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After a brief post-election honeymoon in Texas, President Donald J. Trump’s job approval ratings have fallen back to levels found during his first term in office, as Texans’ widespread economic concerns persist amidst the President’s ongoing trade war, according to a new University of Texas / Texas Politics project Poll. With 47% of Texas voters approving of the job he is doing as President and 46% disapproving, Trump remains in net-positive territory in Texas, though only barely.

Continued economic uncertainty and shifts in the terrain of immigration are likely affecting both President Trump’s approval rating and many Texas voters’ views of state priorities as the Texas Legislature enters the final weeks of their 140-day session.

Trump’s approval ratings declined by 5 points among Texas voters, while his disapproval rates increased by 8 points since the February UT/TxPP poll, when 52% approved of his early job performance while only 38% disapproved. Given that February was only the second time that a majority of Texas voters approved of Trump’s overall job performance in fourteen Texas Politics Project polls conducted over his last term and the beginning of his current term in January, the April results may represent a return to the norm after an election bounce.

Despite the relatively quick return to form, Trump remains a dominant force in Republican political circles, with 89% of Republican voters approving of the job he’s doing, including a majority, 57%, who approve strongly.

However, Trump is underwater in voters’ assessments of the issue they say is the most important facing the country, and the number one issue determining their vote in the 2024 election, his handling of the economy. More Texas voters disapprove of his handling of the economy (46%) than approve (40%), a stark reversal of opinions compared with his first term. In October 2020, weeks before he lost his bid for reelection to Joe Biden, 52% of Texas voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy while 42% disapproved – making the April 2025 assessment a 16-point swing in Trump’s disfavor on a critical issue to Texas voters.

Economic concerns loom large in voters’ views of the top priorities for the Texas legislature. More than 70% of Texas voters judged the following policy goals as “extremely” or “very important” for the Texas Legislature to accomplish during the current legislative session:

• Improve the reliability of the state’s energy grid – 82% (53% extremely, 29% very)

• Lower the cost of everyday goods and services – 77% (50% extremely, 27% very) 

• Reduce property taxes – 75% (48% extremely, 27% very)

• Improve the reliability of the state’s water supply – 79% (47% extremely,  32% very) 

• Increase access to healthcare – 73% (46% extremely, 27% very)

• Lower the cost of housing - 72% (44% extremely, 28% very)

Allowing that Texans’ comparatively high residential property taxes affect many voters’ household finances and that cost is a dimension of healthcare access, four of the six policy areas deemed most important by Texas voters tap into concerns about prices, with the other two most highly prioritized areas focused on infrastructure (i.e. electricity and water) — an issue that has loomed large in Texas since the widespread power outages triggered by Winter Storm Uri in 2021 and the sustained discussions about the reliability and availability of the state’s water supply.

Negative views of the macro economy likely contribute to poor reviews of President Trump’s handling of the issue. A significant share of Texans feel that their economic situation is worse off compared to a year ago, with more than a third (37%) saying that they are either "somewhat worse off" (24%) or "a lot worse off" (13%). Only 20% feel that they are doing better, with only 5% saying that they are "a lot better off" and 15% feeling that they are "somewhat better off." The plurality, 41%, reported their situation as “about the same.”

Assessments of the national economy compared to a year ago are comparably negative, with 20% saying the national economy is “somewhat worse off" and another 26% saying it’s “a lot worse off.” Only 9% feel that the national economy is doing "a lot better" with another 22% feeling that the national economy is performing "somewhat better.”

In the first UT/TxPP Poll assessing Trump’s performance on key issues during his second term, the president finds his ratings in Texas underwater in all areas related to economic matters: 40% approve while 46% disapprove of his handling of the economy. On the more specific subject of his handling of inflation and prices, slightly more than a third approve (35%) while nearly half disapprove (49%). Asked about his handling of “trade negotiations,” 41% approved and 46% disapproved.

Though the President remains underwater among all Texas voters, Republicans remain supportive of Trump’s handling of economic issues, with Democrats and independents giving the President low marks. Among Texas GOP voters, 76% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy (only 11% disapprove), 67% approve of his handling of inflation and prices (16% disapprove), and 75% approve of his handling of trade negotiations (11% disapprove).

Texans continue to hold negative expectations about the short-term impact of tariffs, with slightly more mixed views of their longer term effects on the U.S. economy. Trump’s overall ratings on his handling of trade negotiations reflect some nuanced, some mixed, and some decidedly negative expectations about the impact of his signature trade policy. 

