Donald Trump’s whipsaw approach to international trade is keeping markets on their toes as everyone from stock traders to consumers is suddenly faced with unrelenting uncertainty about the future of the U.S. economy.

Recent University of Texas/Texas Politics Project polling shows that while Texas voters expect Trump’s tariffs to increase already high prices, some voters, Republicans in particular, seem to think that the pain will be worth it in the long run. While this pattern in public opinion would seem to indicate that partisans are accepting the Trump administration’s messaging to the effect that tariffs will cause short term pain but generate positive economic returns in the long run, those same voters’ sustained concerns about high consumer prices may test the durability of their faith in the president’s take on economic theory.

However much (and how) Texas voters’ attitudes about tariffs are likely to be shaped by their direct experience of the effects, and by partisan attempts to shape those views, the widespread concern they express about prices is likely to continue to dominate their economic views. In February 2025 UT/TxPP polling, 73% of Texas voters said that they were “very concerned” about the price of food and consumer goods, more than said the same about any other economic issue, and the highest share expressing this level of concern over 5 surveys beginning in April 2024. The February results included 75% of Democrats, but also 72% of Republicans, 74% of liberals and 73% of conservatives, as well as 70%, 78%, and 74% of white, black, and Hispanic voters, respectively.

When our December poll asked Texas voters a set of questions based on campaign promises, 84% said “lowering the prices of goods and services” should either be a “very high priority” (54%) or a “high priority” (30%) for the incoming Trump administration — more than said the same about any other priority. While Republicans assigned slightly more priority to reducing the flow of fentanyl and strengthening the national defense, lowering prices remained a top priority for Republican voters as well — with 25% saying this should be the top priority, second only to deporting immigrants currently in the U.S. illegally (32%).

Voters placed significantly less importance on tariffs, with only 12% of Texans and 15% of Republicans saying this should be a “very high priority”, and fewer than 2% of voters or Republicans saying that this should be the administration’s top priority. Given concerns about prices, this should come as no surprise.

Overall, 68% of Texas voters said that they expected tariffs to result in higher prices including the plurality, 48%, of Republicans. While these results paint a clear and consistent portrait, asking voters about the long-term impact of Trump’s tariffs uncovers a little more room for the president to maneuver — even if it’s impossible to know how much. This is likely a big reason why he pivoted to the “short term pain, long term gain” messaging soon after his return to the White House.

Asked about the long-term impacts of tariffs on the U.S. economy, two-thirds of Republican voters, 67%, said that they expected these tariffs to help the U.S. economy. Overall, driven by the 82% of Democrats who expect long-term pain, Texas voters on the whole look somewhat ambivalently at the long-term prospects for tariffs, with 39% expecting them to help the U.S. economy and 44% expecting the opposite.

This points to the reality that a key element of Trump’s message may be taking hold in some quarters – in particular, that tariffs will also help transform the U.S. economy via re-industrialization, in addition to delivering the pugilistic rush of “getting even” with our trade partners.

As the President continues to wield tariff increases as a club against the U.S.’s largest trading partners, including traditional allies as well as competitors and outright opponents, while claiming that everything will be fine after everyone takes their medicine, voters' attitudes are likely to be further influenced by their experience of the impact of the tariffs, as well as the framing coming from Trump and other partisans on various sides of the debate. 

This makes the short-term politics for Trump and his allies fraught. Even if Trump’s economic theories turn out to be more right than they seem to most, how much pain will his approach cause, and when, if ever, will voters feel tangible results from these efforts? It’s unlikely to be before the midterms in 2026, nor even before the next presidential election in 2028 — whomever is on the ballot.

Texas stands in an interesting position in all this. The political fallout of a tariff-triggered bout of renewed inflation, stagflation, or an outright recession would fall on a state leadership that has been hard pressed to show any distance from the current president. Yet the Texas GOP governs a state likely to suffer significant collateral damage from Trump’s twin wars on foreign trade partners and the federal government. Trade plays a significant role in the state’s economy given a 1,200 mile international border, and Texas relies heavily on federal dollars for incumbent programs serving its large, high-need population. The direct impact of the tariff policies on voters already alarmed by high prices, especially those who are currently convinced that the short-term pain is justified, seems likely to erode optimism about the long term should even the mildest predictions about post-tariff inflation prove accurate. And Republican state leaders, all on the ballot in 2026, will be tasked with making the case that the pain is worth it – unless they choose the currently unthinkable, and defy their president.