The February 2025 University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll was conducted as the Trump administration had begun fulfilling campaign promises to implement “mass deportations” and otherwise take the hardest of hard lines on both undocumented and documented immigrants in America. The poll (conducted February 14-24) found a mixture of familiar and surprising responses to some of the tactics promised by Trump – especially among Texas Republicans, who have for much of the past decade embraced enforcement-based, even punitive immigration and border policies.

On the familiar side, the poll found that Republican voters’ support for the idea of rapid, mass deportations reached the highest level since the question was first included more than a decade ago. 

Yet the salience of immigration and border security related issues continued a year-long decline. While pluralities of Republican voters approved of several of the specific tactics the Trump administration has floated, or threatened, to use to arrest and deport undocumented immigrants, the poll revealed reservations among significant shares of the same partisans who profess to support the immediate deportation of anyone in the country illegally, and who voted in overwhelming numbers to return Trump to the White House after a third consecutive presidential campaign with anti-immigration sentiment at its core.

It’s fair to point out that this pattern in opinions could be used to illustrate the by-now familiar phenomena of voters holding attitudes that are not internally consistent or at least are in tension, and/or attitudes (and survey responses) being sensitive to context. It’s reasonable to think that a voter might be (very) concerned about illegal immigration, hold a general attitude that undocumented immigrants should be summarily deported, but at the same time have reservations about more specific measures based on additional considerations not originally factored into the more general attitude. It’s not necessarily a matter of great cognitive dissonance to, simply put, make exceptions given a more specific context (see, for example, abortion attitudes).

Nonetheless, the patterns in the responses of Texas voters to items assessing the salience of immigration and border security overall, general views of undocumented immigrants, and specific policy actions in various forms of implementation by the current administration reveal some political gray areas in what has been treated as a largely black and white issue. The coincidence of changes in context – a new president, a major decrease in the flow of migrants, and the emergence of the economy as an major issue competing for attention – with the aggressive promotion of long-promised tactics, suggests some possible limits on what had heretofore been seemingly unlimited support for the kinds of unrelenting policies now being attempted by the Trump administration.

Support for Mass Deportation Among Declining Salience

Whatever the shifts in context, Texas Republican voters’ core commitment to the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants remained strong and widespread in the early weeks of Trump’s return to power. The February UT/TxPP Poll found no signs of a reduction in the near-consensus among Texas Republicans who agreed with the statement, “Undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States should be deported immediately." The 55% of Texas voters who agreed included 87% of Texas Republicans (50% strongly agree, 37% somewhat agree). The share of Republicans agreeing with the statement was the highest measured out of the 21 times the question has been included in the UT/TxPP Poll going back to 2014 (closely edging out 85% in June and October of 2024). 

While Republican support for de facto mass deportation hit a new high, Texas Democratic voters returned to a more familiar division of opinion in the same poll after two years of comparatively elevated support. One in five Democrats (21%) agreed with the immediate deportation position in February, ten points lower than the 31% who agreed in October 2024, and the smallest share since August 2022 (20%). Independents’ agreement fell within the two parties (35%).

Even as Republicans maintained their overwhelming support for the general concept of mass deportation, the same poll also discovered a continuing decrease in the salience they attached to the issues of immigration and the border. The share of Texas Republicans who named border security or immigration as the most important problem facing the state saw a steady decline since reaching a high of 68% in February of 2024, decreasing to 53% for each of the three polls conducted between August and December, and further still to 46% in February of this year. (This decline in the issue’s predominance among Republicans drove the general decline in the issue’s salience in the overall electorate over the same time period, from 42% in February of last year to 29% in February of this year.) 

In another indicator of the decreased salience of immigration issues, the poll also registered a significant decline in Texas Republicans’ level of concern about migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border. When asked to characterize their perception of the number of migrants attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, 64% of Republicans labeled it a crisis, showing that Republican voters continue to view border crossings in crisis terms despite the significant decrease in migration. But here too, the decline in intensity among Republicans is notable, with 74% and 75% labeling the situation “a crisis” in February and April of last year.

