2024 Presidential Primary Choice (February 2024)

2024 Presidential Primary Choice (February 2024)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?"
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categoryTotal
The Republican primary47%
The Democratic primary39%
Wouldn't vote in either primary9%
Don't know6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
The Republican primary6%30%90%
The Democratic primary84%14%1%
Wouldn't vote in either primary6%33%7%
Don't know4%23%2%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
The Republican primary14%6%4%
The Democratic primary62%82%91%
Wouldn't vote in either primary15%8%3%
Don't know10%3%3%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
The Republican primary85%87%94%
The Democratic primary1%2%0%
Wouldn't vote in either primary12%7%4%
Don't know3%4%1%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
The Republican primary11%30%82%
The Democratic primary78%39%11%
Wouldn't vote in either primary7%17%5%
Don't know4%15%2%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
The Republican primary17%10%7%
The Democratic primary62%78%91%
Wouldn't vote in either primary15%7%1%
Don't know6%5%1%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
The Republican primary68%83%89%
The Democratic primary20%9%7%
Wouldn't vote in either primary10%5%2%
Don't know2%3%1%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
The Republican primary58%15%42%
The Democratic primary30%72%39%
Wouldn't vote in either primary7%6%12%
Don't know4%7%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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CategoryMaleFemale
The Republican primary50%44%
The Democratic primary36%41%
Wouldn't vote in either primary10%7%
Don't know4%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
The Republican primary36%47%71%
The Democratic primary48%38%20%
Wouldn't vote in either primary9%10%5%
Don't know7%5%4%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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Category18-2930-4445-6465+
The Republican primary38%38%49%58%
The Democratic primary44%45%37%32%
Wouldn't vote in either primary10%10%8%6%
Don't know8%6%5%4%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
The Republican primary38%53%51%43%45%38%
The Democratic primary41%31%34%45%41%50%
Wouldn't vote in either primary11%9%8%8%9%7%
Don't know10%7%7%4%4%5%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
The Republican primary56%45%39%27%
The Democratic primary32%42%45%49%
Wouldn't vote in either primary6%8%12%15%
Don't know6%5%4%8%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in [RANDOMIZE ‘the Republican primary’, ‘the Democratic primary’] the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
The Republican primary57%48%27%43%
The Democratic primary34%37%57%26%
Wouldn't vote in either primary5%11%11%13%
Don't know5%4%6%18%

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