U.S. Congress Trial Ballot (October 2023)

U.S. Congress Trial Ballot (October 2023)

  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
Loading chart...
categoryTotal
The Republican candidate47%
The Democratic candidate38%
Someone else6%
Don't know/No opinion9%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
Loading chart...
CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
The Republican candidate2%22%92%
The Democratic candidate87%15%2%
Someone else6%27%1%
Don't know/No opinion5%37%5%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
Loading chart...
CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
The Republican candidate2%3%1%
The Democratic candidate74%86%96%
Someone else14%4%1%
Don't know/No opinion10%7%2%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
Loading chart...
CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
The Republican candidate85%92%96%
The Democratic candidate1%2%2%
Someone else2%1%1%
Don't know/No opinion11%5%1%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
Loading chart...
CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
The Republican candidate7%33%85%
The Democratic candidate79%39%8%
Someone else8%10%1%
Don't know/No opinion6%18%6%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
Loading chart...
CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
The Republican candidate6%8%8%
The Democratic candidate71%80%85%
Someone else13%7%4%
Don't know/No opinion10%6%2%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
Loading chart...
CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
The Republican candidate72%87%92%
The Democratic candidate13%8%5%
Someone else4%0%1%
Don't know/No opinion11%5%3%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
Loading chart...
CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
The Republican candidate58%17%37%
The Democratic candidate28%68%46%
Someone else6%5%5%
Don't know/No opinion7%10%12%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
Loading chart...
CategoryMaleFemale
The Republican candidate52%42%
The Democratic candidate35%42%
Someone else7%5%
Don't know/No opinion6%12%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
Loading chart...
CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
The Republican candidate36%48%63%
The Democratic candidate52%35%23%
Someone else5%6%6%
Don't know/No opinion8%10%8%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
Loading chart...
Category18-2930-4445-6465+
The Republican candidate34%42%50%57%
The Democratic candidate50%43%32%35%
Someone else7%6%7%2%
Don't know/No opinion9%9%11%6%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
Loading chart...
CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
The Republican candidate54%47%47%47%50%37%
The Democratic candidate38%36%34%38%38%52%
Someone else0%6%7%6%6%4%
Don't know/No opinion8%11%13%9%5%7%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
Loading chart...
CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
The Republican candidate60%47%38%16%
The Democratic candidate31%34%49%60%
Someone else3%8%6%9%
Don't know/No opinion6%11%7%14%
  • Table |
  • Share
  • |
    More

    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
Loading chart...
CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
The Republican candidate60%52%17%35%
The Democratic candidate29%34%64%36%
Someone else4%5%8%8%
Don't know/No opinion7%8%11%22%

Latest Poll News

June 2023 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll

The June 2023 University of Texas / Texas Politics Project poll included extensive questioning about the performance of state leaders during the 2023 Legislative session.
State on the Wrong Track

For only the second time in UT polling, but the second time in less than a year, a majority of Texas voters say that the state is on the wrong track.
Inflation on Texans' minds

More than half of Texans think the state is on the wrong track, while border security and immigration continue to loom large, especially among Texas Republicans.
June 2021 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll

The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll has been released in full. Check out the latest poll page to explore results related to the 87th legislative session, the coronavirus pandemic, assessments of state leaders, and more.
March 2021 Texas Politics Project/UT Energy Institute Poll

The Texas Politics Project just released the results of a March poll developed in conjunction with a team of researchers at the UT Energy Institute that asked dozens of questions about Texans’ experience during the winter storm, their attitudes toward causes and consequences of the storm, their views of, and expectations about, possible policy responses, and their views of how a wide range of actors from their neighbors and utility providers to state political leaders, regulatory bodies, and corporate actors. 

Related Results