Republican concerns were significantly more intense than non-GOP aligned Texans: only 10% of Democrats and 31% of Independents also adopted the “crisis” view. Which isn’t to say there is no concern among Texans who do not identify as Republicans: 29% of Democrats considered migrant crossings a "very serious problem, but not a crisis," and 30% viewed it as a "somewhat serious problem."

But this ongoing decline in the salience of immigration-related issues is a significant shift in the political dynamics that define state politics. It comes at a time when Trump is implementing a widespread crackdown on both legal and undocumented immigrants, and expecting Texas state officials (and state funds) to support those efforts. For their part, led by Gov. Greg Abbott’s commitment to Operation Lone Star, and to the political benefits he’s gained from it both in the state and nationally, Texas’ Republican elected officials have neither the incentives nor any practical opportunity to declare Operation Lone Star a success. This is all the more the case as the Trump administration finds ways to direct immigration enforcement efforts in direction other than the currently much quieter southern border.

Trump is fulfilling promises made to a substantial faction of the electorate that embraced his militant, anti-immigration rhetoric across the last three elections, and now expect follow-through in both policy and tone. However, the February poll not only illustrates that the issue lost some (though by no means all) of its heat with Republican voters in Texas in the aftermath of Trump’s incendiary election campaign and subsequent victory; it also suggests that many Republicans’ have reservations about the extent of the measures Trump is using (or has threatened to use) to give the voters what they said they wanted when returning him to office.

The devil’s in the details?

When asked to consider specific means of achieving the deportation of undocumented immigrants, many Republicans blanched at some of the tactics supported by hardliners in the administration (and, of course, by Trump on the campaign trail). Lurking within their overall support for the concept of mass deportation are some apparent limits and even bright lines that Texas Republicans are apparently reluctant to cross in the pursuit of ridding the country of the undocumented.

Overall, majorities of Texas voters expressed opposition to the six, specific enforcement scenarios they were presented with:

• Deporting immigrants who were allowed into the U.S. because of political persecution or safety concerns in their home countries: 57% opposed; 32% support.

• Arresting people who are in the country illegally while they are at church: 60% opposed; 31% support.

• Arresting people who are in the country illegally while they are at a hospital: 61% opposed; 30% support.

• Arresting children who are in the country illegally while they are at school: 68% opposed; 24% support.

• Separating children from their parents when the parents are detained for entering the country illegally: 69% opposed; 22% support.

• Deporting young people who were brought to the United States illegally as children, completed high school or military service, and have not been convicted of a violent crime: 69% opposed; 22% support.

Unsurprisingly, Democrats expressed strong opposition to each of these measures, ranging between 80% to 92%. 

Among Republicans, the results were more mixed. None of the enforcement scenarios received support from a majority of Republicans. In fact, three of the scenarios triggered the opposition of a majority of Texas’ GOP voters:

• Arresting children at school (40% support; 51% oppose); 

• Separating children and parents who enter the country illegally (36% support; 52% oppose); and 

• Deporting young people brought to the U.S. as children who haven’t committed a crime, and have completed high school and/or military service (aka, “Dreamers”) (34% support; 55% oppose).

These results track with past UT/TxPP polling that has consistently found less GOP support for punitive measures that directly harm migrant or immigrant children. 

The other three scenarios received plurality support, though with significant opposition:

• Deporting asylum seekers (48% support; 40% oppose); 

• Arresting people while they are at a hospital (47% support; 43% oppose); and 

• Arresting people at church (47% support; 42% oppose).

Even looking beyond the specific case of children, the apparent appeal of campaign rhetoric painting many if not most immigrants as a fever nightmare of criminally and/or mentally ill people rushing the border apparently runs into some voters’ doubts when those same leaders, once in office, start considering rounding up these same apparent dangers to society at churches, hospitals, and primary schools.

