February 14, 2023
In the latest Second Reading podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank look at Gov. Abbott's polling numbers and political positioning going into this weeks State of the State address.
Gov. Abbott will deliver the address from San Marcos, the second address in a row in which Gov. Abbott has opted to break with the tradition of delivering the speech at the Capitol. (The 2021 address, during the COVID 19 pandemic, was deilvered from a factory in Lockhart). Nexstar, who is again producing the statewide broadcast of the State of the State address, has provided a list of streaming and broadcast sites where the address may be seen live.
The Legislative Reference Library search engine helpfully provides links to past addresses – a search for "state of the state" will bring up links to past speeches, from J. Pinckney Henderson's first address in 1846 to Gov. Abbott's 2021 address.
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll data on Gov. Abbott
Different cuts of job approval ratings from December 2022
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| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 24% |
| Approve somewhat | 25% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 9% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 7% |
| Disapprove strongly | 34% |
| Don't know | 1% |
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| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 4% | 9% | 48% |
| Approve somewhat | 9% | 36% | 39% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 9% | 13% | 7% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 7% | 11% | 4% |
| Disapprove strongly | 71% | 28% | 2% |
| Don't know | 0% | 3% | 1% |
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| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 18% | 46% | 60% |
| Approve somewhat | 52% | 40% | 30% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 16% | 4% | 4% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 12% | 4% | 2% |
| Disapprove strongly | 2% | 6% | 5% |
| Don't know | 0% | 0% | 0% |
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| Category | White | Black | Hispanic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 30% | 7% | 18% |
| Approve somewhat | 29% | 17% | 22% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 6% | 15% | 11% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 6% | 10% | 6% |
| Disapprove strongly | 28% | 49% | 41% |
| Don't know | 1% | 1% | 1% |
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| Category | Urban | Suburban | Rural |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 16% | 23% | 34% |
| Approve somewhat | 22% | 26% | 28% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 12% | 9% | 6% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 7% | 7% | 6% |
| Disapprove strongly | 41% | 34% | 26% |
| Don't know | 2% | 1% | 0% |
Gov. Abbott job approval trend
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| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't Know |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 42% | 29% | 28% |
| February 2016 | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| June 2016 | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| October 2016 | 42% | 33% | 25% |
| February 2017 | 45% | 33% | 23% |
| June 2017 | 45% | 38% | 16% |
| October 2017 | 48% | 33% | 19% |
| February 2018 | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| June 2018 | 47% | 36% | 18% |
| October 2018 | 52% | 32% | 17% |
| February 2019 | 51% | 32% | 17% |
| June 2019 | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| October 2019 | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| February 2020 | 48% | 34% | 18% |
| April 2020 | 56% | 32% | 13% |
| June 2020 | 49% | 39% | 13% |
| October 2020 | 47% | 40% | 14% |
| February 2021 | 46% | 39% | 15% |
| March 2021 | 45% | 43% | 11% |
| April 2021 | 43% | 45% | 13% |
| June 2021 | 44% | 44% | 11% |
| August 2021 | 41% | 50% | 9% |
| October 2021 | 43% | 48% | 10% |
| February 2022 | 44% | 42% | 15% |
| April 2022 | 47% | 41% | 13% |
| June 2022 | 43% | 46% | 12% |
| August 2022 | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| October 2022 | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| December 2022 | 49% | 41% | 8% |
| February 2023 | 46% | 43% | 12% |
| April 2023 | 46% | 41% | 12% |
| June 2023 | 47% | 42% | 12% |
