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June Poll Finds a Competitive U.S. Senate race in Texas amid continuing economic concerns, data center backlash

| By: James Henson, Joshua Blank

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The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds a neck and neck contest in the U.S. Senate race between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and State Representative James Talarico, with Paxton the choice of 43% of Texas voters and Talarico preferred by a statistically indistinguishable 42%. Republicans hold larger single-digit leads in the other major races for statewide offices: Gov. Greg Abbott led Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa by a 7-point margin, 47% to 40%.

The poll was conducted among 1200 self-reported registered voters June 5-12, 2026, with a margin of error of +/- 2.83% (3.47% adjusted for weighting). Data was collected by YouGov via the internet. The June poll is the 74th in a series of surveys by the Texas Politics Project initiated in 2008.

As the construction of data centers fueled by the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) draws increasing attention from Texas and state policymakers, including a high visibility directive from Gov. Abbott earlier this month, 29% of Texas voters said that they supported “the construction of a data center” in their community, while 56% were opposed, including 42% “strongly opposed.” Sixteen percent held no opinion. A clear majority of Democrats, 71%, were opposed to local data center construction, with 15% supportive and 15% holding no opinion. Independents were only slightly more favorably inclined: 17% expressed support, while 62% were opposed, with a larger share, 21%, holding no opinion. Attitudes among Republicans were divided nearly evenly: 42% said that they supported the construction of a data center in their community, while 44% were opposed, with 15% expressing no opinion.

Data center opposition was stronger in rural and suburban areas where current and planned data center construction is more prevalent. Among rural Texans, 22% were supportive while 62% expressed opposition, with half (50%) “strongly” opposed. In the suburbs, 25% of Texans said that they supported the construction of a data center in their community, while 60% were opposed. In urban areas, 36% were supportive and 45% were opposed, with 18% holding no opinion.

Attention to data center construction and their impact on local residents rises amidst persistent negative reviews of the economy and ongoing concerns about prices and the everyday costs of living, views evident in several consecutive Texas Politics Project polls. More than half of Texas voters, 54%, said the national economy is worse off compared to a year ago, while 26% said it was performing better and 18% found it to be performing “about the same.” Asked to compare their personal economic situation to one year prior, 22% said they were doing better, 36% reported being “about the same,” and 39% reported being worse off.

Table of Contents

2026 election estimates

With the conclusion of a primary season extended by high visibility runoffs in the GOP Senate nomination race as well as for other statewide offices, the June Texas Politics Project Poll takes an early sounding of the fall general election. As widely anticipated, Texas voters are closely divided in the U.S. Senate contest, while Republican nominees appear to be enjoying wider advantages in the other statewide races. In general, partisan voters have begun rallying around their party’s candidates. Among truly independent voters, those who report leaning toward neither of the two major parties, Democratic candidates lead by significant margins, though in most contests, the plurality remain either without an expressed preference, nor an interest in supporting alternative candidates outside the universe of the two main parties.  

U.S. Senate

In the aftermath of a bruising primary contest extended by a run-off election, Texas Republican voters appear to be uniting behind Paxton, the current Attorney General, who defeated four-term incumbent John Cornyn in the May runoff election. In the preceding Texas Politics Project Poll in April, only 63% of Republicans said that they would be supporting Paxton in a hypothetical head-to-head match up with Talarico.

In the latest poll, 84% of GOP voters said that they would be supporting Paxton if the contest were held today, with 5% supporting Talarico, 2% preferring Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, another 2% supporting an unspecified “someone else,” and 7% with no opinion.

Talarico received a slightly higher but comparable level of support from Texas Democrats (88%), with 1% preferring Paxton, 3% choosing the Libertarian candidate, 2% “someone else,” and 6% with no opinion.