A large majority of Texas voters, 70%, think that increasing U.S. tariffs will result in higher prices, while 8% think they will lower prices, 10% think they will have no impact, and 12% don’t have an opinion. The plurality, 46%, say that increased import duties will hurt the U.S. economy in the long run, while 39% say they will help the economy.

The Trump administration’s aggressive if erratic tariff policies have gained significant public attention. Virtually all participants in the poll reported hearing “a lot” (70%) or “some” (23%) about increased U.S. tariffs on imported goods from other other countries — more than said the same about any of the other issues tested for attention.

Asked about the impact of increased tariffs on their family’s economic situation, a majority, 53%, say that tariffs will hurt their household, while 22% say it will help, and 12% expect no impact (13% expressed no opinion).

The poll uncovered significant partisan differences in Texans’ views about the impact of tariffs, with Republicans having significantly more positive expectations than Democrats and independents.

• Short-term impact: Nearly all Democrats (93%), three-quarters of independents (75%), and half of Republicans (50%) expect tariffs to result in higher prices.

• Long-term impact: 7% of Democrats, 24% of independents, and a significantly higher 72% of Republicans think that increased tariffs will help the U.S. economy in the long run.

• Household impact: 85% of Democrats, along with 62% of independents, expect increased tariffs to hurt their family’s economic situation, while the plurality of Republicans, 40%, expect tariffs to help their households economically, with 24% expecting them to hurt and another 20% expecting no impact.

Concerns about prices and the economy now compete with immigration and the border for Texas voters’ attention. While the single-minded focus on the border and immigration that characterized Republican attitudes for at least the past decade now competes with Texans’ economic concerns, GOP voters in Texas remain broadly approving of Trump’s attention to the issue and his performance so far.

Despite the seemingly increasing durability of voters’ economic concerns, immigration and the border remain key issues in Texas, though their salience showed a decline in the most recent poll. Among all voters, 21% chose immigration or border security as the most important problem facing the state, the same share as chose the economy or inflation/prices. 

The salience of immigration and the border among Trump’s partisan base continues to decline noticeably as migrant traffic at the U.S.-Mexico border reaches a low ebb and their attention is diverted to Trump’s trade policies and the performance of the overall economy. The share of Republicans who identified immigration or border security as the most important problem facing Texas declined for the sixth poll in a row, falling from 68% in February 2024 to 35% in April — an astonishing 33-point decline. During the same period, the share of Republicans citing prices or the economy as the state’s most pressing problem increased from 9% to 23%. (The top choice among Democrats was political corruption/leadership, while inflation or the economy led among independents’ concerns.)

Republicans’ approval of Trump’s handling of immigration and border security were the highest of the dozen issues tested in the poll: 92% approved and only 4% disapproved, fueling a 52% approval rate among all voters, with 38% disapproving. Approval among independents was less widespread, but still in net-positive territory: 41% approved and 34% disapproved, with the remainder either neutral or holding no opinion. Nearly four out of five Democrats disapproved (79%) with only 13% approving of Trump’s performance on his signature campaign issue.

Even as the economy diverts attention from immigration-related issues, Texas voters, especially Republicans, continue to support tougher immigration policies in the state, including state cooperation with the federal government on immigration policy, and approve of Trump’s second effort to reshape the United State’s orientation toward immigration and its approach to immigration enforcement.

• The plurality of Texas voters, 47%, support stricter state-level immigration policies, while 25% want those policies made less strict, and 19% prefer they be left alone. More than three-quarters of Republican voters, 77%, want stricter immigration policies, with another 16% favoring leaving them as they are now. Among independents, 39% want stricter policies, 24% want them less strict, and 19% favor the status quo. Half of Democrats (50%) want less strict policies, 23% favor the status quo, while 18% want stricter immigration policies at the state level.

• A majority of Texas voters, 54%, say it is either extremely (35%) or very (19%) important for the legislature to direct state agencies and local law enforcement to cooperate with the federal government in enforcing federal immigration policies, including 83% of Republicans and 45% of independents. A predictably smaller share of Democrats, 28%, fell into the same categories, while 44% of Democrats say cooperation with the federal government on immigration enforcement is either not very important (18%) or not important at all (26%).

