U.S. Senate Trial Ballot, Cruz vs. Allred (February 2024)

U.S. Senate Trial Ballot, Cruz vs. Allred (February 2024)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
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categoryTotal
Ted Cruz46%
Colin Allred32%
Someone else9%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Ted Cruz13%28%82%
Colin Allred64%25%4%
Someone else11%16%6%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion12%31%8%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Ted Cruz8%22%10%
Colin Allred68%51%69%
Someone else12%6%13%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion12%21%8%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Ted Cruz84%70%87%
Colin Allred2%7%4%
Someone else10%11%3%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion5%13%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Ted Cruz10%29%80%
Colin Allred66%33%8%
Someone else13%14%4%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion11%24%8%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Ted Cruz5%15%9%
Colin Allred60%65%71%
Someone else21%9%11%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion14%11%9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Ted Cruz70%81%86%
Colin Allred17%6%4%
Someone else5%4%4%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion9%10%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Ted Cruz58%19%34%
Colin Allred26%48%36%
Someone else6%12%14%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion10%20%16%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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CategoryMaleFemale
Ted Cruz52%41%
Colin Allred31%33%
Someone else7%11%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion10%15%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Ted Cruz38%46%61%
Colin Allred36%34%19%
Someone else12%8%8%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion14%12%12%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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Category18-2930-4445-6465+
Ted Cruz41%35%46%59%
Colin Allred25%33%35%32%
Someone else13%15%7%4%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion21%18%12%4%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Ted Cruz52%50%48%39%44%42%
Colin Allred13%24%34%32%36%44%
Someone else6%12%5%13%7%10%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion28%14%13%16%13%4%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Ted Cruz58%43%34%21%
Colin Allred20%35%43%57%
Someone else8%8%14%9%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion13%14%10%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Colin Allred”] Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
Ted Cruz58%47%21%38%
Colin Allred17%35%61%18%
Someone else10%7%9%16%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion15%11%9%28%

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