Second Reading Podcast: A conversation about trends in Latino voting and media narratives around them

In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank take a close look Latino voting patterns in Texas  – and what the most common media narratives miss about the subject. The discussion includes extensive discussion of different measures of Latino turnout in Texas across several elections, and using different geographic breakdowns. Below the link to the podcast, listeners will find several tables with data referred to in the discussion.

Listen via Spotify using the player below, or on the web via on LAITS Podcasting page produced by the College of LIberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin.

 

Election Results in Rio Grande Vally Counties (2012-2020)
Election Votes Percent of Total Votes Dem Votes Rep Votes Dem Advantage (Votes) Dem Vote Share Rep Vote Share Dem Advantage (Percent)
2012 232,857 2.91% 161,804 68,927 92,877 69.49% 29.60% 39.89
2014 126,996 2.69% 77,444 46,423 31,021 60.98% 36.55% 24.43
2016 283,070 3.15% 190,839 81,846 108,993 67.42% 28.91% 38.51
2018* 244,740 2.92% 164,205 79,042 85,163 67.09% 32.30% 34.79
2020 356,121 3.21% 203,319 149,420 53,899 57.09% 41.96% 15.14

*The 2018 result looks at the competitive contest between Sen. Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke, and not the less competitive gubernatorial election between Gov. Greg Abbott and Lupe Valdez.

Source: Texas Legislative Council Comprehensive Election Datasets

 

Top of the Ticket Exit Polling Results in Texas Elections
Election Hispanic Share of the Electorate Democratic Vote Share Republican Vote Share Democratic Advantage
2004 20% 50% 49% 1
2006 15% 41% 31% 10
2008 20% 63% 35% 28
2010 17% 61% 38% 23
2012 N/A N/A N/A N/A
2014 17% 55% 44% 10
2016 24% 61% 26% 35
2018 26% 64% 35% 29
2020 23% 58% 40% 18
Overall AVG 20% 57% 37% 20
Presidential AVG 22% 58% 38% 20
Midterm AVG 19% 55% 37% 18
2016-2020 AVG 24% 61% 34% 27

Source: CNN, NBC, and CBS reporting of exit polling results (links available upon request)

 

Estimated Vote Preferences in October UT Election Year Polls
Oct. Polling Democratic
Vote Share
Among
Latinos
Republican
Vote Share
Among
​Latinos
LATINO: D Adv. Overall
Trial Ballot (D-R)
D-Advantage Final Results (D-R) D-Advantage D-Adv. Error
2012 47% 47% 0 39-54 -15 41-57 -16 1
2014 48% 46% 2 38-54 -16 39-59 -20 4
2016 56% 33% 23 42-45 -3 43-52 -9 6
2018 60% 33% 27 45-51 -6 48-51 -3 3
2020 54% 37% 17 45-50 -5 46-52 -6 1

Source: UT Polling Data archive, https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/polling-data-archive, October polling.

 

Latino Vote Shares in Counties with Greater than 50% Latino Adult Population (2012-2020)
Election

# of Counties
(2019)

% of HISP
Adults 
(2019)
Dem Votes Share of
Total D Votes
Rep Votes Share of
Total R Votes
Dem
Vote ADV
Dem Vote Share

Dem Vote Share
-
Statewide Dem
Vote Share

Rep Vote Share Rep Vote Share
-
Statewide
Rep Vote Share
Dem
ADV (%)
% of All
Votes Cast
2012 59 39.02% 722,497 21.84% 569,837 12.47% 152,660 55.24% 13.84% 43.56% -13.62% 11.68% 16.37%
2014 360,837 19.66% 351,951 12.59% 8,886 49.56% 10.66% 48.34% -10.93% 1.22% 15.43%
2016 851,154 21.95% 592,650 12.65% 258,504 56.10% 12.93% 39.06% -13.09% 17.04% 16.89%
2018 811,539 20.07% 540,228 12.68% 271,311 59.58% 11.26% 39.66% -11.24% 19.92% 16.28%
2020 1,037,192 19.73% 832,174 14.13% 205,018 54.72% 8.26% 43.90% -8.14% 10.82% 16.75%

Source for electoral data: Texas Legislative Council Comprehensive Election Datasets
Source for demographic data: Texas Demographic Center, 2019 population estimates Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for State and Counties

 

Partisan Vote Share in Big 6 and Suburban Counties in Texas, 2012-2020
Big-6 Votes Cast % of Total R Votes D Votes R Vote Adv. R % D % R % Adv D % Adv
2012 3,581,675 44.79% 1,669,725 1,856,282 -186,557 46.62% 51.83% -5.21% 5.21%
2016 4,014,006 44.69% 1,577,875 2,233,039 -655,164 39.31% 55.63% -16.32% 16.32%
2018 3,799,698 45.40% 1,436,642 2,332,467 -895,825 37.81% 61.36% -23.55% 23.55%
2020 4,977,477 44.87% 1,950,698 2,948,180 -997,482 39.19% 59.23% -20.04% 20.04%
Average 4,093,214 44.94% 1,658,735 2,342,492 -683,757 40.73% 57.01% -16.28% 16.28%
Presidntial Avg
4,119,617 45.02% 1,685,688 2,378,976 -693,288 41.21% 57.47% -16.27% 16.27%
                   
                   
Suburbs Votes Cast % of Total R Votes D Votes R Vote Adv. R % D % R % Adv D % Adv
2012 1,930,860 24.14% 1,283,712 618,177 665,535 66.48% 32.02% 34.46% -34.46%
2016 2,290,739 25.50% 1,385,939 787,242 598,697 60.50% 34.37% 26.13% -26.13%
2018 2,209,303 26.40% 1,287,749 903,068 384,681 58.29% 40.88% 17.41% -17.41%
2020 3,052,067 27.51% 1,778,044 1,225,063 552,981 58.26% 40.14% 18.12% -18.12%
Average 2,370,742 25.89% 1,433,861 883,388 550,474 60.88% 36.85% 24.03% -24.03%
Presidntial Avg
2,397,410 26.02% 1,449,835 915,436 534,399 61.01% 37.68% 23.33% -23.33%

Source for electoral data: Texas Legislative Council Comprehensive Election Datasets. The Big-6 counties include El Paso, Bexar, Travis, Harris, Tarrant, and Dallas counties. Suburban counties included Wise, Denton, Collin, Rockwall, Hunt, Kaufman, Ellis, Johnson, Parker, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, Kendall, Comal, Guadalupe, Wilson, Atascosa, Medina, Bandera, Galveston, Chambers, Liberty, San Jacinto, Montgomery, Waller, Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Austin counties.

 

About the Second Reading podcast. The podcast has been produced intermittently by Jim Henson for the Texas Politics Project, with production support from the Liberal Arts Development Studio at UT Austin, since 2016. You can find past episodes and subscribe to the Second Reading podcast in Apple PodcastsSpotify,  and Stitcher.

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