• Among Texas Republicans, 92% say they approve of the job Donald Trump is doing on immigration and border security, including 75% who approve strongly (only 4% registered disapproval). This represented his highest issue area job approval rating among Republicans, and also his highest mark in the time series, with the same question having been asked in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Republican approval on the issue, as well as net approval, were all time highs in the time series.

This noticeable shift in the context surrounding voters’ immigration attitudes also shows up in the context of state spending. The share of Texas voters who say the state spends “too little” on border security declined from 45% in December 2024 UT/TxPP polling (after Trump’s election but before his inauguration) to 28% in April polling; the share saying the state spends “about the right amount” Increased from 29% to 33% in the same period; while those saying that the state spends “too much” increased from 17% to 28%.

A big contributor to the shift in the seeming demand for state level border security spending came from movement in Republican attitudes: 40% said the state is spending “too little” on border security in April, a more than 20-point drop from the 63% who said the same in December. Most of that shift appears to have gone to those who think the state is spending “about the right amount” on the border, which increased from 26% to 45% over the same period. The current budget bills for 2026-2027 in both legislative chambers hold border security spending at approximately $6.5 billion, which is commensurate with spending for the current biennium.

Legislative issues

While only 8% of Texas voters reported following the Texas legislature extremely closely during the current session as of April (commensurate with past, regular sessions), their views of the issues contending for attention in the legislature conveyed significant differences in policy positions and priorities. As the legislature enters its final few weeks, the various priorities put forward by state leadership and/or highlighted by voters, and in turn, tested in the poll, have met with different levels of success. Governor Abbott has already signed legislation on one of the most controversial subjects of the 89th Legislature, publicly funded education savings accounts (ESAs), into law. But most bills, even many prioritized by leadership, are still working their way through a legislative process short on time, which makes their passage directly subject to a system more or less designed to make it hard to create new laws.

Education, public and otherwise

The Gordian knot tying together efforts to increase funding for public education, raise pay for (at least some) teachers, and to use state funds to subsidize private school education caused a meltdown in the 2023 session that subsequently defined the 2024 GOP primaries – and set the stage for a central debate of the current session. Historic support for some kind of voucher-like program among key GOP interest groups and funders both in Texas and nationally, along with the shock to the public education system created by pandemic era closures and policy fights, ensured the place of “school choice” on the legislative agenda. Gov. Abbott’s triumphant signing celebration of the long-promised ESA bill at the Governor’s mansion on May 3 underlined his political investment in the issue, and its visibility among the grass-tops of the GOP.

The April poll found some public support for using public money for parents’ private school expenses, but also again found low interest in the issue, which has been evident in past polling.

Nearly half of Texas voters, 48%, either strongly (23%) or somewhat (25%) support “establishing an educational savings account (ESA), voucher, or other “school choice” program,” with 35% either “strongly” (25%) or “somewhat opposed” (10%). At the same time, only 36% of voters rated this either an “extremely important” (17%) or “somewhat important” priority (19%) for the Legislature this session.

Both chambers of the legislature have passed bills intended to increase funding for public schools, including pay increases for teachers, though the House and Senate bills differ in significant ways. Almost two-thirds of Texas voters (65%) say it is “extremely” (38%) or “very important” (27%) for the Legislature to increase pay for public school teachers, while only 11% say it’s “not very important” (6%) or “not at all important” (5%). A large majority of Democrats (82%) judge teacher pay increases “extremely” (57%) or “very important” (23%), along with a smaller majority of Republicans (56% – 24% extremely; 32% very).

A smaller majority of voters, 60%, said it was “extremely” (36%) or “very important” (24%) to increase funding for the public education system, including 84% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans. (Nearly a third of Republicans, 31%, chose the mid-point response “somewhat important”).

In a separate item inviting a global assessment of state spending on public education, about half of Texas voters (51%) said the state spends “too little” on public education, while 23% said that the state was spending “about the right amount” and 11% said the state was spending “too much.”  Equal shares of Republicans, 35%, said the state is spending “too little” or “about the right amount, while 16% said the state is spending “too much.” A much larger share of Democrats, 72%, said the state spends “too little” on public education, with 12% saying the state spends “about the right amount,” and only 5% saying the state spends “too much.”

A parallel question about state spending for higher education found 37% saying the state spends “too little” on higher education, with 29% saying the state spends “about the right amount,” and 15% saying the state is spending “too much.” About equal shares of Republicans said the state spends “too much” or is spending “about the right amount” (30% and 31%, respectively), while about 1 in 5 (22%) said the state spends “too little.” 

