Rounding up Lt. Governor Patrick's UT/TT Poll Numbers as a Long Shot Primary Challenger Emerges

As anticipated in political circles, Dallas businessman Scott Milder announced Thursday morning that he would contest Lt. Governor Dan Patrick's re-election effort in the 2018 GOP primary. For details, see Jonathan Tilove's story in the Austin American Statesman, as well as Lauren McGaughy's saltily headlined piece in the Dallas Morning News. (The AP picked it up, too, so it even made it to Newsweek.  That's a magazine. Or was.)

It doesn't violate any norms of fairness to note the obvious: this is very much a long shot challenge to Patrick given his strong standing among the conservative voters who make up the bulk of the GOP primary electorate in Texas, as well as the well-stocked war chest that comes with being the incumbent Lt. Governor. Patrick's job approval numbers among key groups in the October University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll underline the strength of his position with the primary electorate.

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Approve strongly3%17%30%
Approve somewhat7%14%32%
Neither approve nor disapprove17%26%19%
Disapprove somewhat9%8%6%
Disapprove strongly49%20%3%
Don't know15%14%11%

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Approve strongly2%6%31%
Approve somewhat3%20%30%
Neither approve nor disapprove15%26%18%
Disapprove somewhat8%11%5%
Disapprove strongly60%20%4%
Don't know13%17%12%

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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Approve strongly2%26%35%
Approve somewhat8%32%35%
Neither approve nor disapprove18%22%13%
Disapprove somewhat9%5%5%
Disapprove strongly52%4%4%
Don't know10%10%7%

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PollApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't Know
November 201550%7%44%
February 201647%10%43%
June 201654%9%37%
October 201656%10%34%
February 201759%6%36%
June 201764%11%25%
October 201762%9%30%
February 201867%7%26%
June 201864%7%26%
October 201877%6%17%
February 201975%6%19%
June 201968%6%25%

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PollApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't Know
November 201564%8%29%
February 201662%8%29%
June 201668%9%24%
October 201670%8%21%
February 201775%5%20%
June 201779%9%12%
October 201770%9%20%
February 201874%10%16%
June 201871%11%18%
October 201882%7%11%