As the bill meant to repeal Obamacare faces a close floor vote in the U.S. House of Representatives, results from the February 2017 University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll illustrate the cross currents in the Republican Party that are forcing Speaker Paul Ryan and President Donald Trump to furiously whip the first major vote of the new administration.
Not surprisingly, a majority of Texans favor the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, a majority composed of the lion’s share of Republicans.
| category | column-1 |
|---|---|
| Repeal it | 52% |
| Don't Repeal it | 34% |
| Don't know | 14% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repeal it | 18% | 53% | 83% |
| Don't Repeal it | 67% | 25% | 7% |
| Don't know | 15% | 22% | 10% |
However, among Republicans who favor repeal, a substantial minority advocate outright appeal without replacing the act – a position that broadly corresponds to GOP opposition in the House among The Freedom Caucus. A sizable majority (more than 60 percent) of those favoring repeal nonetheless want a replacement – likely at least partially made up of the much-covered Trump supporters who stand to suffer as a result of provisions in the replacement. (To explore all the ACA results from the February 2017 Poll, check out our graphics here.)
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repeal the law and replace it with an alternative | 63% | 77% | 65% |
| Repeal the law and don't replace it | 35% | 20% | 30% |
| Don't know | 1% | 2% | 5% |
(Among respondents who favored repealing the affordable care act - n = 623, MOE is +/- 3.93% [adjusted for weighting is +/- 5.05%] )
| category | Leaning conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repeal the law and replace it with an alternative | 70% | 67% | 55% |
| Repeal the law and don't replace it | 27% | 26% | 40% |
| Don't know | 3% | 7% | 5% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wait until they have the details of a replacement plan figured out before they repeal the health care law | 82% | 69% | 57% |
| Repeal the health care law immediately and figure out the details of a replacement plan later | 9% | 22% | 35% |
| Don't know | 9% | 9% | 8% |
(Among all respondents: n=1200, Margin of error: +/- 2.83% [3.28% adjusted for weighting] )
These results track with earlier ones from an October 2013 poll that found Texans, including significant shares of Republicans, favorably inclined to many of the components of the Affordable Care Act, though opposed to "Obamacare" overall. The link will take you to the full battery, though see a couple of examples below. Happy CSPAN watching.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 54% | 31% | 16% |
| Somewhat support | 28% | 34% | 35% |
| Somewhat oppose | 7% | 12% | 21% |
| Strongly oppose | 5% | 15% | 21% |
| Don't know | 6% | 8% | 6% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 56% | 40% | 17% |
| Somewhat support | 26% | 22% | 22% |
| Somewhat oppose | 8% | 9% | 23% |
| Strongly oppose | 2% | 20% | 30% |
| Don't know | 9% | 8% | 8% |