The poll also checked in on Texas voters' views of other K-12  proposals currently at different stages of the process as the clock runs down on the regular legislative session:

• Two thirds of Texas voters (66%) support banning cell phones in K-12 during school hours, while a quarter (25%) oppose such a ban. Majorities of both parties support getting phones out of classrooms, though Republicans are more likely than Democrats to support the prohibition (78% compared to 54%).

• Texans are closely divided on requiring public schools in Texas to display the Ten Commandments in every classroom: 46% support such a requirement, while 39% oppose it. Among Republicans, 69% express support while 15% are in opposition. Democratic views present almost a mirror image, with 65% opposed and 25% expressing support. About a third of independents (34%) express support, just less than half (49%) are opposed.

• The plurality of Texas voters, 48%, support prohibiting diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs in K-12 schools in Texas, while 39% oppose a prohibition. More than three quarters of Republicans (77%) support prohibiting DEI in K-12 education, while more than two-thirds of Democrats oppose a DEI ban.

While the policy couplet of public education financing and public spending for private school enrollment have roiled the legislature for two sessions, with public school spending as yet unresolved between the two chambers, only 8% of Texas voters cited public education in responses to an open-ended item asking Texans what they thought the legislature's highest priority should be during the session. About 6% mentioned some aspect of ESAs/vouchers/school choice – evenly divided between those who thought the most important priority should be creating such a program, and those who thought the top priority should be to prevent such a program.

While the school choice program now implemented into law may not have been top of mind for most voters, they did express different views when asked about which groups of children the legislation should prioritize when considering access to subsidized private education. 

Given a list of seven groups of children that were discussed during debates over the design of the legislation, Texas voters assigned the highest importance to children with special education needs (57% said it was “very important” that the legislation prioritize their access) and children from low income households (55% very important). Next in rank order by the share of Texans saying it was “very important” to prioritize access for each group, children attending low performing schools (49%) and children attending schools their parents think are unsafe (44%). 

Support was significantly lower for children in less obviously challenged circumstances, with less than a third of voters saying it is very important for the legislation to prioritize access for children from middle-income households (31%), those being homeschooled (23%), or those from high-income households (10%). Children from high-income households were the only included group that a majority said were either “not very important” (26%) or “not important” (35%) to prioritize.

The poll also asked voters about what impact an unspecified ESA program would have on different K-12 institutions. Private schools were viewed as most likely to benefit, with 30% expecting school choice to produce a “large positive impact” on “religious private schools” along with another 28% who expect a small positive impact. Additionally, 26% expect a large positive impact and 30% a small positive impact for “secular (non-religious) private schools” with the passage of an ESA program. Very few expect the ESA program to have a negative impact on either type of private schools (7% for religious private schools, 9% for secular ones). 

The plurality, 44%, expect public schools to be positively impacted by the passage of the ESA bill, but the share expecting a negative impact on public schools, 35%, was the largest share of negative expectations among the institutions tested. Among Republican voters, 52% expected a positive impact on public schools, while 26% expected a negative impact. Democrats were more likely to expect a negative impact (48%) than a positive one (36%).

Property taxes

With the House and Senate reportedly having reached agreement on the specifics of this session’s edition of the perennial efforts to cut property tax bills, reducing property taxes remained a priority for Texas voters in April. Overall, 48% said it was “extremely important” for the legislature to accomplish some kind of property tax reduction along with another 27% who said this was “very important” — trailing only improving the reliability of the state’s energy grid (53% extremely / 29% very) and lowering the cost of everyday goods and services (50% extremely / 27% very) in terms of importance assigned by voters. Property tax reduction attracted the largest share of Republicans rating it a priority of the legislature (61% extremely / 26% very), while the issue fell more in the middle of the pack among independent (44% extremely / 29% very) and Democratic voters (36% extremely / 29% very).

But the challenge during the last few sessions hasn’t been so much about whether to reduce property taxes, but how to do so. When the UT/TxPP poll asked voters to assess who should benefit with whatever reductions are ultimately passed, the majority, 53%, said that those cuts should primarily benefit homeowners, while 36% said that they should be balanced between homeowners and businesses, with only 3% saying the reductions should primarily benefit business. These results were consistent regardless of partisanship.

