Presidential Trial Ballot, Biden vs. Ron DeSantis (December 2023)

Presidential Trial Ballot, Biden vs. Ron DeSantis (December 2023)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
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categoryTotal
Joe Biden37%
Ron DeSantis39%
Someone else15%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Joe Biden79%26%6%
Ron DeSantis3%34%73%
Someone else10%27%15%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion8%13%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Joe Biden70%66%89%
Ron DeSantis4%5%2%
Someone else19%16%3%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion7%13%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Joe Biden5%11%3%
Ron DeSantis76%67%74%
Someone else12%16%16%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion7%6%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Joe Biden79%43%7%
Ron DeSantis7%22%72%
Someone else10%20%14%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion5%16%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Joe Biden71%83%80%
Ron DeSantis13%5%5%
Someone else13%8%9%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion4%4%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Joe Biden9%8%2%
Ron DeSantis62%75%77%
Someone else18%14%12%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion11%3%9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Joe Biden31%65%37%
Ron DeSantis50%16%28%
Someone else13%6%25%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion6%13%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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CategoryMaleFemale
Joe Biden37%37%
Ron DeSantis44%35%
Someone else15%14%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion4%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Joe Biden47%36%24%
Ron DeSantis34%39%49%
Someone else12%15%20%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion8%10%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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Category18-2930-4445-6465+
Joe Biden45%41%36%30%
Ron DeSantis25%30%43%55%
Someone else16%20%14%9%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion15%9%7%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Joe Biden35%32%37%30%40%49%
Ron DeSantis40%41%37%45%39%35%
Someone else10%19%12%18%14%10%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion15%8%14%7%7%5%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Joe Biden29%32%48%62%
Ron DeSantis46%42%30%21%
Someone else14%18%14%12%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion10%9%8%5%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Ron DeSantis”] Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
Joe Biden30%32%60%33%
Ron DeSantis46%47%19%21%
Someone else15%14%14%21%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion10%7%7%24%

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