Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice: First Choice (November 2015)

Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice: First Choice (November 2015)

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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized.
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categorycolumn-1
Donald Trump27%
Ted Cruz27%
Ben Carson13%
Marco Rubio9%
Jeb Bush4%
Carly Fiorina4%
Rand Paul4%
Mike Huckabee2%
John Kasich1%
Chris Christie1%
Rick Santorum1%
Bobby Jindal0%
Lindsey Graham0%
George Pataki0%
Jim Gilmore0%
Don't know5%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Donald Trump48%28%26%
Ted Cruz13%24%28%
Ben Carson2%8%15%
Marco Rubio0%13%9%
Jeb Bush8%0%5%
Carly Fiorina7%3%4%
Rand Paul0%10%2%
Mike Huckabee0%0%3%
John Kasich8%5%1%
Chris Christie3%0%1%
Rick Santorum3%3%0%
Bobby Jindal0%0%1%
Lindsey Graham0%0%0%
George Pataki0%1%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know9%5%5%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Donald Trump25%28%27%
Ted Cruz32%19%31%
Ben Carson21%13%12%
Marco Rubio6%9%11%
Jeb Bush0%9%5%
Carly Fiorina3%6%4%
Rand Paul4%2%1%
Mike Huckabee3%3%2%
John Kasich2%0%1%
Chris Christie1%1%1%
Rick Santorum0%0%0%
Bobby Jindal0%1%1%
Lindsey Graham2%0%0%
George Pataki0%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know3%9%4%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Donald Trump47%42%24%
Ted Cruz17%8%31%
Ben Carson0%10%15%
Marco Rubio16%9%8%
Jeb Bush6%3%4%
Carly Fiorina7%2%5%
Rand Paul0%5%3%
Mike Huckabee0%3%2%
John Kasich5%4%1%
Chris Christie0%0%1%
Rick Santorum0%1%0%
Bobby Jindal0%0%1%
Lindsey Graham0%0%0%
George Pataki0%1%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know3%13%4%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Donald Trump26%21%26%
Ted Cruz10%31%43%
Ben Carson16%16%13%
Marco Rubio6%13%5%
Jeb Bush7%4%2%
Carly Fiorina8%5%2%
Rand Paul11%2%1%
Mike Huckabee2%2%2%
John Kasich1%1%0%
Chris Christie1%1%2%
Rick Santorum0%0%1%
Bobby Jindal3%0%0%
Lindsey Graham2%0%0%
George Pataki0%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know7%3%4%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Donald Trump54%30%23%
Ted Cruz11%15%47%
Ben Carson3%12%11%
Marco Rubio0%13%5%
Jeb Bush6%7%1%
Carly Fiorina0%5%3%
Rand Paul5%2%4%
Mike Huckabee0%4%1%
John Kasich14%1%1%
Chris Christie0%2%1%
Rick Santorum0%1%0%
Bobby Jindal0%1%0%
Lindsey Graham0%0%0%
George Pataki3%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know5%8%2%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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categoryThe Bible is the word of God, to be taken literallyThe Bible is the word of God, not to be taken literallyThe Bible is a book written by men
Donald Trump28%26%30%
Ted Cruz31%28%15%
Ben Carson16%13%10%
Marco Rubio4%11%15%
Jeb Bush4%5%4%
Carly Fiorina2%5%7%
Rand Paul3%2%7%
Mike Huckabee3%2%0%
John Kasich0%2%4%
Chris Christie1%1%1%
Rick Santorum2%0%0%
Bobby Jindal1%1%0%
Lindsey Graham0%0%3%
George Pataki0%0%1%
Don't know7%4%5%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Religiousity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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categoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Donald Trump24%29%23%50%
Ted Cruz27%30%30%10%
Ben Carson17%8%16%3%
Marco Rubio9%7%19%6%
Jeb Bush4%6%0%2%
Carly Fiorina4%6%2%3%
Rand Paul3%5%1%11%
Mike Huckabee3%0%4%0%
John Kasich1%1%4%3%
Chris Christie1%1%0%0%
Rick Santorum1%0%0%0%
Bobby Jindal0%1%0%0%
Lindsey Graham0%1%0%0%
George Pataki0%0%1%0%
Don't know6%4%1%13%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Donald Trump27%17%34%
Ted Cruz29%19%21%
Ben Carson13%8%14%
Marco Rubio8%0%13%
Jeb Bush4%0%8%
Carly Fiorina4%17%2%
Rand Paul4%10%2%
Mike Huckabee3%0%0%
John Kasich2%0%0%
Chris Christie1%0%1%
Rick Santorum0%0%1%
Bobby Jindal0%7%0%
Lindsey Graham0%0%0%
George Pataki0%0%1%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know6%22%4%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Donald Trump25%30%
Ted Cruz36%17%
Ben Carson13%14%
Marco Rubio8%10%
Jeb Bush3%6%
Carly Fiorina3%5%
Rand Paul4%3%
Mike Huckabee2%2%
John Kasich2%1%
Chris Christie0%2%
Rick Santorum0%1%
Bobby Jindal0%1%
Lindsey Graham0%1%
George Pataki0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%
Don't know3%8%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Community is based on the following question, "Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Donald Trump22%31%24%
Ted Cruz25%26%31%
Ben Carson10%13%17%
Marco Rubio13%8%7%
Jeb Bush7%3%3%
Carly Fiorina4%6%1%
Rand Paul7%2%4%
Mike Huckabee1%2%4%
John Kasich1%2%1%
Chris Christie0%1%2%
Rick Santorum0%1%1%
Bobby Jindal0%1%0%
Lindsey Graham2%0%0%
George Pataki0%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know8%5%5%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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category18-2930-4445-6465+
Donald Trump24%22%31%28%
Ted Cruz22%21%28%33%
Ben Carson14%14%15%11%
Marco Rubio6%8%7%13%
Jeb Bush7%8%4%1%
Carly Fiorina3%8%3%4%
Rand Paul7%7%3%0%
Mike Huckabee5%3%1%2%
John Kasich0%1%2%2%
Chris Christie1%0%1%2%
Rick Santorum1%0%0%1%
Bobby Jindal0%0%1%0%
Lindsey Graham0%2%0%0%
George Pataki0%0%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%0%
Don't know12%7%4%3%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Donald Trump63%28%31%24%19%7%
Ted Cruz18%31%29%28%25%23%
Ben Carson5%12%16%17%14%13%
Marco Rubio4%8%6%2%11%22%
Jeb Bush5%4%2%4%5%10%
Carly Fiorina0%2%3%3%9%8%
Rand Paul0%3%4%9%5%0%
Mike Huckabee0%5%0%1%2%3%
John Kasich0%0%2%2%2%2%
Chris Christie0%1%0%1%1%5%
Rick Santorum0%1%1%2%0%0%
Bobby Jindal0%0%0%1%1%2%
Lindsey Graham0%0%0%0%0%4%
George Pataki0%0%0%0%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%0%0%0%
Don't know5%6%7%5%5%2%

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