GOP Presidential Primary Vote Choice (February 2014)

GOP Presidential Primary Vote Choice (February 2014)

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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?"

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categorycolumn-1
Rick Perry10%
Ted Cruz28%
Marco Rubio6%
Rand Paul10%
Chris Christie4%
Paul Ryan8%
Rick Santorum4%
Bobby Jindal6%
Jeb Bush8%
Scott Walker6%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion12%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents . Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Rick Perry5%14%10%
Ted Cruz3%18%30%
Marco Rubio10%10%6%
Rand Paul5%25%8%
Chris Christie20%7%3%
Paul Ryan10%1%8%
Rick Santorum17%0%4%
Bobby Jindal5%3%6%
Jeb Bush11%14%7%
Scott Walker0%1%6%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion15%7%12%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Rick Perry7%12%9%
Ted Cruz38%27%28%
Marco Rubio7%10%2%
Rand Paul12%4%9%
Chris Christie4%3%2%
Paul Ryan3%11%8%
Rick Santorum6%1%5%
Bobby Jindal3%3%10%
Jeb Bush7%8%7%
Scott Walker4%4%8%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion9%16%11%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Rick Perry6%15%9%
Ted Cruz24%10%32%
Marco Rubio0%7%6%
Rand Paul0%4%11%
Chris Christie25%8%2%
Paul Ryan3%6%8%
Rick Santorum0%3%4%
Bobby Jindal0%12%5%
Jeb Bush15%13%6%
Scott Walker0%2%7%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion27%20%9%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Rick Perry11%7%9%
Ted Cruz25%31%44%
Marco Rubio12%5%0%
Rand Paul11%11%12%
Chris Christie2%2%4%
Paul Ryan6%8%11%
Rick Santorum5%3%6%
Bobby Jindal3%8%2%
Jeb Bush9%5%6%
Scott Walker4%10%3%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion11%12%2%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Rick Perry19%20%1%
Ted Cruz0%15%49%
Marco Rubio28%5%3%
Rand Paul0%7%13%
Chris Christie34%4%2%
Paul Ryan2%10%7%
Rick Santorum0%3%3%
Bobby Jindal4%9%4%
Jeb Bush0%13%3%
Scott Walker3%3%9%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion9%10%7%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the RACE1 variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Rick Perry9%3%14%
Ted Cruz28%0%29%
Marco Rubio4%62%8%
Rand Paul11%0%5%
Chris Christie3%0%6%
Paul Ryan9%0%2%
Rick Santorum3%0%8%
Bobby Jindal7%0%2%
Jeb Bush7%18%10%
Scott Walker7%0%0%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion10%17%15%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Rick Perry8%12%
Ted Cruz30%26%
Marco Rubio8%3%
Rand Paul11%8%
Chris Christie3%5%
Paul Ryan7%8%
Rick Santorum3%5%
Bobby Jindal6%6%
Jeb Bush7%8%
Scott Walker6%5%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion10%13%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Community is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"

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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Rick Perry14%5%16%
Ted Cruz23%32%24%
Marco Rubio6%5%8%
Rand Paul11%9%10%
Chris Christie6%2%5%
Paul Ryan8%8%8%
Rick Santorum1%5%5%
Bobby Jindal10%5%4%
Jeb Bush5%10%7%
Scott Walker1%8%6%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion15%12%8%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Rick Perry10%10%11%12%8%9%
Ted Cruz27%29%26%37%22%35%
Marco Rubio12%4%6%14%5%3%
Rand Paul12%7%10%7%14%9%
Chris Christie0%7%3%0%5%0%
Paul Ryan4%12%8%4%5%9%
Rick Santorum8%4%3%3%4%4%
Bobby Jindal0%3%7%3%8%14%
Jeb Bush16%9%8%6%8%1%
Scott Walker5%6%4%1%6%10%
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion5%9%14%13%15%5%

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