Independents, who made up 9% of the poll’s sample after weighting, preferred the Democratic candidate by a wide margin: 40% opted for Talarico compared to 12% who preferred Paxton, while 7% said that they would be supporting the Libertarian candidate, along with 8% who said they would be voting for “someone else.” Adding to the likely focus on this group in the upcoming election, 34% of independent voters had no opinion about the contest so far.

Statewide races and generic ballots

In the race for Texas governor, 47% said that they would be supporting Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, while 40% said that they favored Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa, with 1% opting for Libertarian Pat Dixon and 2% preferring “someone else. One in ten (10%) expressed no opinion about the contest. Both candidates attracted overwhelming support from their partisans: 88% of Democrats said they would be casting a ballot for  Hinojosa, while 90% of Republicans said they would do the same for Abbott. A plurality of independents, 41%, preferred Hinojosa, while 12% preferred the incumbent; 6% chose the Libertarian candidate, 10% preferred an unspecified “someone else, and a third, 33%, expressed no preference.

In the Lieutenant Governor’s race, where Republican Dan Patrick is also seeking a fourth term, 43% preferred the incumbent, while 36% chose Democrat Vikki Goodwin, an Austin-area state representative. Beyond the major candidates, 2% preferred Libertarian Anthony Cristo, 1% favored Green Party candidate Kevin McCormick, and 3% “someone else.” Given the lower profile of the race, a slightly higher share, 16%, expressed no opinion. While Patrick and Goodwin earned strong majority support from their partisans (83% of Republicans and 81% of Democrats, respectively), independents were largely uncommitted. Among these non-partisans, 24% preferred Goodwin while 14% preferred Patrick; 5% opted for the Libertarian Cristo, 3% for the Green Party candidate McCormick, and 7% “someone else.” The plurality, 46%, had no opinion about the race at this still early phase of the election calendar.

In the open contest to succeed Paxton as Attorney General, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democratic State Senator Nathan Johnson by 5 percentage points, 41% to 36%, with 2% favoring Libertarian Tom Oxford, 4% preferring “someone else,” and nearly one in five voters, 18%, holding no opinion. Here, too, both major party candidates have consolidated their partisan supporters, while independents also lean toward the Democratic candidate with a large share still undecided: 28% preferred Johnson and 7% chose Middleton, while 6% preferred Libertarian Tom Oxford, 15% “someone else,” and a clear plurality, 44%, had no opinion.

In the race to succeed acting Comptroller of Public Accounts Kelly Hancock, 40% preferred former Republican State Senator Don Huffines, while 34% opted for current Democratic State Senator Sarah Eckhardt, with Green Party candidate Shehla Faizi and Libertarian Party candidate Alonzo Echavarria-Garza each the choice of 1%; 2% said that they preferred “someone else,” while 21% expressed no opinion. Among independents, 23% said that they supported Eckhardt, 7% opted for Huffines, 5% Echavarria-Garza, and 4% opted for the Libertarian Faizi. As in other races, the plurality, 48%, expressed no opinion.

In the generic trial ballot for the U.S. Congress, in which Texas voters were asked about their vote in the Congressional race in their district without naming specific candidates, 49% said they would vote for “the Republican candidate” in their district if the election were held today, while 43% expected to vote for “the Democratic candidate.” 

In a similarly structured generic trial ballot for the Texas Legislature, the margin between the two major parties was also six points, with the generic Republican leading the generic Democratic, 50%-44%, with 2% preferring “someone else, and 4% expressing no opinion. Notably, among independents, 45% preferred the Democratic candidate, while only 11% said they would be supporting  the Republican; 15% preferred “someone else” and 29% had no opinion.

Economic concerns persist

The persistence of negative attitudes about the economy and strong, widespread concerns about prices underline the centrality of economic performance and stewardship to the upcoming election. 

The June poll asked Texas voters to identify the most important problems facing the state, with economic concerns predominating among Texans: a total of 33% cited “inflation/higher prices” (17%), “the economy” (10%),  “gas prices” (4%), or “unemployment/jobs” (2%). An only slightly larger share, 33%, also cited the economy and prices as the most important problems facing the country.

