James Henson and Joshua Blank look at Texas public opinion (and vibes) to assess the possible impact of the 2026 National Convention in Dallas on elections in Texas.
With new polling data from the August poll in hand, James Henson and Joshua Blank talk over what the trial ballots and other election-related items can and can't tell us about the state of Texas races as summer winds down.
The August 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds 42% of Texas voters preferring Democrat James Talarico and 39% planning to vote for Republican Ken Paxton in the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas. Gov. Greg Abbott led Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 45%-40%, as Texans continue to voice reservations about data centers and express intense concern about prices.
Respondents were asked, "If the 2026 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were the Republican Ken Paxton, the Democrat James Talarico, and the Libertarian Ted Brown, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
