U.S. Congress Trial Ballot (October 2022)
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]". Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
category | Total |
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Republican candidate | 53% |
Democratic candidate | 44% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 4% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
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Republican candidate | 2% | 46% | 96% |
Democratic candidate | 96% | 24% | 3% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 1% | 30% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | Lean Democrat | Not very strong Democrat | Strong Democrat |
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Republican candidate | 2% | 8% | 0% |
Democratic candidate | 96% | 89% | 99% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 2% | 3% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | Lean Republican | Not very strong Republican | Strong Republican |
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Republican candidate | 92% | 93% | 99% |
Democratic candidate | 7% | 4% | 1% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 1% | 3% | 0% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | Liberals | Moderates | Conservatives |
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Republican candidate | 6% | 30% | 92% |
Democratic candidate | 93% | 59% | 6% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 1% | 11% | 2% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | Lean liberal | Somewhat liberal | Extremely liberal |
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Republican candidate | 7% | 4% | 6% |
Democratic candidate | 91% | 95% | 93% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 3% | 1% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
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Republican candidate | 76% | 94% | 98% |
Democratic candidate | 21% | 4% | 1% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 3% | 2% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Race is calculated according to the race variable.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | White | Black | Hispanic |
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Republican candidate | 65% | 7% | 44% |
Democratic candidate | 33% | 91% | 49% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 2% | 2% | 7% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | Male | Female |
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Republican candidate | 56% | 50% |
Democratic candidate | 41% | 47% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 4% | 3% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?". Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | Urban | Suburban | Rural |
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Republican candidate | 33% | 54% | 76% |
Democratic candidate | 62% | 43% | 21% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 5% | 3% | 3% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | 65+ |
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Republican candidate | 35% | 42% | 59% | 61% |
Democratic candidate | 63% | 49% | 38% | 38% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 2% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | No HS | High school graduate | Some college | 2-year | 4-year | Post-grad |
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Republican candidate | 65% | 54% | 57% | 48% | 53% | 45% |
Democratic candidate | 33% | 39% | 41% | 44% | 45% | 53% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 1% | 6% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 3% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | Extremely important | Somewhat important | Not very important | Not at all important |
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Republican candidate | 71% | 50% | 48% | 21% |
Democratic candidate | 26% | 48% | 48% | 72% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 3% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2022 election for the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-2]" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.. Likely voters were defined as those respondents who indicated that they have voted in every election in the past 2-3 years in response to Q2; or those respondents who rated their likelihood to vote in the November eletions on a 10-point scale as a 9 or a 10 in response to Q3B.
Category | The Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word. | The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word. | The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God. | Don't know. |
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Republican candidate | 68% | 61% | 24% | 60% |
Democratic candidate | 29% | 36% | 71% | 34% |
Haven't thought enough about it to have an opinion | 3% | 3% | 5% | 6% |