In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank take a close look Latino voting patterns in Texas – and what the most common media narratives miss about the subject. The discussion includes extensive discussion of different measures of Latino turnout in Texas across several elections, and using different geographic breakdowns. Below the link to the podcast, listeners will find several tables with data referred to in the discussion.
Election Results in Rio Grande Vally Counties (2012-2020)
Election
Votes
Percent of Total Votes
Dem Votes
Rep Votes
Dem Advantage (Votes)
Dem Vote Share
Rep Vote Share
Dem Advantage (Percent)
2012
232,857
2.91%
161,804
68,927
92,877
69.49%
29.60%
39.89
2014
126,996
2.69%
77,444
46,423
31,021
60.98%
36.55%
24.43
2016
283,070
3.15%
190,839
81,846
108,993
67.42%
28.91%
38.51
2018*
244,740
2.92%
164,205
79,042
85,163
67.09%
32.30%
34.79
2020
356,121
3.21%
203,319
149,420
53,899
57.09%
41.96%
15.14
*The 2018 result looks at the competitive contest between Sen. Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke, and not the less competitive gubernatorial election between Gov. Greg Abbott and Lupe Valdez.
Source: Texas Legislative Council Comprehensive Election Datasets
Top of the Ticket Exit Polling Results in Texas Elections
Election
Hispanic Share of the Electorate
Democratic Vote Share
Republican Vote Share
Democratic Advantage
2004
20%
50%
49%
1
2006
15%
41%
31%
10
2008
20%
63%
35%
28
2010
17%
61%
38%
23
2012
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2014
17%
55%
44%
10
2016
24%
61%
26%
35
2018
26%
64%
35%
29
2020
23%
58%
40%
18
Overall AVG
20%
57%
37%
20
Presidential AVG
22%
58%
38%
20
Midterm AVG
19%
55%
37%
18
2016-2020 AVG
24%
61%
34%
27
Source: CNN, NBC, and CBS reporting of exit polling results (links available upon request)
Estimated Vote Preferences in October UT Election Year Polls
Latino Vote Shares in Counties with Greater than 50% Latino Adult Population (2012-2020)
Election
# of Counties (2019)
% of HISP
Adults
(2019)
Dem Votes
Share of
Total D Votes
Rep Votes
Share of
Total R Votes
Dem
Vote ADV
Dem Vote Share
Dem Vote Share
- Statewide Dem
Vote Share
Rep Vote Share
Rep Vote Share
-
Statewide
Rep Vote Share
Dem
ADV (%)
% of All
Votes Cast
2012
59
39.02%
722,497
21.84%
569,837
12.47%
152,660
55.24%
13.84%
43.56%
-13.62%
11.68%
16.37%
2014
360,837
19.66%
351,951
12.59%
8,886
49.56%
10.66%
48.34%
-10.93%
1.22%
15.43%
2016
851,154
21.95%
592,650
12.65%
258,504
56.10%
12.93%
39.06%
-13.09%
17.04%
16.89%
2018
811,539
20.07%
540,228
12.68%
271,311
59.58%
11.26%
39.66%
-11.24%
19.92%
16.28%
2020
1,037,192
19.73%
832,174
14.13%
205,018
54.72%
8.26%
43.90%
-8.14%
10.82%
16.75%
Source for electoral data: Texas Legislative Council Comprehensive Election Datasets
Source for demographic data: Texas Demographic Center, 2019 population estimates Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for State and Counties
Partisan Vote Share in Big 6 and Suburban Counties in Texas, 2012-2020
Big-6
Votes Cast
% of Total
R Votes
D Votes
R Vote Adv.
R %
D %
R % Adv
D % Adv
2012
3,581,675
44.79%
1,669,725
1,856,282
-186,557
46.62%
51.83%
-5.21%
5.21%
2016
4,014,006
44.69%
1,577,875
2,233,039
-655,164
39.31%
55.63%
-16.32%
16.32%
2018
3,799,698
45.40%
1,436,642
2,332,467
-895,825
37.81%
61.36%
-23.55%
23.55%
2020
4,977,477
44.87%
1,950,698
2,948,180
-997,482
39.19%
59.23%
-20.04%
20.04%
Average
4,093,214
44.94%
1,658,735
2,342,492
-683,757
40.73%
57.01%
-16.28%
16.28%
Presidntial Avg
4,119,617
45.02%
1,685,688
2,378,976
-693,288
41.21%
57.47%
-16.27%
16.27%
Suburbs
Votes Cast
% of Total
R Votes
D Votes
R Vote Adv.
R %
D %
R % Adv
D % Adv
2012
1,930,860
24.14%
1,283,712
618,177
665,535
66.48%
32.02%
34.46%
-34.46%
2016
2,290,739
25.50%
1,385,939
787,242
598,697
60.50%
34.37%
26.13%
-26.13%
2018
2,209,303
26.40%
1,287,749
903,068
384,681
58.29%
40.88%
17.41%
-17.41%
2020
3,052,067
27.51%
1,778,044
1,225,063
552,981
58.26%
40.14%
18.12%
-18.12%
Average
2,370,742
25.89%
1,433,861
883,388
550,474
60.88%
36.85%
24.03%
-24.03%
Presidntial Avg
2,397,410
26.02%
1,449,835
915,436
534,399
61.01%
37.68%
23.33%
-23.33%
Source for electoral data: Texas Legislative Council Comprehensive Election Datasets. The Big-6 counties include El Paso, Bexar, Travis, Harris, Tarrant, and Dallas counties. Suburban counties included Wise, Denton, Collin, Rockwall, Hunt, Kaufman, Ellis, Johnson, Parker, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, Kendall, Comal, Guadalupe, Wilson, Atascosa, Medina, Bandera, Galveston, Chambers, Liberty, San Jacinto, Montgomery, Waller, Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Austin counties.
About the Second Reading podcast. The podcast has been produced intermittently by Jim Henson for the Texas Politics Project, with production support from the Liberal Arts Development Studio at UT Austin, since 2016. You can find past episodes and subscribe to the Second Reading podcast in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.
Stay up to date on the latest polling results, analysis, events, and more from the Texas Politics Project.
Republishing Guidelines
We encourage you to republish our content, but ask that you follow these guidelines.
1. Publish the author or authors' name(s) and the title as written on the original column, and give credit to the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (and, if possible, a link back to texaspolitics.utexas.edu, or to the specific subpage where the content resides).
2. Don't change the column in any way.
3. You can republish any multimedia (including, photos, videos, audio, or graphics) as long as you give proper attribution (either to the Texas Politics Project, if not already included in the media, and to the media's author).
4. Don't resell the column
5. Feel free to publish it on a page surrounded by ads you've already sold, but don't sell ads against the column.
6. If we send you a request to change or remove our content from your site, you must agree to do so immediately.
