With at least some Texans going to the polls to vote in primary elections, it's a good time to take a look at the ideological orientation of Texas partisans. In a piece in the Texas Tribune yesterday, we looked at the ideological dispositions of Texas Democrats in the context of the Democratic presidential nominating contest. That exercise informed (some of) the selection of the particular data snapshots presented below (like the perhaps suprising results from Democrats by location and age). But with the related processes of ideological sorting and increased polarization taking place in Texas (as in much of the rest of the US) and a number of contested primary races in Congressional and state legislative seats taking place, it's worth revisiting the state of ideological play in both parties – particularly given that judgements about the liberalism of Democratic voters and the conservatism of Repulican voters in the state will be part of the unfolding punditry and post-election analysis over the next 48 hours.
The graphics below present different looks at the responses in the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll to two recurring questions we ask of partisans.
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We may add more observations, time permitting, as Election Day unfolds. But for now, here are the snapshots, followed by graphics with trends in ideological identification for Democrats and Republicans for macrolevel context.
category | Total |
---|---|
Liberal enough | 30% |
Too liberal | 6% |
Not liberal enough | 44% |
Don't know/No opinion | 20% |
Category | Lean Democrat | Not very strong Democrat | Strong Democrat |
---|---|---|---|
Liberal enough | 24% | 29% | 35% |
Too liberal | 5% | 15% | 4% |
Not liberal enough | 51% | 32% | 44% |
Don't know/No opinion | 21% | 24% | 18% |
Category | Liberals | Moderates | Conservatives |
---|---|---|---|
Liberal enough | 29% | 31% | 39% |
Too liberal | 3% | 12% | 9% |
Not liberal enough | 54% | 25% | 30% |
Don't know/No opinion | 14% | 33% | 22% |
Category | White | Black | Hispanic |
---|---|---|---|
Liberal enough | 23% | 36% | 36% |
Too liberal | 5% | 7% | 7% |
Not liberal enough | 58% | 26% | 39% |
Don't know/No opinion | 14% | 32% | 17% |
Category | Male | Female |
---|---|---|
Liberal enough | 30% | 30% |
Too liberal | 9% | 4% |
Not liberal enough | 47% | 42% |
Don't know/No opinion | 14% | 23% |
Category | Urban | Suburban | Rural |
---|---|---|---|
Liberal enough | 32% | 30% | 28% |
Too liberal | 9% | 4% | 5% |
Not liberal enough | 43% | 46% | 37% |
Don't know/No opinion | 16% | 20% | 30% |
Category | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | 65+ |
---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal enough | 32% | 27% | 33% | 29% |
Too liberal | 6% | 10% | 4% | 4% |
Not liberal enough | 42% | 44% | 46% | 42% |
Don't know/No opinion | 20% | 20% | 17% | 25% |
Category | Lean Republican | Not very strong Republican | Strong Republican |
---|---|---|---|
Conservative enough | 55% | 49% | 59% |
Too conservative | 16% | 7% | 5% |
Not conservative enough | 24% | 30% | 30% |
Don't know/No opinion | 6% | 14% | 7% |
Category | Liberals | Moderates | Conservatives |
---|---|---|---|
Conservative enough | 0% | 43% | 60% |
Too conservative | 88% | 16% | 5% |
Not conservative enough | 12% | 20% | 29% |
Don't know/No opinion | 0% | 20% | 6% |
Category | Male | Female |
---|---|---|
Conservative enough | 57% | 55% |
Too conservative | 9% | 7% |
Not conservative enough | 31% | 24% |
Don't know/No opinion | 2% | 13% |
Category | Urban | Suburban | Rural |
---|---|---|---|
Conservative enough | 56% | 57% | 56% |
Too conservative | 7% | 10% | 6% |
Not conservative enough | 29% | 25% | 32% |
Don't know/No opinion | 9% | 8% | 6% |
Below are trend data in response to our standard 7-point ideological identification question. Note that leaners are folded in with the party they lean toward in each partisan category. (That is, respondents who initially identify as independent, but then indicate that they lean toward one party or the other, are included in the category of their partisan inclination. This leave a total of 9% independent.)