THC

With the rise of a semi-legal cannabis (or cannabis adjacent) industry in Texas in the wake of the legislature’s efforts to legalize hemp in order to make Texas’ laws compliant with federal guidelines, the Legislature has put cracking down on this industry on the legislative agenda. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick drew attention to the issue by threatening a special session if the house fails to significantly crack down on the legality of THC in Texas. Accordingly, the Senate passed a strict bill that was softened in the House State affairs committee, but has yet to reach the House floor for debate.

Overall, only 15% of Texas voters said that marijuana possession should never be legal under any circumstance in Texas, including 21% of Republicans. A majority, 51% said that either small amounts (35%) or any amount (16%) of marijuana should be legal for recreational purposes, while 33% said that marijuana possession should only be legal for medicinal purposes.

While 65% of Democrats thought that small (42%) or any amount of marijuana (23%) should be legal for recreational purposes, Republicans were more clearly divided, with the aforementioned 21% favoring a complete prohibition (in line with past results), 39% favoring the legalization of marijuana solely for medicinal purposes, and 40% allowing for recreational usage.

Asked about the state’s laws, the plurality of Texas voters, 43%, said the state should loosen its marijuana laws, while 30% said that state laws should be made more strict, and 18% preferred the laws be left unchanged. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats, 61%, said that they wanted the laws to be made less strict, while the plurality of Republicans, 40%, said the state’s laws should be made stricter, compared to 32% who want them made less strict, and 23% wanting to maintain the status quo.

This slight preference among Republicans for stricter marijuana laws is reflected in their support for a policy proposal that would outlaw “the production and sale of cannabis-derived products in Texas, including consumable, hemp-based products.” Here, the poll found a majority, 50%, of Texas voters opposed, compared to 34% who support a broad prohibition. Among Republicans, responses were largely split, with 46% favoring a broader prohibition compared to 42% who were opposed. Among Democrats, 63% were opposed (23% support) while among independents 50% were opposed (27% support).

Bail Restrictions

Overall, slightly more than a third of Texans, 35%, say it is “extremely important” for the legislature to “limit the ability of judges to release people accused of serious crimes on bail” this session, with another 24% saying that this is “very important.”

The Governor made this issue an emergency item at the start of the session and the Lieutenant Governor has threatened to force a special session if the Texas House doesn’t pass a “bail reform” bill to the liking of both leaders (which was paired with his similar threat over the passage of restrictions on THC products). This urgency is reflected in the data, where the poll found 51% of Republicans saying that limiting the ability of judges to release people accused of serious crimes on bond should be an “extremely important” priority for the 89th legislature along with another 25% who said it is “very important.” In terms of overall importance ratings, only reducing property taxes and directing state agencies to cooperate in the Trump administration’s deportation efforts received higher priority from the state’s GOP voters.

Abortion

With the state’s near total prohibition on legal access to abortion facing its second legislative session, a plurality of the state’s voters, 46%, said that they want the state’s abortion laws made less strict, with 20% wanting the laws left alone, and 26% wanting the legislature to make the state’s laws still more stringent when it comes to abortion access. The consistency of opinion on this issue is one of its persistent features, with pluralities seeking a loosening of the state’s laws in each of 11 surveys conducted since the state’s ban went into effect, prior to which, in February 2019 polling, a plurality said they wanted the laws to be made more strict.

In the context of the current state of public opinion towards abortion access, and public reporting on at least three instances in which Texas women died due to complications from care denied by healthcare providers for fear of running afoul of state law, the poll found more Texas voters expressing support for the legislature “clarifying when doctors in Texas can perform a legal abortion if a woman’s life is at risk” than any of the 12 legislative proposals tested, with support from 76% of Texas voters, including equal share of Democrats (78%) and Republicans (79%).

At the same time, the legislature has also given attention to ways in which the state’s prohibition on abortion might be circumvented, in particular, by paying for a pregnant person’s travel expenses to another state to obtain a legal abortion, or by the sale or acquisition of abortion pills through the mail. Here, the survey found a majority of Texas voters opposed to giving Texans more civil mechanisms to enforce the state’s abortion laws in the wake of the so-called “bounty hunter” provision in the 2021 law. 

Overall, 54% opposed “giving individuals additional rights to sue people or entities that they believe helped someone obtain abortion pills in violation of state law,” while 58% opposed “giving individuals additional rights to sue people that they believe helped someone travel out of Texas to obtain a legal abortion.” These two proposals received the least support among the 12 tested.

