Presidential Trial Ballot, Biden vs. Tim Scott (October 2023)

Presidential Trial Ballot, Biden vs. Tim Scott (October 2023)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
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categoryTotal
Joe Biden34%
Tim Scott33%
Someone else19%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion14%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Joe Biden74%15%4%
Tim Scott5%25%60%
Someone else9%40%24%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion12%20%12%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Joe Biden61%63%88%
Tim Scott10%7%2%
Someone else18%11%2%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion11%20%8%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Joe Biden3%4%5%
Tim Scott65%44%65%
Someone else23%33%19%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion8%19%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Joe Biden71%33%8%
Tim Scott6%25%59%
Someone else12%22%22%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion11%19%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Joe Biden60%74%77%
Tim Scott12%5%1%
Someone else15%9%13%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion13%12%9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Joe Biden17%7%3%
Tim Scott44%61%67%
Someone else24%19%23%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion15%13%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Joe Biden28%60%37%
Tim Scott42%12%25%
Someone else19%16%19%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion11%12%19%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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CategoryMaleFemale
Joe Biden33%35%
Tim Scott42%26%
Someone else19%19%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion6%20%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Joe Biden44%33%21%
Tim Scott28%34%41%
Someone else16%20%20%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion12%13%18%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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Category18-2930-4445-6465+
Joe Biden44%37%30%31%
Tim Scott16%30%37%44%
Someone else21%18%22%13%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion18%14%11%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Joe Biden46%32%29%27%37%46%
Tim Scott13%31%38%29%35%36%
Someone else13%20%19%31%18%9%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion28%18%14%14%10%9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Joe Biden26%31%47%52%
Tim Scott40%35%23%19%
Someone else20%17%19%18%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion13%16%11%12%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Joe Biden”, “Tim Scott”] Joe Biden and Tim Scott, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
Joe Biden25%32%57%24%
Tim Scott37%37%20%35%
Someone else24%18%12%22%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion14%13%12%19%

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