When asked to assess their own level of concern about various economic issues, more than half said that they were “very concerned” about the “cost of healthcare” (66%), “the price of food and consumer goods” (65%), “the price of gasoline and energy” (60%), and “the cost of housing” (52%). These four items also accounted for the largest shares of acute concerns in the preceding poll conducted in April. 

Democrats registered higher levels of concern about price-related economic issues than Republicans, while independents generally expressed higher levels of concern than Republicans, but somewhat lower levels than among Democrats. For example, slightly more than half of GOP voters, 52%, are “very concerned” about the price of health care, compared to 82% of Democrats and 68% of independents. “The price of food and consumer goods” was “very” concerning to not quite half of Republicans (49%), but elicited higher levels of concern among independents (68%) and, especially, among Democrats (85%).

These concerns likely weigh on Texas voters' prospective views of the economy. Asked for their expectations about the national economy in one year , 36% expect things to improve, while 35% expect things to get worse, with 18% expecting the economy to be performing “about the same.” The share expecting improvement decreased from 40% in February and 38% in April. 

In the latest poll, Republicans were more optimistic about the future performance of the economy than either Democrats or independents: 61% of GOP voters expected the economy to be better off a year down the road, including about a quarter (24%) who expected it to be “a lot better off, while 20% expect it to be the same and 11% expect the economy to worsen. The views of Democrats are broadly obverse: only 11% expect the economy to be “better off” in one year, while nearly two-thirds (64%) expect it to be worse, and 15% expect about the same. Independents’ evaluations are also in net-negative territory, with 16% expecting the economy to be “better off,” a larger share, 26%, expecting “about the same,” and the plurality, 43%, expecting the economy to be “worse off.”

Assessments of President Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s role as the figurehead of the Republican Party (and a very active one) as well as historically-grounded expectations that the party of the incumbent president faces headwinds in midterm elections make Texans’ views of the president a key element of state level election environments — despite Trump’s absence from the ballot itself. On the ground in Texas, from his intervention in key points of the current legislative session on issues including redistricting, school choice, and healthcare to his last-minute endorsement of Ken Paxton in the GOP primary, President Trump has directly inserted himself into Texas politics and government since returning to the White House last year for a second term in office.

Trump overall job approval

The president’s net job approval ratings remain in negative territory in the latest poll (43% approve, 51% disapprove), about where they’ve been since June 2025. Trump’s approval ratings among Texas Republicans (84%) ticked upward slightly (from 82% in April and and 81% in February), but his ratings among Democrats and independents reached historic lows in Texas Politics Project polling going back to the beginning of Trump’s first term. Only 1% of Democrats approved of Trump’s job performance in June, while 97% disapproved and 2% found their way to neither approving nor disapproving. Trump is only somewhat less deeply underwater among Texas independents: 12% said that they approved of the job he’s doing in June, while 71% disapproved (61% “strongly”), with 17% either neutral in their assessments (14%) or without an opinion (3%). 

Trump handling of issues

The decline in approval of the President’s job performance among Democrats and independents corresponded with declines in ratings of his handling of specific issue areas. 

The June results saw declines in Texas voters’ approval of Trump’s handling of policy in the two areas in which they have historically been most approving, border security and immigration; and deeply negative reviews of his handling of issues related to the economy, which voters have been focused upon since the beginning of Trump’s return to office. 

“Border security” was the only issue tested in the poll in which the share who approve of Trump’s performance (47%) exceeds the share who disapprove (44%) from among a eleven issue areas tested, but still a decline from the two preceding UT/TxPP polls, in which 52% approved and 40% disapproved. Texas voters’ evaluations of Trump's performance on immigration, historically a rallying point for Republicans and a lightning rod for Trump skeptics, were evenly divided: 46% of Texas voters approved while 46% disapproved, another decline from April polling, when 48% approved and 43% disapproved.

