratic Identification Republican Identification Ideology Liberalism Conservatism Race Gender Location Age Group Education Religiosity Fundamentalism

Latest Poll

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Newest UT/Texas Politics Project Poll: October 2026

October 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll: A look at the November elections, Texans’ still developing attitudes towards AI and data centers, economic concerns, Iran, and more.

Trends from the Texas Politics Project Polling Archive

The October Poll continues a long time-series measuring Texans evaluations of state and national leadership, as well as the candidates seeking office in 2026.

Results from the October UT/TXP Poll

Check out all the results from the October survey in one place, with easy to explore graphics, downloadable in multiple formats.

October UT/TxPP Data Archive

Download all the data from the UT/TxPP polling archive, including toplines, crosstabs, and raw data files from the October UT/TxPP Poll.

Data Archive

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October 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll

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June 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll

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August 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll

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April 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll

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