Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice (June 2015)

Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice (June 2015)

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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?"
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categorycolumn-1
Ted Cruz20%
Rick Perry12%
Scott Walker10%
Marco Rubio8%
Jeb Bush7%
Rand Paul6%
Ben Carson6%
Mike Huckabee5%
Carly Fiorina3%
Rick Santorum2%
Donald Trump2%
Chris Christie1%
John Kasich1%
Lindsey Graham1%
Bobby Jindal1%
George Pataki0%
Don't know15%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Ted Cruz0%19%20%
Rick Perry17%6%13%
Scott Walker0%6%11%
Marco Rubio0%10%9%
Jeb Bush7%0%7%
Rand Paul32%21%5%
Ben Carson0%6%6%
Mike Huckabee0%2%5%
Carly Fiorina0%6%4%
Rick Santorum3%0%2%
Donald Trump7%5%1%
Chris Christie7%0%1%
John Kasich0%0%1%
Lindsey Graham4%0%1%
Bobby Jindal0%5%1%
George Pataki0%0%0%
Don't know23%14%14%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Ted Cruz26%14%20%
Rick Perry6%13%16%
Scott Walker11%5%15%
Marco Rubio12%7%7%
Jeb Bush5%11%6%
Rand Paul6%1%6%
Ben Carson9%5%4%
Mike Huckabee2%2%9%
Carly Fiorina4%6%2%
Rick Santorum2%3%1%
Donald Trump0%1%2%
Chris Christie0%4%0%
John Kasich3%0%0%
Lindsey Graham3%1%0%
Bobby Jindal0%2%0%
George Pataki1%0%0%
Don't know10%24%11%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Ted Cruz21%13%22%
Rick Perry4%20%11%
Scott Walker0%0%12%
Marco Rubio0%7%9%
Jeb Bush4%12%6%
Rand Paul25%6%6%
Ben Carson4%1%7%
Mike Huckabee3%0%6%
Carly Fiorina6%5%3%
Rick Santorum5%1%2%
Donald Trump3%2%1%
Chris Christie2%2%1%
John Kasich0%0%1%
Lindsey Graham0%5%0%
Bobby Jindal0%0%1%
George Pataki2%0%0%
Don't know21%26%12%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Ted Cruz15%22%25%
Rick Perry5%10%15%
Scott Walker5%15%15%
Marco Rubio8%11%6%
Jeb Bush9%7%2%
Rand Paul11%4%5%
Ben Carson7%6%8%
Mike Huckabee1%5%9%
Carly Fiorina4%5%1%
Rick Santorum2%1%3%
Donald Trump1%1%2%
Chris Christie4%0%0%
John Kasich3%1%0%
Lindsey Graham2%0%0%
Bobby Jindal1%1%2%
George Pataki1%0%0%
Don't know20%12%7%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Ted Cruz0%14%35%
Rick Perry8%17%7%
Scott Walker0%6%16%
Marco Rubio0%8%8%
Jeb Bush23%11%1%
Rand Paul36%4%5%
Ben Carson0%6%6%
Mike Huckabee0%6%5%
Carly Fiorina0%2%5%
Rick Santorum5%1%2%
Donald Trump4%3%0%
Chris Christie10%1%0%
John Kasich0%1%0%
Lindsey Graham0%1%0%
Bobby Jindal0%2%0%
George Pataki0%0%1%
Don't know14%17%9%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Ted Cruz20%21%18%
Rick Perry12%0%14%
Scott Walker11%13%7%
Marco Rubio8%0%11%
Jeb Bush7%15%2%
Rand Paul7%0%3%
Ben Carson6%0%5%
Mike Huckabee5%0%5%
Carly Fiorina3%6%6%
Rick Santorum2%6%1%
Donald Trump1%7%2%
Chris Christie1%0%3%
John Kasich1%0%0%
Lindsey Graham1%0%0%
Bobby Jindal1%0%0%
George Pataki0%6%1%
Don't know14%25%20%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Ted Cruz22%18%
Rick Perry10%15%
Scott Walker15%5%
Marco Rubio9%8%
Jeb Bush4%9%
Rand Paul7%5%
Ben Carson5%6%
Mike Huckabee5%4%
Carly Fiorina3%4%
Rick Santorum2%2%
Donald Trump2%1%
Chris Christie1%1%
John Kasich1%0%
Lindsey Graham0%2%
Bobby Jindal0%2%
George Pataki0%0%
Don't know13%17%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Community is based on the following question, "Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Ted Cruz14%21%24%
Rick Perry12%13%11%
Scott Walker5%11%13%
Marco Rubio8%7%11%
Jeb Bush7%7%6%
Rand Paul6%7%4%
Ben Carson4%6%6%
Mike Huckabee5%4%8%
Carly Fiorina5%3%3%
Rick Santorum2%2%2%
Donald Trump3%1%3%
Chris Christie4%1%0%
John Kasich1%1%1%
Lindsey Graham2%1%0%
Bobby Jindal3%0%1%
George Pataki2%0%0%
Don't know18%17%7%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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category18-2930-4445-6465+
Ted Cruz15%16%23%20%
Rick Perry19%13%10%12%
Scott Walker2%6%14%10%
Marco Rubio5%4%7%14%
Jeb Bush5%4%9%6%
Rand Paul12%12%4%4%
Ben Carson0%7%7%6%
Mike Huckabee3%4%4%7%
Carly Fiorina2%4%3%5%
Rick Santorum3%3%2%0%
Donald Trump4%4%0%1%
Chris Christie3%3%0%1%
John Kasich0%0%0%2%
Lindsey Graham1%2%0%2%
Bobby Jindal0%0%2%0%
George Pataki0%1%0%1%
Don't know25%17%15%9%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, haven't you though about it enough to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Ted Cruz18%22%21%14%22%16%
Rick Perry45%7%15%14%10%9%
Scott Walker0%13%12%5%7%12%
Marco Rubio11%9%7%12%6%9%
Jeb Bush6%8%7%7%8%0%
Rand Paul14%4%7%2%6%11%
Ben Carson0%7%2%7%11%4%
Mike Huckabee0%5%3%11%3%7%
Carly Fiorina0%2%2%10%4%6%
Rick Santorum0%1%0%6%2%3%
Donald Trump0%1%2%3%2%0%
Chris Christie0%0%1%0%1%4%
John Kasich0%1%0%0%2%2%
Lindsey Graham0%1%1%0%0%3%
Bobby Jindal0%0%1%0%1%4%
George Pataki0%1%0%1%0%0%
Don't know5%17%18%9%15%11%

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