To say that the Tea Party has exerted an influence on Texas Politics over the last half decade is a major understatement, but what often gets left unexplored is the relative size of the group of Texans who identify with the Tea Party in the face of their outsized presence in the GOP primary process.
Since February 2010, the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll has asked respondents the following question in order to identify Tea Party support:
Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking
about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate
from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from
your district?
Respondents who indicate that they would vote for a Tea Party candidate over a Republican or Democratic candidate in their Congressional district are classified as Tea Party Republicans. Overall, these Tea Party Republicans have encompassed between 16 and 24 percent of the Texas electorate, with the high (24 percent) measured in October 2011. More recently, we have estimated that just under one-fifth of the Texas electorate can be classified as Tea Party Republicans.
| category | Democrat | Republican | Tea Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2010 | 36% | 21% | 16% |
| May 2010 | 33% | 19% | 23% |
| September 2010 | 33% | 20% | 18% |
| October 2010 | 33% | 18% | 20% |
| February 2011 | 34% | 16% | 22% |
| May 2011 | 33% | 16% | 23% |
| October 2011 | 33% | 20% | 24% |
| February 2012 | 37% | 16% | 22% |
| May 2012 | 34% | 22% | 18% |
| October 2012 | 36% | 16% | 17% |
| February 2013 | 36% | 17% | 20% |
| June 2013 | 38% | 18% | 20% |
| October 2013 | 38% | 22% | 19% |
| February 2014 | 37% | 21% | 21% |
| June 2014 | 38% | 20% | 22% |
| October 2014 | 40% | 23% | 20% |
| February 2015 | 34% | 24% | 18% |
| June 2015 | 34% | 24% | 18% |
| November 2015 | 35% | 22% | 17% |
| February 2016 | 36% | 22% | 12% |
| June 2016 | 33% | 22% | 14% |
| October 2016 | 37% | 20% | 17% |
| February 2017 | 38% | 24% | 15% |
| June 2017 | 39% | 21% | 16% |
| October 2017 | 37% | 22% | 17% |
Among Republican identifiers in the state, the Tea Party's biggest surge came between February 2011 and February 2012, when the percentage of Texas Republicans who identified with the Tea Party reached its maximum of 41 percent. More recent estimates suggest that a greater share of Republicans in Texas identify with the Republican Party than identify with the Tea Party when given the choice. Thus, to the direct question, "what share of Texas' Republicans are Tea Party adherents?" the pattern of fluctuation over the last year (October 2014 to present) suggest a rough estimate of between 30 and 37 percent (with an average of 32.75 percent).
| Month and Year | Tea Party | Republican Party |
|---|---|---|
| February 2010 | 26% | 41% |
| May 2010 | 33% | 37% |
| September 2010 | 30% | 39% |
| October 2010 | 31% | 36% |
| February 2011 | 37% | 30% |
| May 2011 | 41% | 30% |
| October 2011 | 40% | 36% |
| February 2012 | 40% | 31% |
| May 2012 | 33% | 44% |
| October 2012 | 32% | 34% |
| February 2013 | 38% | 35% |
| June 2013 | 35% | 40% |
| October 2013 | 34% | 43% |
| February 2014 | 36% | 42% |
| June 2014 | 42% | 38% |
| October 2014 | 37% | 43% |
| February 2015 | 33% | 47% |
| June 2015 | 30% | 47% |
| November 2015 | 31% | 44% |
| February 2016 | 23% | 49% |
| June 2016 | 26% | 46% |
| October 2016 | 31% | 41% |
| February 2017 | 27% | 50% |
| June 2017 | 29% | 44% |
| October 2017 | 29% | 43% |