The Audience(s) for James Talarico’s Progressive Christianity in the Democratic Primary

State Representative James Talarico’s Christian faith and the studied incorporation of his religious contemplation and theological training into his politics have created a unique space for the Austin area representative, helping to elevate him from one of 150 state representatives to one of the leading contenders for the U.S. Senate. While Talarico’s often energetic presence in the Texas House during the last session, boosted by a savvy social media strategy, certainly suggested that the 36-year old Talarico might be aiming for higher office, his theological musings with media figures like Joe Rogan and, more recently, Ezra Klein, established his progressive theology and his thoughtful enthusiasm for talking about the subject as central components of his political persona.

It’s hard to argue with success, insofar as Talarico has emerged as one of the two candidates vying for the Democratic nomination for the hotly contested U.S. Senate seat in 2026. Talarico’s guest shot with Rogan, much of which focused on discussing Christianity and politics, and Rogan’s approving response (“you need to run for president,” he declared), was the beginning of his journey from longshot to contender. Rogan’s huge audience notwithstanding, part of Talarico’s boost came from the relative novelty of a Democrat so strenuously embracing Christian theology and rhetoric – and discussing it in such length and depth in a public forum.

Yet as Talarico vies with Jasmine Crocket, a very different style of candidate, for the nomination, just how his progressive Christian theology lands with the primary electorate he needs to win over to gain the nomination is an open question. A question not as straightforward as it might seem, given that this element of Talarico’s political pitch is likely to trigger some complex calculations among a Democratic primary electorate desperate to be led out of the desert, and composed of a comparatively secular group of voters. Bluntly put, secular Democrats might well be attracted to Talarico not mainly because of his (or their) faith per se, but because his faith might help them win a statewide general election for the first time in 32 years. (Particularly were he to face a Republican candidate whose most obvious public deployment of Christianity evokes themes of forgiveness and redemption.)

Data from the Texas Politics Project polling archive enable us to explore how the Christian components of Talarico’s faith-based approach to politics from the left might appeal to the voters Talarico needs to secure his party’s nomination. The UT/TXPP survey asks a number of questions about religious identification and practice, with two questions particularly useful here. One asks about the importance that religion plays in that person’s life, and the other asks how frequently they attend church.

Texas voters and religiosity

Taken together, and for the purposes of this analysis, we might say (very roughly) that religious Texans are those who say that religion is either extremely or very important in their life and also say that they attend church at least a few times a month (as opposed to a few times a year or never).

Defined this way, and relying on December 2025 UT/TXPP data, we can say that approximately 41% of the electorate is “religious,” endorsing the importance of religion in their lives while also attending church services at least a few times a month (if not more). This means that 59% of the electorate doesn’t meet this definition.

Not all of these religious Texans are Christians, of course, though most are, according to survey data. The 2023-2024 Pew Research Religious Landscape Study found that 67% of Texas adults identify as Christian, while 6% identified with other religions and 26% were classified as “religiously unaffiliated.” (Among the last group, 4% identified as atheist and 5% as agnostic, with the remainder choosing “nothing in particular.”)

While it may be unsurprising to find that more than two-thirds of Democratic identifiers in Texas (68%) are less or non-religious, roughly a third are (32%). Maybe more surprising, Republicans were split along this definition, with exactly half classified as more and half as less religious. Independent voters in Texas looked more like Democrats, with 65% identified as less religious compared to the 35% who regularly attend church and view religion as important to them personally.

Taken together, we’re left with a more familiar and easily recognizable pattern: among the religious, 57% identify as Republicans, 33% as Democrats, and 10% as independent; while among the non-religious, 47% identify as Democrat, 40% as Republican, and 12% as independent.

Ideology and religiosity

Ideologically, non-religious Democrats were more likely than religious Democrats to identify their political ideology as liberal (75% to 66%). (The reverse is true among Republicans, where we find slightly greater conservative identification amongst the religious than the non-religious). In line with these views, these same non-religious Democrats were more likely than religious Democrats to say that the Democratic party is not liberal enough (45% to 29%).

However, religious Democrats were more likely than non-religious Democrats to hold favorable views of the Democratic Party (44% very favorable compared to 25% very favorable among the non-religious), with no similar divergence in views of the Republican Party between religious and non-religious GOP voters (at least as of December 2025). This might suggest that when Talarico focuses on his religion, he may well find a substantial base of interest in this discussion among stalwart Democrats.

Religion and views of Democratic Senate Candidates

When it comes to the two leading Democratic Senate candidates, however, religious commitments appear to have little to no impact on Democrats’ views of the major candidates. With nearly half of Democratic voters unable to register a view of Talarico as of December, the differences between the religious and non-religious were minimal. Half of religious Democrats (50%) said that they had a favorable view of Talarico, with 45% of non-religious Democrats saying the same (the share holding a “very favorable” view was statistically indistinguishable - 33% among religious Democrats, 32% among non-religious Democrats).

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Support for Talarico’s chief rival, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, while more well-known among Democrats (roughly a quarter were unable to register an opinion of her as of December), is even more indistinguishable along these lines: 70% of non-religious Democrats hold a favorable view of Crockett (49% very favorable), while 71% of religious Democrats hold the same favorable views (51% very favorable).

Even controlling for the difference in familiarity that Democrats express with each of the candidates, in neither case does religiosity seem to be a major determinant of Democrats’ views of either candidate. While this could change as Talarico becomes more well known among Democratic voters, currently 94% of religious Democrats with a view of Talarico view him favorably, indistinguishable among the 93% of religious Democrats who have a view of Crockett. Among the non-religious (majority) of Democrats who hold views of the candidates, 88% view Talarico positively, 93% hold a similar view of Crockett.

So while Talarico’s approach to politics has certainly been received as somewhat novel  (a debatable point, as Colin Allred testily pointed out recently), it’s not clear from the data that his faith, and willingness to speak about it earns him a direct advantage, at least in the only contest that matters right now, the upcoming March 3rd Primary.

There may be something of an indirect advantage in the role his religious identification plays in his image among the primary electorate if it adds to the impression that his Christianity adds to his mainstream appeal in Texas, and thus to his electability in the general election. Which candidate is best suited to attract crossover voters in the fall election is a key matter of debate in the Senate race. Even allowing for the expected national Democratic surge in the 2026 election, Democrats will need to augment their base electorate to overcome Republicans’ baseline electoral advantage in Texas. That electorate is more religious than the Democratic subset focused on here, but the role Talarico’s version of Christian piety might play in that election will also be shaped by the candidate that emerges from the GOP race, the outcome of which, at this moment, seems more dependent on how a decidedly more secular form of worship plays out in the Republican primary.