U.S. Senate Trial Ballot (June 2018)

U.S. Senate Trial Ballot (June 2018)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
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categoryTotal
Ted Cruz41%
Beto O'Rourke36%
Neal Dikeman2%
Someone else3%
No opinion17%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents . Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Ted Cruz5%25%79%
Beto O'Rourke73%29%5%
Neal Dikeman2%6%2%
Someone else3%7%2%
No opinion15%34%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Ted Cruz4%8%5%
Beto O'Rourke78%62%77%
Neal Dikeman6%2%1%
Someone else2%3%4%
No opinion11%25%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Ted Cruz85%65%84%
Beto O'Rourke2%9%4%
Neal Dikeman1%3%1%
Someone else0%4%1%
No opinion12%19%9%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Ted Cruz4%21%76%
Beto O'Rourke82%35%7%
Neal Dikeman2%3%2%
Someone else3%5%2%
No opinion9%36%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Ted Cruz3%2%7%
Beto O'Rourke81%82%83%
Neal Dikeman3%3%0%
Someone else0%4%4%
No opinion12%10%5%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Ted Cruz66%72%86%
Beto O'Rourke13%6%4%
Neal Dikeman3%3%0%
Someone else0%2%3%
No opinion18%16%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Ted Cruz5%75%88%
Beto O'Rourke78%9%3%
Neal Dikeman2%3%5%
Someone else3%2%0%
No opinion12%11%4%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Ted Cruz51%11%32%
Beto O'Rourke34%49%36%
Neal Dikeman3%1%2%
Someone else1%9%4%
No opinion11%31%26%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Ted Cruz49%34%
Beto O'Rourke34%39%
Neal Dikeman4%1%
Someone else3%3%
No opinion11%23%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Community is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Ted Cruz26%43%59%
Beto O'Rourke45%37%22%
Neal Dikeman3%2%1%
Someone else6%2%2%
No opinion20%16%16%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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category18-2930-4445-6465+
Ted Cruz31%32%42%55%
Beto O'Rourke39%36%37%34%
Neal Dikeman2%5%1%2%
Someone else5%3%3%1%
No opinion24%24%16%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Ted Cruz25%41%47%39%44%30%
Beto O'Rourke6%29%38%41%38%57%
Neal Dikeman7%1%1%1%4%3%
Someone else6%6%3%1%2%0%
No opinion57%23%11%18%12%10%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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categoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Ted Cruz55%36%30%19%
Beto O'Rourke24%37%42%64%
Neal Dikeman1%3%5%3%
Someone else4%3%4%1%
No opinion17%21%20%12%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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categoryThe Bible is the word of God, to be taken literallyThe Bible is the word of God, not to be taken literallyThe Bible is a book written by men
Ted Cruz53%48%16%
Beto O'Rourke19%33%67%
Neal Dikeman2%2%3%
Someone else5%2%1%
No opinion21%14%12%

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