2012 Senate Election Match-Up (October 2012)

2012 Senate Election Match-Up (October 2012)

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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3.
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categorycolumn-1
Ted Cruz (Republican)52%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)37%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)2%
David Collins (Green)2%
Someone else1%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion5%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents . Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Ted Cruz (Republican)3%43%92%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)84%30%2%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)4%1%1%
David Collins (Green)5%3%0%
Someone else1%4%1%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion4%19%3%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Ted Cruz (Republican)90%78%98%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)2%8%0%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)3%0%0%
Someone else2%2%0%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion2%12%2%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Ted Cruz (Republican)0%19%0%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)72%69%92%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)10%7%0%
David Collins (Green)8%0%5%
Someone else0%0%1%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion10%6%1%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Ted Cruz (Republican)1%33%84%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)88%48%10%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)4%3%2%
David Collins (Green)4%5%0%
Someone else0%2%2%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion3%10%3%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Ted Cruz (Republican)74%94%78%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)18%1%16%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)0%2%2%
Someone else3%0%3%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion5%2%2%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Ted Cruz (Republican)0%1%2%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)87%90%87%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)4%4%5%
David Collins (Green)5%2%5%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion4%4%0%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Ted Cruz (Republican)2%94%90%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)89%2%4%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)3%0%5%
David Collins (Green)3%0%0%
Someone else1%1%0%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion2%3%1%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Race is calculated according to the RACE1 variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Ted Cruz (Republican)63%5%44%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)28%82%35%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)3%0%0%
David Collins (Green)1%0%8%
Someone else1%2%1%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion4%10%12%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Ted Cruz (Republican)55%49%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)36%37%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)2%2%
David Collins (Green)4%0%
Someone else1%2%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion2%9%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Location is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Ted Cruz (Republican)39%55%64%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)52%33%24%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)0%3%2%
David Collins (Green)6%0%2%
Someone else1%1%1%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion3%6%7%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Region is calculated according to the METRO variable.
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categoryHouston areaDallas-Fort Worth areaSan Antonio areaAustin areaAnother part of Texas
Ted Cruz (Republican)45%51%59%50%57%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)44%37%29%41%32%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)3%3%0%0%3%
David Collins (Green)5%1%0%6%0%
Someone else2%0%4%0%1%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion2%7%7%3%7%
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    Likely voters were asked," If the 2012 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Paul Sadler, the Libertarian John Jay Myers, the Green Party candidate David Collins, someone else, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn't know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found above. "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3. Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Ted Cruz (Republican)23%54%47%51%58%55%
Paul Sadler (Democrat)32%31%48%44%33%33%
John Jay Myers (Libertarian)6%4%1%1%2%3%
David Collins (Green)36%1%0%0%2%2%
Someone else0%1%1%1%1%2%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion3%9%3%3%4%4%

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