U.S. Congress Trial Ballot (December 2023)

U.S. Congress Trial Ballot (December 2023)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
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categoryTotal
The Republican candidate46%
The Democratic candidate38%
Someone else5%
Don't know/No opinion11%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
The Republican candidate2%27%91%
The Democratic candidate88%14%2%
Someone else3%18%2%
Don't know/No opinion7%41%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
The Republican candidate7%2%0%
The Democratic candidate75%86%95%
Someone else10%2%0%
Don't know/No opinion8%10%5%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
The Republican candidate85%87%97%
The Democratic candidate0%3%2%
Someone else2%3%1%
Don't know/No opinion12%8%1%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
The Republican candidate7%29%83%
The Democratic candidate84%41%7%
Someone else4%9%2%
Don't know/No opinion6%21%8%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
The Republican candidate14%5%5%
The Democratic candidate75%88%85%
Someone else4%3%4%
Don't know/No opinion7%4%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
The Republican candidate65%84%94%
The Democratic candidate9%10%2%
Someone else3%2%0%
Don't know/No opinion23%4%4%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
The Republican candidate58%14%37%
The Democratic candidate29%68%43%
Someone else3%4%7%
Don't know/No opinion10%14%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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CategoryMaleFemale
The Republican candidate49%44%
The Democratic candidate38%38%
Someone else5%4%
Don't know/No opinion9%14%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
The Republican candidate36%46%64%
The Democratic candidate47%36%26%
Someone else4%5%4%
Don't know/No opinion12%12%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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Category18-2930-4445-6465+
The Republican candidate31%40%49%59%
The Democratic candidate43%44%35%32%
Someone else8%4%5%2%
Don't know/No opinion18%11%11%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
The Republican candidate66%48%45%52%45%33%
The Democratic candidate28%35%37%34%39%51%
Someone else2%7%3%7%5%2%
Don't know/No opinion4%10%14%8%12%14%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
The Republican candidate57%49%31%20%
The Democratic candidate29%32%50%64%
Someone else3%8%6%5%
Don't know/No opinion11%11%13%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
The Republican candidate57%53%20%28%
The Democratic candidate30%33%60%37%
Someone else4%4%8%8%
Don't know/No opinion9%10%12%27%

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