Three quarter of Democrats said they opposed both proposals, while Republicans were split on the enforcement mechanisms. A plurality, 40%, said that they supported giving individuals additional rights to sue those they believe have helped someone obtain abortion pills, but a near equal share, 37%, were opposed. In response to giving individuals more rights to sue those they believe have helped someone travel out of state to obtain a legal abortion, 44% of Republicans expressed opposition, with 34% expressing support. 

Together, these two proposals were the least popular of the 12 tested among Republicans save for legalizing online betting.

Gambling Expansion

With another legislative session promising a renewed attempt at expanded statewide gambling, the Lt. Governor pivoted attention to the state lottery and questions about the role of online brokers, and in turn, confidence in the lottery. 

While the lottery imbroglio shifted the legislative terrain, most voters remained unaware. Overall, only 11% said that they had heard “a lot” about irregularities with the state lottery, less than any of the 10 news stories tested. (By comparison, 41% had heard a lot about the measles outbreak in West Texas; 70% about increased U.S. tariffs). The combination of the low attention paid to the state lottery and the continuity in attitudes towards gambling suggest that the story had a greater impact inside the legislative process than with the public.

Overall, Texas voters remain ambivalent about the state’s gambling laws. Nearly equal shares want those laws to be made more strict (28%), less strict (30%), or left alone (27%) — another 15% have no opinion. Partisanship does little to impact these results, and this split in opinion largely matches results from December of last year. Over a slightly longer time window, the share of Republicans wanting gambling laws to be made more strict has increased by about 10 points, while the share of Democrats (historically more open to legal gaming) wanting the laws loosened has declined by about an equal share — not a good sign for advocates of increased gambling opportunities in the state.

This ambivalence was largely reflected in response to two questions about expanding legal casino gambling and legalizing online betting, which have received uneven support from leadership in the state. The former fairs slightly better than the latter, but both face plurality opposition. Overall, 42% oppose expanding legal casino gambling in the state, with 38% supportive; 45% oppose legalizing online betting, with only 31% supportive.

A majority of Republicans, 51% oppose legalizing online betting (32% expressed support); while the plurality, 46%, oppose expanding legal casino gambling (40% expressed support). Democrats were similarly ambivalent, if negatively disposed to expanded gambling, with 40% opposed to legalizing online betting (33% support) and equal shares, 39%, supportive and opposed to expanding legal casino gambling.

Texas views of Donald Trump

The cooling of attitudes towards Donald Trump since his successful reelection, evident in the decline in Texans’ approval of his overall job performance between the February and April UT/TxPP polls, also showed up in assessments of his performance in major policy areas. When the poll asked Texas voters to rate Trump’s performance in a dozen issue areas, he achieved a net-positive approval rating (that is, the share approving was larger than the share disapproving) in only 4 of the 12. While some of the low ratings are unsurprising (Trump is not making an effort to gain followers with his attention to climate change), as discussed above, his low marks on economic matters show weakness in an area that clearly served as a strength previously.

Trump’s strongest ratings were recorded in areas where he has staked out very clear public positions. His handling of immigration and border security is the only area in which he received the approval of a clear majority of Texas voters (52%), though pluralities approved of the job he is doing in other areas that are aligned with his brand: crime and public safety (47% approve, 37% disapprove); government spending (44% approve, 41% disapprove); and “the federal workforce” (44% approve, 41% disapprove), both of the latter being within the advertised ambit of the Elon Musk-led DOGE efforts. While the margins are not especially impressive they show Trump is meeting the market he has created.

Yet several of the areas in which Trump’s issue ratings are in net-negative territory are either highly salient to voters, including his base (like economic policy), or have intense constituencies whose focused interests are likely to affect their overall views of the president:

• Foreign policy: 41% approve, 45% disapprove

• Trade negotiations: 41% approve, 46% disapprove

• The economy: 40% approve, 46% disapprove

• Taxes: 38% approve, 42% disapprove

• Inflation and prices: 35% approve, 49% disapprove

• Abortion access: 34% approve, 41% disapprove

• Healthcare: 32% approve, 42% disapprove

• Climate change: 31% approve, 41% disapprove

In addition to the poor reviews on the dominant policy question of the moment, the economy, there are other hazards here. Signs of a significant share of doubters on trade, in particular, seems like a potential threat given that Trump seems unlikely to reverse himself completely on tariffs, even in the face of adversity.

In addition to the poor reviews on the dominant policy question of the moment, the economy, there are other hazards here. Signs of a significant share of doubters on trade, in particular, seems like a potential threat given that Trump seems unlikely to reverse himself completely on tariffs, even in the face of adversity.