Nor was there overwhelming Republican support for yet another item once thought to be symbolic, but now the subject of an executive order and slated to be reviewed in federal court: the doctrine of birthright citizenship. In an item repeated from 2011 and 2015 polling, the February poll asked Texans if they support repealing the part of the 14th Amendment that automatically grants all children born in the United States U.S. citizenship, regardless of their parents' legal status. 

The results revealed a decrease in support for repealing birthright citizenship – a surprising finding given the increasing centrality of anti-immigrant sentiment in mainstream political rhetoric and, now, government actions. In 2011, 53% of Texans supported repealing automatic citizenship to children born here of undocumented parents; in 2015, it dropped to 48%; and in 2025, only 36% supported repealing birthright citizenship, with 48% opposed.

As you may know, the 14th Amendment to the Constitution says that all children born in the United States are automatically U.S. citizens regardless of their parents' legal status. Would you favor or oppose changing the Constitution to REPEAL this part of the 14th Amendment? (University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Polling)
	Overall		Republicans		Independents		Democrats
	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose
2025	36%	48%	59%	24%	29%	54%	10%	77%
2015	48%	39%	66%	22%	43%	41%	28%	59%

A closer look at the data over this time period also suggests that Republicans’ support for repeal of birthright citizenship has declined from 75%, to 66%, to 59%, though it remains the majority position. Opposition remained flat over the last 10 years (22% in 2015, 24% in 2025). Support for repealing birthright citizenship dropped 18-points among Democrats, from 28% in 2015 to 10% today, while opposition increased 18-points, from 59% to 77%.

While the change among Democrats can be attributed largely to partisanship, other groups, for whom immigration and citizenship may have been less central concerns, are also showing a lot more uncertainty. Among Hispanics, for instance, the share in favor of repealing birthright citizenship dropped 9-points from 38% in 2015 to 29%, but opposition remained relatively unchanged, leaving those unsure or without an opinion to increase from 9% to 23%. A similar story emerges among voters under-30, with the share having no opinion increasing from 11% to 28% over the last 10 years, with both support and opposition decreasing in the meantime (though with majorities opposed in both decades).

Covering The Bases At The State Level

Critically for Republican office holders and potential candidates, their base voters continue to see immigration and the border as matters state government should be engaged in as indicated by the large numbers who still see these issues as the most important problem facing the state. Indeed, the February poll found most of them expecting the GOP-controlled legislature to address the issue. When asked about the importance of the “Texas Legislature directing state agencies and local law enforcement to cooperate with the federal government in enforcing federal immigration policies in Texas,” 87% of Republicans said it was either “extremely important” (59%) or “very important” (27%) — more than said the same about any of the 14 other priorities tested, including reducing property taxes and lowering prices. (And educational savings accounts.)

Legislators apparently hear their voters, whether in conversation back in the district, or via polling (public and private). Regardless of a change in the White House and the slowing of the flow of migrants to a trickle, the budget proposals working their way through both chambers include holding border security spending more or less stable at $6.5 billion — almost 8 times the line item in the first Texas budget of the first Trump presidency, $800 Million in the 2016-2017 biennium (or, almost 10 times the $663 million in the 2018-2019 budget).

State leaders’ apparent commitments to hold the line on border spending and to lend state support to federal immigration enforcement efforts stake out a clear commitment by the GOP leadership, public opinion gray areas on the boundaries of the Trump administration's efforts notwithstanding. While the polling results suggest some limits on how far some Republican voters are willing to go on the more draconian enforcement standards, supporting Trump on immigration and border enforcement remains the safest bet for Republicans elected officials in Texas. 

