Republican Congressman Bill Flores' (CD-17) announcement that he won't seek re-election in 2020 brings the number of GOP retirements to five*, further fueling speculation about the extent and implications of increasing partisan competition in Texas.

That's a big topic with a lot of variables beyond the basic recognition that the state *is* more competitive this cycle, a general awakening that goes back at least as far as the planning stages of the 2019 legislative session, in which Texas' GOP leaders tried to incorporate their understanding of the 2018 election into their attempts to manage the legislative agenda.

For now, the rash of GOP congressional retirements would seem to incorporate several factors, which have combined in different ways in each case. The overarching condition would seem to be the growing sense that the chances of Republicans winning majority status back in the U.S. House are extremely low. For longtime members who have experienced life in the majority, it makes the prospects of returning in 2021 unattractive at best, particularly given the alternatives of spending more time at home with friends and family and/or pursuing the lucrative alternatives available to most former members. This seems most powerful in the cases of members retiring in solid Republican districts with no apparent challengers, like Mike Conaway (CD-11) and Flores. 

Looking foward to another bruising election cycle in what, for some of them, feels like a suddenly more competitive environment (again, only to return to a desultory life in the minority should they manage to eke out a win), has also been a factor for members anticipating a challending 2020 cycle, like retirees Kenny Marchant (CD-24) and Pete Olson (CD-22). This also applies to Will Hurd (CD-23), though Hurd was more accustomed to having to work for it in what until recently was the only truly competitve district in Texas.

Finally, there is also the difficulty that Hurd made much of when he quit: the experience of serving as an elected official in a party that seems to have changed significantly, first in the wake of the right wing populism embodied first in the Tea Party, and then by Donald Trump's ascension as the party's figurehead, agenda setter, and rhetorical tuning fork. Hurd was the most straightforward about this, though the more profiles-in-courage-ish accounts of his resignation are hard to reconcile with his assurance at the time that his "plan is to support the Republican nominee."

With Chip Roy's (CD-21) recent coyness about his reelection announcement at a Texas Tribune event, and John Carter (CD-31) assuring everyone that he is running, but coming off a very close re-election in 2018, the GOP incumbent watch will continue. The graphics below look at congressional turnover in the last several sessions overall, by cause of exit, and by party. The Texas Politics Project will keep these current, so bookmark the page.

* The graphics on this page are dynamically updated, so the graphics update automatically and this number surely change.

Congressional Turnover in the Texas Delegation

Congressional Turnover in the Texas Delegation

Congressional Turnover in the Texas Delegation