Any shifts in Trump’s fortunes in Texas are likely to be the result of changes in views of the context or his performance, not in views of him personally. Trump’s personality appears a largely fixed entity in the minds of voters after nearly a decade dominating the American political universe. 

The poll explored a battery of traits regularly tested on presidential candidates in the UT/TxPP poll. The primary finding was that views of Trump’s temperament, leadership, and fitness for office have remained unchanged since polling conducted on the eve of his victory — with the notable exception of a 12 point decline in the share of Hispanics who agree that Trump cares about people like them between October and April.

While views of Trump’s personality may be largely static, his impact on Texas has been anything but. The president has projected a strong presence in Texas politics in recent weeks. On the morning of a historic vote in the Texas House of Representative in mid-April on educational savings accounts, Trump called into a Republican caucus meeting to encourage members to vote for the measure. He subsequently endorsed Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s reelection bid; and last week, he endorsed Speaker Dustin Burrows for reelection to his office and the speakership (an endorsement delivered by Gov. Greg Abbott). 

With that, the April poll sought to assess Texans’ expectations about the impact of Trump’s key policy moves during his first 100 days on the state — in particular, his efforts to reduce the size of the federal workforce, reduce federal spending, deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States, and increase U.S. tariffs on imported goods from other countries.

Overall, responses were mixed. A slight majority, 52%, thought that deporting undocumented immigrants would be good for Texas (34% said it would be bad), while an equal share, 52%, thought increasing U.S. tariffs would be bad for Texas (33% think it will be good). A plurality, 47%, think that reductions in federal spending will benefit the state (32% think these reductions will be bad for Texas), while a plurality, 42%, think that reducing the federal workforce will be bad for Texas (36% think it will be good).

In response to each of the four efforts, at least 61% of Democrats (and as many as 85%, in response to tariffs) say that these efforts will be bad for Texas. Among Republicans, expectations were significantly more positive, with 62% expecting a positive impact on Texas from increased tariffs (22% negative); 69% expect a positive impact from the reduction in the federal workforce (11% say this will be bad for Texas); 78% expect a positive impact on Texas due to a reduction in federal spending (6% say this will be bad for Texas); and 89% expect a positive impact on Texas from the deportation of undocumented immigrants (4% say this will be bad for Texas).

Early Indicators for 2026

While most of the public is not yet thinking about the 2026 election (and won’t be for a while), the inaptly named “quiet phase” of the campaign is already underway. In Texas, this means that the maneuvering (both public and private) has already begun as candidates calibrate their ambitions for next year. 

Most of the 2026 election chatter in Texas revolves around the already heated battle between incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn and his one currently declared challenger and occasional social media sparring partner, Attorney General Ken Paxton. In addition to the usual job approval questions asked about each, the poll also asked for more generic favorability assessments. 

Among Republicans, who both men will be courting from now through the primary (and potential run-off), both are above water, but Senator Cornyn’s relative weakness among his own partisans is what keeps his name and office on the lips of potential challengers. While Cornyn received approving numbers from 44% of Republicans in the April poll, a quarter, 25%, disapproved of the job he was doing as the state’s Senator. For Paxton, the numbers were better, with 60% approving and 13% disapproving.

The favorability numbers told a similar story, with 46% of Republicans holding a favorable view of Cornyn compared to 59% holding a favorable view of Paxton, and twice as many Republicans, 22%, holding an unfavorable view of Cornyn compared to Paxton (11%). For points of comparison, 89% of Republicans hold a favorable view of Donald Trump, 83% of J.D. Vance, and 80% of Elon Musk.

Job Approvals

• Gov. Greg Abbott: 44% approve; 43% disapprove

• Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: 36% approve; 36% disapprove

• Speaker Dustin Burrows: 20% approve; 26% disapprove

• Attorney General Ken Paxton: 33% approve; 38% disapprove

• Senator John Cornyn: 27% approve; 41% disapprove

• Senator Ted Cruz: 42% approve; 44% disapprove

• U.S. Congress: 29% approve; 46% disapprove

• U.S. Supreme Court: 33% approve; 40% disapprove

• Mike Johnson: 34% approve; 33% disapprove

• John Thune: 21% approve; 27% disapprove

• Hakeem Jeffries: 25% approve; 36% disapprove

• Chuck Schumer: 21% approve; 50% disapprove