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Senate Race Polling Reveals Republican Turnout Challenges – and the Trajectory of the Texas GOP

The main takeaway from hypothetical head-to-heads in the U.S. Senate race in Texas isn’t that Talarico is “ahead” – it’s that voter mobilization may be the main challenge to Republican success in the 2026 general election.

Second Reading: The Races for Governor & Lt. Governor, Texas Views of Donald Trump, and Other Election Atmospherics

In a new Second Reading podcast, James Henson and Josh Blank look at the quasi-normal looking polling on the general election matchups for Texas Governor and Lt. Governor, and assess macrolevel indicators of the political mood in Texas.

Second Reading: Undercurrents in the Texas U.S. Senate Race and Other Reveals in the Latest Texas Politics Project Poll

James Henson and Joshua Blank look at highlights from the just-released UT/Texas Politics Project poll, including resurgent concerns about prices and the economy, the sharp partisan differences fueling overall opposition to the U.S. war with Iran, and some interesting underlying numbers in the U.S. Senate race and the Cornyn/Paxton/Talarico triangle

Texas Politics Project Time Series: Texans' Views of the Economy

The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll regularly asks Texas voters to provide their assessment of national, state, and personal economic conditions. In this post, trend graphics for those views are presented and updated with each survey.


Texas Data Points

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  • More Respondents were asked, "How would you rate the job Donald Trump is doing as president? Would you say that you..."
  • More Respondents were asked, "How would you rate the job Donald Trump is doing as president? Would you say that you..." Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
  • More Respondents were asked, "How would you rate the job Donald Trump is doing as president? Would you say that you..." Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
  • More Respondents were asked, "How would you rate the job Donald Trump is doing as president? Would you say that you..." Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.

Latest Poll

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Data Archive

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