As anticipated in political circles, Dallas businessman Scott Milder announced Thursday morning that he would contest Lt. Governor Dan Patrick's re-election effort in the 2018 GOP primary. For details, see Jonathan Tilove's story in the Austin American Statesman, as well as Lauren McGaughy's saltily headlined piece in the Dallas Morning News. (The AP picked it up, too, so it even made it to Newsweek. That's a magazine. Or was.)
It doesn't violate any norms of fairness to note the obvious: this is very much a long shot challenge to Patrick given his strong standing among the conservative voters who make up the bulk of the GOP primary electorate in Texas, as well as the well-stocked war chest that comes with being the incumbent Lt. Governor. Patrick's job approval numbers among key groups in the October University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll underline the strength of his position with the primary electorate.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 3% | 17% | 30% |
| Approve somewhat | 7% | 14% | 32% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 17% | 26% | 19% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 9% | 8% | 6% |
| Disapprove strongly | 49% | 20% | 3% |
| Don't know | 15% | 14% | 11% |
| category | Liberals | Moderates | Conservatives |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 2% | 6% | 31% |
| Approve somewhat | 3% | 20% | 30% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 15% | 26% | 18% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 8% | 11% | 5% |
| Disapprove strongly | 60% | 20% | 4% |
| Don't know | 13% | 17% | 12% |
| category | Democrat | Republican | Tea Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 2% | 26% | 35% |
| Approve somewhat | 8% | 32% | 35% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 18% | 22% | 13% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 9% | 5% | 5% |
| Disapprove strongly | 52% | 4% | 4% |
| Don't know | 10% | 10% | 7% |
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't Know |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 50% | 7% | 44% |
| February 2016 | 47% | 10% | 43% |
| June 2016 | 54% | 9% | 37% |
| October 2016 | 56% | 10% | 34% |
| February 2017 | 59% | 6% | 36% |
| June 2017 | 64% | 11% | 25% |
| October 2017 | 62% | 9% | 30% |
| February 2018 | 67% | 7% | 26% |
| June 2018 | 64% | 7% | 26% |
| October 2018 | 77% | 6% | 17% |
| February 2019 | 75% | 6% | 19% |
| June 2019 | 68% | 6% | 25% |
| October 2019 | 67% | 9% | 23% |
| February 2020 | 72% | 9% | 20% |
| April 2020 | 70% | 10% | 20% |
| June 2020 | 72% | 8% | 20% |
| October 2020 | 66% | 10% | 24% |
| February 2021 | 65% | 11% | 24% |
| March 2021 | 64% | 11% | 26% |
| April 2021 | 63% | 10% | 27% |
| June 2021 | 65% | 7% | 28% |
| August 2021 | 61% | 11% | 28% |
| October 2021 | 67% | 9% | 25% |
| February 2022 | 57% | 10% | 33% |
| April 2022 | 66% | 8% | 27% |
| June 2022 | 62% | 12% | 25% |
| August 2022 | 69% | 10% | 22% |
| October 2022 | 70% | 6% | 25% |
| December 2022 | 77% | 6% | 16% |
| February 2023 | 70% | 8% | 22% |
| April 2023 | 72% | 9% | 20% |
| June 2023 | 66% | 7% | 27% |
| August 2023 | 62% | 11% | 27% |
| October 2023 | 63% | 11% | 25% |
| December 2023 | 63% | 10% | 27% |
| February 2024 | 66% | 10% | 24% |
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't Know |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 64% | 8% | 29% |
| February 2016 | 62% | 8% | 29% |
| June 2016 | 68% | 9% | 24% |
| October 2016 | 70% | 8% | 21% |
| February 2017 | 75% | 5% | 20% |
| June 2017 | 79% | 9% | 12% |
| October 2017 | 70% | 9% | 20% |
| February 2018 | 74% | 10% | 16% |
| June 2018 | 71% | 11% | 18% |
| October 2018 | 82% | 7% | 11% |