  Donald Trump Issue Area Job Approval
(June 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Republicans Independents Democrats
  Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
Border security 47 44 85 8 34 47 4 88
Immigration 46 46 85 9 21 57 5 90
Crime and public safety 42 45 79 8 18 58 4 85
Trade negotiations 39 49 73 13 17 66 3 89
Foreign policy 38 50 71 14 13 54 3 90
The economy 34 55 66 19 8 71 3 94
Government ethics 34 52 65 18 7 71 3 89
Government spending 31 55 59 21 6 72 4 91
Higher education, i.e. colleges and universities 30 46 55 11 12 57 3 87
Inflation and prices 28 58 54 25 8 77 1 93
Health care 28 53 54 18 5 65 4 91

Ratings of the president’s handling of economic policy also decayed: 34% of Texas voters said that they approved of his handling of “the economy,” while 55% disapproved (net -21), a decline from April when 36% approved and 52% disapproved (-16%). Reviews of Trump’s handling of the economy was one of his strong points during his first term – in the last Texas Politics Project poll before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in February 2020, 50% approved and 36% disapproved (net +14%). Voters gave Trump his lowest approval across the 11 areas tested for his handling of “inflation and prices” (28% approved, 58% disapproved) and health care (28% approve, 53% disapprove).

Trump traits

Texans’ assessments of several presidential traits yielded views of President Trump that were at best closely divided and at worst strongly negative on balance. 

Texas voters gave the president their best reviews when asked whether they think that he is a “strong leader”: half (50%) said yes, while 46% said no. Nearly half said they thought that the president was "knowledgeable" (49%, with 47% saying he was not) and ”competent” (49% yes, 48% no). All assessments represented a decline from when the same questions were asked in the October 2024 Texas Politics Poll, a few weeks before Trump won Texas’ electoral votes in the presidential election, defeating Kamala Harris by just under 14 points.

Do you think Donald Trump... 
(University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Polling)
  June 2026 October 2024
has the temperament to serve effectively as president? 43 48
is honest and trustworthy? 36 41
is competent? 49 53
cares about people like you? 38 46
is a strong leader? 50 58
is knowledgeable? 49 55
is too old to be president? 49 44

Voters provided their most negative assessments when asked whether the president is “honest and trustworthy” (36% yes, 55% no) and whether or not the president “cares about people like you” (38% yes, 54% no). Asked whether the president, who celebrated his 80th birthday earlier this month, “is too old to be president,” 49% said yes, and 44% said no.

Do you think Donald Trump... 
(June 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Polling)
  Republicans Independents Democrats
has the temperament to serve effectively as president? 80 17 3
is honest and trustworthy? 70 8 2
is competent? 88 26 7
cares about people like you? 74 10 1
is a strong leader? 89 27 9
is knowledgeable? 88 27 8
is too old to be president? 17 61 87

Republican responses were significantly more positive than those of Texas voters overall, ranging from a high of 89% (“is a strong leader”) to a low of 70% (“honest and trustworthy”). Democrats were even more uniformly negative, with fewer than 10% of Democrats attributing any positive trait to the president. Independents’ assessments were also negative on balance, with similar high and low points in their evaluations: 27% judged Trump “a strong leader” (though the majority, 61% did not) and "knowledgeable" (62% disagreed), while on the low end, 8% judged him “honest and trustworthy” (82% thought not).

Assessments of Gov. Greg Abbott

While the U.S. Senate race is drawing the most national attention from among the 2026 Texas contests, Gov. Greg Abbott’s well-funded attempt to win a record fourth term in office will also be a major focal point of the fall election. In addition to the trial ballot which found Abbott leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 47% to 40%, the June poll found Texans split on Abbott’s job performance, with 45% approving and 45% disapproving, 9% neutral, and 1% expressing no opinion.

