2012 GOP Presidential Primary Vote Choice (September 2010)

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Vote Choice (September 2010)

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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized.

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categorycolumn-1
Mitt Romney13%
Sarah Palin20%
Newt Gingrich15%
Mike Huckabee13%
Tim Pawlenty1%
Haley Barbour2%
Jeb Bush2%
Rick Perry7%
Ron Paul8%
Don't know18%
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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized. Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Mitt Romney0%16%14%
Sarah Palin10%20%20%
Newt Gingrich0%0%16%
Mike Huckabee37%17%13%
Tim Pawlenty0%0%1%
Haley Barbour0%5%2%
Jeb Bush0%2%2%
Rick Perry10%2%8%
Ron Paul0%27%6%
Don't know43%11%17%
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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized. Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Mitt Romney14%13%15%
Sarah Palin20%16%22%
Newt Gingrich13%14%18%
Mike Huckabee8%17%13%
Tim Pawlenty3%0%1%
Haley Barbour0%0%3%
Jeb Bush3%0%3%
Rick Perry6%17%5%
Ron Paul11%9%4%
Don't know23%14%16%
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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized. Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Mitt Romney0%6%14%
Sarah Palin0%14%21%
Newt Gingrich0%0%16%
Mike Huckabee47%8%14%
Tim Pawlenty0%0%1%
Haley Barbour0%0%2%
Jeb Bush0%9%2%
Rick Perry0%11%7%
Ron Paul0%19%7%
Don't know53%32%17%
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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized. The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Mitt Romney22%16%9%
Sarah Palin14%16%28%
Newt Gingrich8%19%17%
Mike Huckabee17%14%12%
Tim Pawlenty3%1%1%
Haley Barbour0%3%2%
Jeb Bush3%1%2%
Rick Perry10%6%6%
Ron Paul8%7%6%
Don't know15%17%17%
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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized. Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Mitt Romney0%14%17%
Sarah Palin27%22%23%
Newt Gingrich0%18%8%
Mike Huckabee47%12%13%
Tim Pawlenty0%1%2%
Haley Barbour0%1%3%
Jeb Bush0%2%4%
Rick Perry0%10%4%
Ron Paul0%4%14%
Don't know27%17%12%
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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized. Race is calculated according to the RACE variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Mitt Romney14%0%11%
Sarah Palin18%100%27%
Newt Gingrich16%0%8%
Mike Huckabee15%0%10%
Tim Pawlenty1%0%0%
Haley Barbour2%0%1%
Jeb Bush3%0%0%
Rick Perry5%0%17%
Ron Paul7%0%4%
Don't know18%0%22%
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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized. Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Mitt Romney13%14%
Sarah Palin21%20%
Newt Gingrich18%11%
Mike Huckabee10%17%
Tim Pawlenty0%2%
Haley Barbour1%2%
Jeb Bush3%2%
Rick Perry9%5%
Ron Paul9%6%
Don't know16%21%
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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized. Location is based on the following question, "Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Mitt Romney10%13%17%
Sarah Palin20%20%21%
Newt Gingrich20%13%13%
Mike Huckabee15%12%15%
Tim Pawlenty0%1%2%
Haley Barbour1%2%2%
Jeb Bush1%2%5%
Rick Perry13%6%4%
Ron Paul5%10%5%
Don't know16%20%18%
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    Respondents indicating that they would vote in the Republican primary were asked, "If the 2012 Republican primary election for President were held today, would you vote for:" The order of the response options were randomized. Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Mitt Romney34%10%14%6%18%29%
Sarah Palin0%23%19%17%20%16%
Newt Gingrich44%17%11%16%13%10%
Mike Huckabee0%12%17%11%13%12%
Tim Pawlenty0%2%0%5%2%0%
Haley Barbour0%1%3%5%1%0%
Jeb Bush0%3%1%0%5%8%
Rick Perry23%7%8%0%5%9%
Ron Paul0%4%10%27%9%3%
Don't know0%22%17%14%15%13%

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