Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice: Second Choice (November 2015)

Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice: Second Choice (November 2015)

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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized.
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categorycolumn-1
Ben Carson19%
Ted Cruz19%
Donald Trump15%
Marco Rubio10%
Carly Fiorina7%
Jeb Bush6%
Mike Huckabee5%
Chris Christie4%
Rand Paul3%
John Kasich2%
Bobby Jindal1%
Rick Santorum1%
George Pataki1%
Lindsey Graham0%
Jim Gilmore0%
Don't know7%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Ben Carson30%15%19%
Ted Cruz3%10%20%
Donald Trump0%18%16%
Marco Rubio5%4%11%
Carly Fiorina3%9%8%
Jeb Bush8%0%6%
Mike Huckabee22%0%4%
Chris Christie6%9%4%
Rand Paul0%2%3%
John Kasich0%5%2%
Bobby Jindal0%0%1%
Rick Santorum0%0%1%
George Pataki11%3%0%
Lindsey Graham0%1%0%
Jim Gilmore3%0%0%
Don't know8%23%5%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Ben Carson18%21%19%
Ted Cruz24%11%23%
Donald Trump25%11%12%
Marco Rubio12%10%11%
Carly Fiorina2%9%10%
Jeb Bush3%13%5%
Mike Huckabee3%2%5%
Chris Christie3%5%3%
Rand Paul3%6%2%
John Kasich2%1%2%
Bobby Jindal1%2%1%
Rick Santorum2%1%0%
George Pataki0%0%0%
Lindsey Graham0%1%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know2%8%5%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Ben Carson23%18%19%
Ted Cruz12%10%21%
Donald Trump0%7%17%
Marco Rubio3%7%11%
Carly Fiorina3%3%8%
Jeb Bush17%14%4%
Mike Huckabee23%4%4%
Chris Christie0%9%3%
Rand Paul5%0%3%
John Kasich0%3%2%
Bobby Jindal0%0%2%
Rick Santorum0%0%1%
George Pataki9%2%0%
Lindsey Graham0%1%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know5%23%4%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Ben Carson15%22%18%
Ted Cruz13%21%24%
Donald Trump15%15%20%
Marco Rubio10%12%10%
Carly Fiorina10%9%6%
Jeb Bush7%3%4%
Mike Huckabee2%4%4%
Chris Christie5%4%2%
Rand Paul8%1%4%
John Kasich4%2%0%
Bobby Jindal1%1%3%
Rick Santorum0%2%0%
George Pataki0%0%0%
Lindsey Graham1%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know8%3%4%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Ben Carson20%16%26%
Ted Cruz4%19%21%
Donald Trump0%9%24%
Marco Rubio8%10%9%
Carly Fiorina0%8%7%
Jeb Bush10%12%1%
Mike Huckabee29%4%4%
Chris Christie3%4%2%
Rand Paul0%4%1%
John Kasich0%3%0%
Bobby Jindal0%1%2%
Rick Santorum0%2%0%
George Pataki16%0%0%
Lindsey Graham3%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know8%6%3%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Ben Carson18%59%20%
Ted Cruz18%8%20%
Donald Trump17%0%7%
Marco Rubio11%22%7%
Carly Fiorina7%0%9%
Jeb Bush5%0%9%
Mike Huckabee4%0%10%
Chris Christie4%0%3%
Rand Paul3%0%4%
John Kasich2%0%0%
Bobby Jindal2%0%0%
Rick Santorum0%0%3%
George Pataki0%0%2%
Lindsey Graham0%0%1%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know7%10%6%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Community is based on the following question, "Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Ben Carson18%19%20%
Ted Cruz12%23%16%
Donald Trump13%13%22%
Marco Rubio6%12%10%
Carly Fiorina13%5%9%
Jeb Bush8%6%4%
Mike Huckabee5%5%3%
Chris Christie4%5%2%
Rand Paul3%2%5%
John Kasich2%2%1%
Bobby Jindal2%1%2%
Rick Santorum1%1%0%
George Pataki2%0%1%
Lindsey Graham0%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know12%5%6%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Ben Carson19%19%
Ted Cruz18%20%
Donald Trump19%10%
Marco Rubio11%10%
Carly Fiorina7%8%
Jeb Bush7%5%
Mike Huckabee5%5%
Chris Christie2%6%
Rand Paul3%3%
John Kasich1%3%
Bobby Jindal1%2%
Rick Santorum1%0%
George Pataki1%0%
Lindsey Graham0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%
Don't know5%9%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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category18-2930-4445-6465+
Ben Carson12%23%20%17%
Ted Cruz13%15%20%22%
Donald Trump5%9%19%19%
Marco Rubio9%10%11%11%
Carly Fiorina7%7%8%8%
Jeb Bush23%9%2%1%
Mike Huckabee1%7%4%5%
Chris Christie2%2%4%7%
Rand Paul7%4%2%2%
John Kasich3%2%1%3%
Bobby Jindal2%0%2%1%
Rick Santorum0%0%1%2%
George Pataki0%0%2%0%
Lindsey Graham0%0%0%0%
Jim Gilmore1%0%0%0%
Don't know13%12%5%3%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Ben Carson16%19%20%13%21%21%
Ted Cruz24%23%18%20%16%15%
Donald Trump24%17%14%20%11%11%
Marco Rubio0%9%12%3%17%10%
Carly Fiorina0%6%10%5%7%15%
Jeb Bush11%7%5%5%5%5%
Mike Huckabee16%3%6%2%4%0%
Chris Christie0%5%4%0%8%0%
Rand Paul0%3%3%10%1%4%
John Kasich5%0%1%0%1%12%
Bobby Jindal0%1%1%0%4%2%
Rick Santorum0%2%0%0%1%0%
George Pataki0%2%0%0%0%2%
Lindsey Graham0%1%0%0%0%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%2%0%0%
Don't know5%5%7%20%6%2%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Religiousity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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categoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Ben Carson23%15%12%18%
Ted Cruz19%17%19%28%
Donald Trump13%22%12%3%
Marco Rubio11%9%12%12%
Carly Fiorina8%6%12%3%
Jeb Bush7%4%11%0%
Mike Huckabee6%3%3%0%
Chris Christie2%8%6%3%
Rand Paul3%3%3%4%
John Kasich1%4%0%7%
Bobby Jindal2%1%0%0%
Rick Santorum0%2%0%0%
George Pataki0%0%0%10%
Lindsey Graham0%0%2%0%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%0%
Don't know6%6%9%14%
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    Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized. Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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categoryThe Bible is the word of God, to be taken literallyThe Bible is the word of God, not to be taken literallyThe Bible is a book written by men
Ben Carson21%21%10%
Ted Cruz24%16%21%
Donald Trump14%17%11%
Marco Rubio8%12%9%
Carly Fiorina5%9%7%
Jeb Bush6%6%5%
Mike Huckabee6%5%0%
Chris Christie2%4%10%
Rand Paul3%3%2%
John Kasich0%2%6%
Bobby Jindal3%0%0%
Rick Santorum1%0%0%
George Pataki0%0%4%
Lindsey Graham0%0%1%
Jim Gilmore0%0%0%
Don't know7%4%14%

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