| August 2023 | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| October 2023 | 49% | 40% | 10% |
| December 2023 | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| February 2024 | 53% | 37% | 10% |
| April 2024 | 55% | 37% | 10% |
| June 2024 | 50% | 39% | 11% |
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| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't Know |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 70% | 8% | 23% |
| February 2016 | 69% | 8% | 23% |
| June 2016 | 73% | 7% | 21% |
| October 2016 | 75% | 5% | 21% |
| February 2017 | 80% | 5% | 15% |
| June 2017 | 83% | 8% | 10% |
| October 2017 | 79% | 5% | 14% |
| February 2018 | 81% | 5% | 14% |
| June 2018 | 80% | 7% | 14% |
| October 2018 | 89% | 4% | 8% |
| February 2019 | 83% | 6% | 10% |
| June 2019 | 84% | 4% | 12% |
| October 2019 | 79% | 6% | 15% |
| February 2020 | 84% | 8% | 12% |
| April 2020 | 88% | 6% | 7% |
| June 2020 | 83% | 7% | 9% |
| October 2020 | 81% | 13% | 7% |
| February 2021 | 79% | 10% | 11% |
| March 2021 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| April 2021 | 77% | 13% | 10% |
| June 2021 | 77% | 12% | 11% |
| August 2021 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| October 2021 | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| February 2022 | 74% | 14% | 12% |
| April 2022 | 80% | 10% | 11% |
| June 2022 | 78% | 11% | 12% |
| August 2022 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| October 2022 | 86% | 8% | 6% |
| December 2022 | 87% | 6% | 8% |
| February 2023 | 83% | 7% | 10% |
| April 2023 | 79% | 9% | 12% |
| June 2023 | 81% | 10% | 8% |
| August 2023 | 81% | 11% | 8% |
| October 2023 | 79% | 10% | 11% |
| December 2023 | 78% | 10% | 12% |
| February 2024 | 83% | 8% | 10% |
| April 2024 | 85% | 8% | 8% |
| June 2024 | 82% | 8% | 10% |
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| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't Know |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 13% | 56% | 23% |
| February 2016 | 18% | 50% | 33% |
| June 2016 | 12% | 60% | 27% |
| October 2016 | 12% | 62% | 26% |
| February 2017 | 13% | 61% | 27% |
| June 2017 | 9% | 70% | 20% |
| October 2017 | 14% | 64% | 21% |
| February 2018 | 12% | 59% | 29% |
| June 2018 | 14% | 67% | 18% |
| October 2018 | 12% | 67% | 21% |
| February 2019 | 16% | 63% | 22% |
| June 2019 | 18% | 62% | 21% |
| October 2019 | 24% | 51% | 24% |
| February 2020 | 13% | 64% | 24% |
| April 2020 | 24% | 59% | 16% |
| June 2020 | 13% | 74% | 13% |
| October 2020 | 13% | 70% | 17% |
| February 2021 | 13% | 73% | 14% |
| March 2021 | 11% | 81% | 8% |
| April 2021 | 7% | 83% | 9% |
| June 2021 | 8% | 82% | 9% |
| August 2021 | 6% | 90% | 4% |
| October 2021 | 5% | 85% | 9% |
| February 2022 | 14% | 75% | 12% |
| April 2022 | 12% | 79% | 9% |
| June 2022 | 6% | 86% | 7% |
| August 2022 | 11% | 84% | 6% |
| October 2022 | 9% | 81% | 9% |
| December 2022 | 13% | 78% | 9% |
| February 2023 | 14% | 78% | 8% |
| April 2023 | 19% | 74% | 8% |
| June 2023 | 14% | 76% | 10% |
| August 2023 | 13% | 78% | 9% |
| October 2023 | 15% | 77% | 8% |
| December 2023 | 19% | 73% | 7% |
| February 2024 | 27% | 67% | 6% |
| April 2024 | 27% | 65% | 8% |
| June 2024 | 20% | 71% | 9% |
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| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't Know |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 39% | 28% | 44% |
| February 2016 | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| June 2016 | 34% | 39% | 27% |
| October 2016 | 31% | 39% | 29% |
| February 2017 | 23% | 48% | 29% |
| June 2017 | 33% | 44% | 24% |
| October 2017 | 45% | 30% | 26% |
| February 2018 | 38% | 20% | 41% |
| June 2018 | 39% | 34% | 26% |
| October 2018 | 41% | 32% | 27% |
| February 2019 | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| June 2019 | 42% | 29% | 30% |
| October 2019 | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| February 2020 | 38% | 30% | 31% |
| April 2020 | 34% | 41% | 25% |
| June 2020 | 41% | 36% | 23% |
| October 2020 | 33% | 39% | 29% |
| February 2021 | 33% | 33% | 34% |
| March 2021 | 34% | 36% | 30% |
| April 2021 | 34% | 37% | 28% |
| June 2021 | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| August 2021 | 30% | 52% | 18% |
| October 2021 | 27% | 57% | 16% |
| February 2022 | 42% | 43% | 16% |
| April 2022 | 33% | 41% | 26% |
| June 2022 | 27% | 55% | 19% |
| August 2022 | 37% | 43% | 19% |
| October 2022 | 40% | 48% | 12% |