There are no doubt some deeply ingrained, learned behaviors among Texas leaders on display here. The state leadership's willingness to be a partner in the renewed efforts of the Trump administration redux, or, at least, not to signal any lack of resolve, reflects a decade of politics that have propelled the careers of both Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott – and their allies and hangers-on. Most elected Republican officials have internalized the lesson that among Republican voters, long focused on immigration and border security, Trump's efforts (whether successful or not) are unlikely to have much political downside in the near and medium-term. Even in areas where Trump may be perceived as “going too far”, his efforts are still in pursuit of a goal that GOP voters largely agree on, even if potential limits are emerging as the means to these ends become daily realities.

Republican officials (and everyone else) have seen this movie before. For example, in October 2018 UT/TxPP polling, half-way into Trump’s first term (when he had already proposed or tried to implement immigration bans, in particular, from Muslim countries, a halving of green cards, a cap on refugees, the border wall, etc.), a majority of Republicans said that his administration had “not gone far enough” in enforcing federal immigration laws, with only 9% saying his administration had gone “too far.”

Trump has also adjusted to some of the changes in context, including the huge reduction in migrant flows. In recent weeks, the administration's most high profile actions on immigration – the targeting of foreign students for arrest and attempted deportation for political speech critical of Israel and supportive of Palestinians, and the highly contested arrest and rapid deportation of alleged gang members to prisons in places like El Salvador and Guantanamo Bay – both avoid the cross-currents of the tactics included in the poll though a strategic choice of targets. The subjects of these blunt-force methods are easily portrayed as unsympathetic (even if sometimes with apparent disregard for evidence, due process, or clear legality). They also have the political benefit of drawing media and voter attention away from more dispersed enforcement efforts that might play less well than deporting immigrants who are accused of unpopular speech and illegal behavior. Trump has yet again reminded his Republican vassals of his ability to find new and unorthodox ways of activating anti-immigrant sentiments among his base, while defusing the ability of those who disagree with him to turn the issue against him.

Abbott’s approach has been similarly adroit at defining the conversation in the state while making his presence felt at the national level. His now-famous busing policy forced Democratic mayors to consider their cities’ unstated and sometimes outlined policies towards immigrants in stark, new realities while also garnering majority support in Texas (51%) as well as overwhelming support among his partisans (72% support; 20% oppose) —  and as recently reported (and expressed by Trump himself), a political payoff that accrued to both Abbott and Trump (as Jonathan Blitzer captured well in his New Yorker profile of Abbott last month).

However much the two leaders’ political trajectories are intertwined, Trump once again is defining the political dynamic around immigration issues. His reelection deprived Gov. Abbott of the ability to use Joe Biden (or any other Democrat) as a foil, after four years in which Abbott adeptly filled some of the void created by Trump’s 2020 defeat. The combination of Trump’s return and the emergence of the economy as an issue occupying more of voters' limited mental real estate greatly reduces Abbott’s initiative on immigration and border issues in Texas. With 2026 just around the corner, no Republican elected official is likely to follow the GOP voters who are showing less interest in immigration and the border now that Trump has taken political control of the situation.

At the same time, for many non-GOP voters, the issue of immigration and immigration enforcement are being forced to the forefront in a way that will require at least some of those same voters to consider their own either non-existent or underdeveloped attitudes about a bundle of related issues – immigration, the United States’ orientation towards it, its impact on the economy, and efforts to enforce existing laws and the impact of those efforts. 

Yet with Trump back in the driver’s seat, Republican state leaders and the legislature are once again yoked to the Trump administration’s approach to immigration and the border, even as voters, including their own, are expressing some reservations – and, perhaps more ominously, concern about issues, like the economy, on which Trump seems potentially more vulnerable among elements of his base and the swing voters who helped him persevere in a close election. Even as the widespread, reflexive embrace of punitive and restrictive immigration policies remains at the core of Texas Republican attitudes, Republican election officials remain subject to Trump’s apparent willingness to test the bounds of those commitments – and to gamble on economic policies that are diverting the attention of a growing number of concerned voters, including Republicans. Ironically, and worryingly for Texas Republicans going into an election year, Trump is probably the only Republican in power capable of effecting such a pivot, even if he is does it unintentionally.