Poll | Liberal | Moderate | Conservative |
---|---|---|---|
July 2008 | 35% | 55% | 10% |
October 2008 | 44% | 36% | 19% |
March 2009 | 55% | 30% | 15% |
June 2009 | 49% | 34% | 17% |
October 2009 | 41% | 48% | 10% |
February 2010 | 44% | 45% | 11% |
May 2010 | 45% | 40% | 15% |
September 2010 | 52% | 34% | 14% |
October 2010 | 49% | 34% | 17% |
February 2011 | 43% | 38% | 19% |
May 2011 | 45% | 45% | 9% |
October 2011 | 54% | 36% | 10% |
February 2012 | 54% | 34% | 13% |
May 2012 | 38% | 51% | 11% |
October 2012 | 43% | 45% | 13% |
February 2013 | 52% | 34% | 14% |
June 2013 | 53% | 36% | 11% |
October 2013 | 43% | 43% | 14% |
February 2014 | 46% | 38% | 16% |
June 2014 | 47% | 40% | 13% |
October 2014 | 53% | 36% | 11% |
February 2015 | 45% | 40% | 15% |
June 2015 | 48% | 38% | 14% |
October 2015 | 52% | 37% | 10% |
February 2016 | 38% | 49% | 13% |
June 2016 | 44% | 48% | 8% |
October 2016 | 43% | 47% | 10% |
February 2017 | 44% | 44% | 11% |
June 2017 | 65% | 25% | 10% |
October 2017 | 63% | 27% | 10% |
February 2018 | 56% | 29% | 14% |
June 2018 | 64% | 28% | 9% |
October 2018 | 60% | 28% | 12% |
February 2019 | 67% | 23% | 10% |
June 2019 | 65% | 26% | 9% |
October 2019 | 50% | 33% | 17% |
February 2020 | 64% | 27% | 9% |
April 2020 | 62% | 29% | 10% |
June 2020 | 67% | 27% | 6% |
October 2020 | 63% | 29% | 8% |
February 2021 | 65% | 29% | 7% |
March 2021 | 62% | 31% | 7% |
April 2021 | 67% | 24% | 9% |
June 2021 | 62% | 29% | 9% |
August 2021 | 64% | 29% | 7% |
October 2021 | 63% | 30% | 6% |
February 2022 | 59% | 31% | 10% |
April 2022 | 60% | 34% | 6% |
June 2022 | 63% | 29% | 8% |
August 2022 | 62% | 31% | 7% |
October 2022 | 64% | 29% | 7% |
February 2023 | 60% | 29% | 11% |
April 2023 | 63% | 28% | 10% |
June 2023 | 63% | 30% | 8% |
August 2023 | 69% | 22% | 9% |
October 2023 | 63% | 29% | 8% |
February 2024 | 64% | 26% | 10% |
April 2024 | 57% | 31% | 12% |
June 2024 | 62% | 29% | 9% |
Poll | Liberal | Moderate | Conservative |
---|---|---|---|
July 2008 | 2% | 25% | 73% |
October 2008 | 2% | 20% | 78% |
March 2009 | 13% | 16% | 71% |
June 2009 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
October 2009 | 1% | 15% | 84% |
February 2010 | 2% | 9% | 89% |
May 2010 | 1% | 10% | 89% |
September 2010 | 0% | 9% | 91% |
October 2010 | 2% | 8% | 90% |
February 2011 | 3% | 14% | 84% |
May 2011 | 2% | 11% | 87% |
October 2011 | 2% | 11% | 87% |
February 2012 | 1% | 12% | 86% |
May 2012 | 1% | 22% | 77% |
October 2012 | 1% | 23% | 76% |
February 2013 | 2% | 12% | 87% |
June 2013 | 1% | 14% | 85% |
October 2013 | 3% | 20% | 77% |
February 2014 | 1% | 19% | 79% |
June 2014 | 2% | 12% | 86% |
October 2014 | 2% | 13% | 85% |
February 2015 | 1% | 16% | 83% |
June 2015 | 4% | 16% | 81% |
October 2015 | 2% | 14% | 85% |
February 2016 | 2% | 17% | 82% |
June 2016 | 1% | 15% | 83% |
October 2016 | 1% | 18% | 81% |
February 2017 | 3% | 23% | 74% |
June 2017 | 2% | 11% | 87% |
October 2017 | 2% | 14% | 83% |
February 2018 | 4% | 10% | 86% |
June 2018 | 3% | 13% | 84% |
October 2018 | 3% | 11% | 85% |
February 2019 | 4% | 11% | 85% |
June 2019 | 5% | 13% | 83% |
October 2019 | 5% | 14% | 81% |
February 2020 | 2% | 15% | 83% |
April 2020 | 4% | 13% | 83% |
June 2020 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
October 2020 | 5% | 12% | 84% |
February 2021 | 4% | 15% | 81% |
March 2021 | 3% | 14% | 83% |
April 2021 | 3% | 10% | 87% |
June 2021 | 2% | 15% | 84% |
August 2021 | 4% | 13% | 84% |
October 2021 | 2% | 10% | 88% |
February 2022 | 3% | 12% | 85% |
April 2022 | 4% | 11% | 84% |
June 2022 | 4% | 12% | 84% |
August 2022 | 5% | 13% | 83% |
October 2022 | 3% | 13% | 84% |
February 2023 | 3% | 18% | 78% |
April 2023 | 4% | 16% | 80% |
June 2023 | 4% | 13% | 83% |
August 2023 | 3% | 14% | 83% |
October 2023 | 6% | 19% | 75% |
February 2024 | 5% | 14% | 81% |
April 2024 | 6% | 14% | 80% |
June 2024 | 4% | 16% | 80% |