U.S. Congress Trial Ballot (October 2018)

U.S. Congress Trial Ballot (October 2018)

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A tighter than usual congressional trial ballot emerges in the latest UT/TT polling with a number of competitive races across the state.

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categoryTotal
Democratic candidate46%
Republican candidate54%
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    Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents . Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Democratic candidate98%45%4%
Republican candidate2%55%96%
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    Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Democratic candidate97%95%99%
Republican candidate3%5%1%
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    Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Democratic candidate7%6%1%
Republican candidate93%94%99%
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    Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Democratic candidate96%63%9%
Republican candidate4%37%91%
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    The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Democratic candidate96%98%95%
Republican candidate4%2%5%
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    The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Democratic candidate30%9%3%
Republican candidate70%91%97%
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    Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Democratic candidate99%3%7%
Republican candidate1%97%93%
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    Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Democratic candidate34%82%65%
Republican candidate66%18%35%
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    Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Democratic candidate39%52%
Republican candidate61%48%
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    Community is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Democratic candidate63%43%30%
Republican candidate37%57%70%
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    Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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category18-2930-4445-6465+
Democratic candidate70%56%39%35%
Republican candidate30%44%61%65%
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    Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Democratic candidate70%42%48%49%40%51%
Republican candidate30%58%52%51%60%49%
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    Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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categoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Democratic candidate31%49%57%69%
Republican candidate69%51%43%31%
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    Respondents were asked, "" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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categoryThe Bible is the word of God, to be taken literallyThe Bible is the word of God, not to be taken literallyThe Bible is a book written by men
Democratic candidate26%41%73%
Republican candidate74%59%27%

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