While gathering some polling data for revisions I’m making to lecture notes for intro to Texas politics and government courses, I belatedly noticed that we have an unusual amount of job approval ratings for the new Speaker of the House as a result of the increased number of polls we’ve conducted so far this year.
Not surprisingly, the ratings of the first-term speaker have been fairly stable over the session. For those watching the legislative session, it’s been a sometimes volatile and largely unpredictable ride, and one of the secondary themes has been the politics of the ongoing solidification of Phelan’s position. But Phelan, like Dennis Bonnen and even Joe Straus before him (at least for the first few years of his speakership), is a blank slate at best to most Texas voters: about 60% consistently have no view of him. Among those who have an opinion about him, the expected partisan and ideological patterns are in evidence so far. Among Republicans who express a view, about 80% approve. Among the same category of presumably more attentive Republicans, Bonnen’s approval was in the ballpark, about 75%, in June 2020.
I’ve included graphics below of the findings about Phelan. For comparison, I’ve also included some snapshots of Bonnen’s ratings, including an item we asked about awareness of the former Speaker's diffiulties after the 2019 session. And for the most dedicated, trend data from the last few years of Joe Straus’ approval ratings.
Dade Phelan
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 6% |
| Approve somewhat | 14% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 26% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 8% |
| Disapprove strongly | 14% |
| Don't know | 31% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Approve somewhat | 4% | 16% | 22% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 18% | 31% | 31% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 12% | 7% | 5% |
| Disapprove strongly | 29% | 13% | 3% |
| Don't know | 35% | 32% | 27% |
| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 4% | 11% | 15% |
| Approve somewhat | 14% | 27% | 23% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 44% | 30% | 30% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 7% | 4% | 7% |
| Disapprove strongly | 8% | 3% | 2% |
| Don't know | 24% | 25% | 23% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 6% |
| Approve somewhat | 13% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 29% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 8% |
| Disapprove strongly | 13% |
| Don't know | 31% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 4% | 2% | 9% |
| Approve somewhat | 6% | 9% | 20% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 21% | 34% | 35% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 11% | 10% | 5% |
| Disapprove strongly | 25% | 14% | 2% |
| Don't know | 33% | 32% | 28% |
| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 7% | 6% | 16% |
| Approve somewhat | 21% | 24% | 21% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 34% | 36% | 27% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 5% | 2% | 7% |
| Disapprove strongly | 7% | 2% | 5% |
| Don't know | 25% | 31% | 24% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 7% |
| Approve somewhat | 15% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 30% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 6% |
| Disapprove strongly | 12% |
| Don't know | 30% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 3% | 4% | 11% |
| Approve somewhat | 7% | 8% | 23% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 26% | 35% | 33% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 8% | 7% | 4% |
| Disapprove strongly | 24% | 9% | 2% |
| Don't know | 32% | 39% | 26% |
| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 6% | 12% | 12% |
| Approve somewhat | 17% | 31% | 22% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 37% | 26% | 38% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Disapprove strongly | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Don't know | 33% | 25% | 25% |
Dennis Bonnen
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 6% |
| Approve somewhat | 17% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 25% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 10% |
| Disapprove strongly | 16% |
| Don't know | 26% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 1% | 3% | 10% |
| Approve somewhat | 6% | 15% | 27% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 16% | 32% | 31% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 16% | 9% | 5% |
| Disapprove strongly | 28% | 13% | 7% |
| Don't know | 33% | 28% | 20% |
| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 6% | 8% | 14% |
| Approve somewhat | 30% | 30% | 28% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 32% | 34% | 28% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 2% | 6% | 6% |
| Disapprove strongly | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| Don't know | 24% | 19% | 19% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 8% |
| Approve somewhat | 18% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 31% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 6% |
| Disapprove strongly | 10% |
| Don't know | 28% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 2% | 0% | 14% |
| Approve somewhat | 8% | 23% | 26% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 28% | 36% | 32% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 9% | 3% | 3% |
| Disapprove strongly | 19% | 8% | 1% |
| Don't know | 33% | 30% | 24% |
| category | Leaning conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 6% | 17% | 15% |
| Approve somewhat | 25% | 29% | 28% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 30% | 31% | 28% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Disapprove strongly | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Don't know | 33% | 19% | 24% |
Awareness of Bonnen political troubles
("How much have you heard about the controversy over a June 2019 meeting between the Speaker of the Texas House and the head of a political action committee?")
(October 2019)
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| A lot | 12% |
| Some | 19% |
| A little | 18% |
| Nothing at all | 50% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| A lot | 14% | 9% | 13% |
| Some | 20% | 11% | 20% |
| A little | 17% | 18% | 19% |
| Nothing at all | 50% | 63% | 48% |
| category | Leaning conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| A lot | 5% | 15% | 19% |
| Some | 22% | 24% | 17% |
| A little | 20% | 16% | 15% |
| Nothing at all | 52% | 45% | 49% |
Joe Straus
| Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't Know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 20% | 22% | 57% |
| February 2016 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| June 2016 | 19% | 24% | 56% |
| October 2016 | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| February 2017 | 23% | 23% | 53% |
| June 2017 | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| October 2017 | 23% | 27% | 49% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 31% | 11% | 58% |
| February 2016 | 30% | 14% | 57% |
| June 2016 | 30% | 13% | 56% |
| October 2016 | 30% | 11% | 59% |
| February 2017 | 36% | 12% | 52% |
| June 2017 | 37% | 18% | 46% |
| October 2017 | 31% | 21% | 47% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 10% | 35% | 56% |
| February 2016 | 13% | 27% | 60% |
| June 2016 | 12% | 37% | 51% |
| October 2016 | 11% | 35% | 53% |
| February 2017 | 12% | 35% | 52% |
| June 2017 | 15% | 39% | 46% |
| October 2017 | 18% | 34% | 48% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 35% | 18% | 47% |
| February 2016 | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| June 2016 | 30% | 20% | 50% |
| October 2016 | 27% | 19% | 52% |
| February 2017 | 41% | 20% | 40% |
| June 2017 | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| October 2017 | 25% | 43% | 34% |
(And why so much polling this year? We decided in collaboration with our partners at The Texas Tribune to do a mid-session poll in April this session, given the ongoing pandemic and then the February freeze and it’s fallout; and we were were fortunate to collaborate with colleagues the UT Energy Institute on a poll in March largely focused on early public reactions to the freeze and its impact, but which also included some of our standard assessments of political leaders and conditions in the state.)