| December 2022 | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| February 2023 | 38% | 46% | 15% |
| April 2023 | 25% | 54% | 21% |
| June 2023 | 39% | 40% | 21% |
| August 2023 | 31% | 53% | 15% |
| October 2023 | 34% | 53% | 13% |
| December 2023 | 34% | 51% | 15% |
| February 2024 | 36% | 50% | 14% |
| April 2024 | 35% | 46% | 19% |
| June 2024 | 29% | 48% | 23% |
Gov. Abbott issue approvals prior to 2022 election (October 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll)
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| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Immigration & border security | 46% |
| The coronavirus | 46% |
| The economy | 45% |
| Crime & public safety | 44% |
| Public education | 40% |
| Gun violence | 40% |
| Abortion access | 37% |
| Health care | 37% |
| Inflation & prices | 36% |
| The electric grid | 34% |
| Climate change | 30% |
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| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immigration & border security | 10% | 42% | 83% |
| The coronavirus | 14% | 30% | 77% |
| The economy | 12% | 34% | 78% |
| Crime & public safety | 10% | 31% | 79% |
| Public education | 11% | 31% | 69% |
| Gun violence | 10% | 25% | 69% |
| Abortion access | 8% | 27% | 65% |
| Health care | 10% | 19% | 62% |
| Inflation & prices | 8% | 19% | 64% |
| The electric grid | 10% | 18% | 61% |
| Climate change | 10% | 15% | 51% |
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| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immigration & border security | 69% | 86% | 85% |
| The coronavirus | 68% | 81% | 79% |
| The economy | 69% | 83% | 86% |
| Crime & public safety | 61% | 85% | 85% |
| Public education | 53% | 69% | 79% |
| Gun violence | 50% | 71% | 77% |
| Abortion access | 41% | 71% | 81% |
| Health care | 49% | 62% | 72% |
| Inflation & prices | 50% | 65% | 72% |
| The electric grid | 44% | 64% | 68% |
| Climate change | 37% | 52% | 61% |
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| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immigration & border security | 69% | 86% | 85% |
| The coronavirus | 68% | 81% | 79% |
| The economy | 69% | 83% | 86% |
| Crime & public safety | 61% | 85% | 85% |
| Public education | 53% | 69% | 79% |
| Gun violence | 50% | 71% | 77% |
| Abortion access | 41% | 71% | 81% |
| Health care | 49% | 62% | 72% |
| Inflation & prices | 50% | 65% | 72% |
| The electric grid | 44% | 64% | 68% |
| Climate change | 37% | 52% | 61% |
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| Category | White | Black | Hispanic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immigration & border security | 58% | 19% | 37% |
| The coronavirus | 55% | 26% | 36% |
| The economy | 56% | 27% | 34% |
| Crime & public safety | 54% | 22% | 33% |
| Public education | 49% | 26% | 28% |
| Gun violence | 49% | 21% | 28% |
| Abortion access | 43% | 24% | 30% |
| Health care | 44% | 25% | 28% |
| Inflation & prices | 43% | 20% | 27% |
| The electric grid | 40% | 22% | 27% |
| Climate change | 36% | 20% | 23% |
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| Category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Immigration & border security | 56% | 38% |
| The coronavirus | 52% | 39% |
| The economy | 56% | 36% |
| Crime & public safety | 53% | 36% |
| Public education | 49% | 31% |
| Gun violence | 47% | 33% |
| Abortion access | 44% | 30% |
| Health care | 43% | 31% |
| Inflation & prices | 43% | 29% |
| The electric grid | 42% | 28% |
| Climate change | 38% | 24% |
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| Category | Urban | Suburban | Rural |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immigration & border security | 33% | 49% | 61% |
| The coronavirus | 36% | 48% | 58% |
| The economy | 33% | 49% | 58% |
| Crime & public safety | 31% | 48% | 54% |
| Public education | 31% | 40% | 52% |
| Gun violence | 31% | 41% | 48% |
| Abortion access | 29% | 37% | 51% |
| Health care | 30% | 36% | 48% |
| Inflation & prices | 28% | 36% | 47% |
| The electric grid | 29% | 35% | 45% |
| Climate change | 27% | 31% | 36% |
About the Second Reading podcast. The podcast has been produced intermittently by Jim Henson for the Texas Politics Project, with production support from UT's Liberal Arts Development Studio, since 2016. You can find past episodes and subscribe to the Second Reading podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.