Vote Certainty Among Joe Biden Supporters (September 2019)

Vote Certainty Among Joe Biden Supporters (September 2019)

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    Respondents were asked, "How likely are you to change your mind before the primary election?"
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categoryTotal
Very likely8%
Somewhat likely14%
Not very likely40%
Not at all likely32%
Don't know/No opinion5%
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    Respondents were asked, "How likely are you to change your mind before the primary election?"
    Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents . Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependent
Very likely8%16%
Somewhat likely16%0%
Not very likely41%31%
Not at all likely31%36%
Don't know/No opinion4%17%
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    Respondents were asked, "How likely are you to change your mind before the primary election?"
    Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Very likely17%11%4%
Somewhat likely31%24%7%
Not very likely35%33%48%
Not at all likely15%25%38%
Don't know/No opinion2%7%3%
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    Respondents were asked, "How likely are you to change your mind before the primary election?"
    Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Very likely5%10%8%
Somewhat likely7%21%0%
Not very likely50%30%55%
Not at all likely34%33%28%
Don't know/No opinion4%6%8%
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    Respondents were asked, "How likely are you to change your mind before the primary election?"
    The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Very likely9%3%0%
Somewhat likely12%6%0%
Not very likely64%48%22%
Not at all likely11%43%67%
Don't know/No opinion5%0%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "How likely are you to change your mind before the primary election?"
    Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Very likely10%8%8%
Somewhat likely15%7%25%
Not very likely41%38%42%
Not at all likely23%46%21%
Don't know/No opinion11%1%3%
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    Respondents were asked, "How likely are you to change your mind before the primary election?"
    Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Very likely12%6%
Somewhat likely11%17%
Not very likely45%36%
Not at all likely28%35%
Don't know/No opinion3%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "How likely are you to change your mind before the primary election?"
    Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Very likely0%10%2%0%17%10%
Somewhat likely56%10%14%20%7%26%
Not very likely0%43%50%9%48%22%
Not at all likely33%31%31%72%28%26%
Don't know/No opinion12%6%3%0%0%15%
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    Respondents were asked, "How likely are you to change your mind before the primary election?"
    Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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category18-2930-4445-6465+
Very likely0%17%7%9%
Somewhat likely0%19%19%10%
Not very likely87%37%35%33%
Not at all likely13%27%31%42%
Don't know/No opinion0%0%7%6%

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