U.S. Senate Trial Ballot (October 2018)
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
category | Total |
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Ted Cruz | 51% |
Beto O'Rourke | 45% |
Neal Dikeman | 2% |
Someone else | 2% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below. Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents . Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
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Ted Cruz | 3% | 39% | 93% |
Beto O'Rourke | 94% | 51% | 5% |
Neal Dikeman | 1% | 5% | 1% |
Someone else | 2% | 5% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
category | Lean Democrat | Not very strong Democrat | Strong Democrat |
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Ted Cruz | 1% | 5% | 4% |
Beto O'Rourke | 98% | 85% | 96% |
Neal Dikeman | 0% | 2% | 1% |
Someone else | 1% | 8% | 0% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
category | Lean Republican | Not very strong Republican | Strong Republican |
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Ted Cruz | 92% | 80% | 96% |
Beto O'Rourke | 4% | 18% | 2% |
Neal Dikeman | 3% | 2% | 0% |
Someone else | 1% | 0% | 2% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
category | Liberals | Moderates | Conservatives |
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Ted Cruz | 5% | 25% | 90% |
Beto O'Rourke | 92% | 69% | 8% |
Neal Dikeman | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Someone else | 2% | 3% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
category | Leaning liberal | Somewhat liberal | Extremely liberal |
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Ted Cruz | 7% | 2% | 5% |
Beto O'Rourke | 91% | 98% | 89% |
Neal Dikeman | 1% | 0% | 3% |
Someone else | 1% | 0% | 3% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
category | Leaning conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
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Ted Cruz | 67% | 88% | 98% |
Beto O'Rourke | 27% | 10% | 1% |
Neal Dikeman | 3% | 2% | 0% |
Someone else | 3% | 0% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
category | Democrat | Republican | Tea Party |
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Ted Cruz | 1% | 89% | 89% |
Beto O'Rourke | 95% | 8% | 8% |
Neal Dikeman | 1% | 1% | 2% |
Someone else | 3% | 2% | 0% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
Race is calculated according to the race variable.
category | White | Black | Hispanic |
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Ted Cruz | 63% | 14% | 33% |
Beto O'Rourke | 34% | 83% | 60% |
Neal Dikeman | 1% | 0% | 2% |
Someone else | 1% | 3% | 5% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
category | Male | Female |
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Ted Cruz | 56% | 47% |
Beto O'Rourke | 42% | 49% |
Neal Dikeman | 1% | 2% |
Someone else | 1% | 3% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
Community is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
category | Urban | Suburban | Rural |
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Ted Cruz | 31% | 55% | 70% |
Beto O'Rourke | 64% | 43% | 26% |
Neal Dikeman | 3% | 1% | 1% |
Someone else | 3% | 1% | 3% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
category | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | 65+ |
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Ted Cruz | 23% | 41% | 58% | 65% |
Beto O'Rourke | 71% | 55% | 38% | 35% |
Neal Dikeman | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
Someone else | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
category | No high school | High school graduate | Some college | 2-year | 4-year | Post-grad |
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Ted Cruz | 30% | 52% | 51% | 50% | 57% | 45% |
Beto O'Rourke | 70% | 44% | 44% | 49% | 40% | 51% |
Neal Dikeman | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
Someone else | 0% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below. Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
category | Extremely important | Somewhat important | Not very important | Not at all important |
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Ted Cruz | 69% | 47% | 34% | 28% |
Beto O'Rourke | 28% | 49% | 63% | 66% |
Neal Dikeman | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
Someone else | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below. Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
category | The Bible is the word of God, to be taken literally | The Bible is the word of God, not to be taken literally | The Bible is a book written by men |
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Ted Cruz | 73% | 57% | 21% |
Beto O'Rourke | 22% | 41% | 76% |
Neal Dikeman | 2% | 1% | 1% |
Someone else | 3% | 0% | 2% |