Presidential Trial Ballot, Biden vs. Nikki Haley (December 2023)

Presidential Trial Ballot, Biden vs. Nikki Haley (December 2023)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
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categoryTotal
Joe Biden36%
Nikki Haley33%
Someone else20%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion11%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Joe Biden76%20%6%
Nikki Haley7%28%59%
Someone else8%34%26%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion9%18%9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Joe Biden64%64%86%
Nikki Haley14%6%4%
Someone else14%15%3%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion9%15%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Joe Biden5%11%5%
Nikki Haley58%52%63%
Someone else30%21%26%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion7%16%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Joe Biden75%40%8%
Nikki Haley11%18%58%
Someone else9%22%25%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion6%19%9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Joe Biden65%77%78%
Nikki Haley20%10%5%
Someone else11%6%10%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion5%7%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Joe Biden12%11%2%
Nikki Haley45%61%62%
Someone else28%23%25%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion14%5%10%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Joe Biden29%65%35%
Nikki Haley43%13%23%
Someone else20%5%29%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion8%16%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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CategoryMaleFemale
Joe Biden36%36%
Nikki Haley38%29%
Someone else21%19%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion6%16%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Joe Biden46%34%22%
Nikki Haley30%33%40%
Someone else14%20%29%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion10%13%9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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Category18-2930-4445-6465+
Joe Biden45%39%33%30%
Nikki Haley20%26%38%45%
Someone else20%24%20%16%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion15%12%10%9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Joe Biden37%30%34%28%39%49%
Nikki Haley35%33%27%40%34%34%
Someone else14%26%22%21%18%10%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion14%12%17%11%8%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Joe Biden28%32%46%56%
Nikki Haley38%34%28%21%
Someone else22%22%15%15%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion12%12%11%8%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Nikki Haley”] Joe Biden and Nikki Haley, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
Joe Biden30%31%57%25%
Nikki Haley37%40%18%23%
Someone else21%21%16%25%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion13%8%9%27%

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