Among Republicans, 80% approved and 9% disapproved of the job the state’s top ranked official is doing, with 10% neutral and 1% holding no opinion. Democrats expressed predominantly negative reviews of the Governor’s performance: only 7% approve while 87% disapprove, with 78% expressing strong disapproval. Among independents, 23% approve and 61% disapprove of the job Abbott is doing, with 12% neutral and 4% expressing no opinion.

Amidst high profile efforts to target Latino voters, 38% of Texas Latinos approved of Abbott’s job performance in June, while half (50%) disapproved — a position remarkably similar to this stage of Abbott’s previous gubernatorial campaign. In June 2022, 38% of Latinos approved and 51% disapproved of Abbott’s job performance. Exit polling reported Abbott receiving 40% of the Latino vote in the general election that year.

Asked to assess Abbott's job performance on major issues, Texas voters awarded Abbott his highest marks in response to his handling of border security (48% approve, 36% disapprove), immigration (45% approve, 41% disapprove), and crime and public safety (45% approve, 34% disapprove). 

However, Abbott fared less well on economic issues, which Democrats are signalling will be their major campaign focus as they continue to try to saddle Republicans with the blame for the high prices that have clearly caught voters’ attention. While he received better marks for his handling of “the Texas economy” (40% approve, 39% disapprove) than the president received for his handling the national economy (34% approve, 55% disapprove), only 30% approved of the Governor's handling of “inflation and prices,” with 45% disapproving. Only 28% approved of his handling of “housing,” while 40% disapproved.

  Greg Abbott Issue Area Approval
(June 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Republicans Independents Democrats
  Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
Border security 48 36 85 4 29 44 9 78
Immigration 45 41 81 7 22 50 9 82
Crime and public safety 45 34 78 3 19 45 11 69
The Texas economy 40 39 74 7 16 55 7 76
The electric grid 36 40 61 13 16 53 11 73
Property taxes 34 39 57 16 13 53 10 66
K-12 public education 33 41 58 11 14 52 11 73
Transportation 32 32 56 5 14 47 9 63
Healthcare 31 44 53 14 9 54 9 78
Inflation and prices 30 45 52 14 10 59 6 81
The water supply 30 37 53 9 13 51 8 70
Housing 28 40 51 11 11 55 7 74
Higher education (e.g. colleges and universities) 28 39 49 10 10 57 7 73
Marijuana/THC laws 27 36 44 16 11 41 10 61

On an issue that Abbott has worked hard to make a signature one for Republicans in the state, 34% approved of Abbott’s handling of property taxes while 39% disapproved. On the issue that surprisingly sowed discord among Republicans during the 2025 legislative session, 27% approved of Abbott’s handling of marijuana/THC laws, while 36% disapproved.

General Election Climate Indicators

Both major political parties enter the election with broadly favorable views from their own adherents, but with much more intensely negative views of the opposing party. As we wrote in a recent post based on April data, “Views of the parties among Texas partisans also continue to reveal the enduring influence of negative partisanship, which should be expected to significantly limit the potential for either party to attract crossover voters.” 

June 2026 polling finds 80% of Republicans holding a favorable view of their own party (42% very favorable), while 84% of those Republicans hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, including 64% who hold very unfavorable opinions. Among Democrats, 75% hold a favorable view of their own party (32% very favorable), while 93% hold an unfavorable view of the GOP, including 78% holding a very unfavorable opinion. Among both groups of partisans, dislike of the opposing party is more intense than favorable views of their own party.

Almost by definition, neither party attracts positive reviews from independents: 9% have a favorable opinion of the Republican party, while 62% have unfavorable views. Democrats fare no better: 8% view them favorably, while 53% view them unfavorably.

Questions asking whether each party is “welcoming to people like you” suggest where each party may have comparative advantage among key groups in the electorate, as well as where both parties have work to do.

Among the much-discussed Latino electorate, Democrats still appear to have something akin to an empathy advantage, though neither party appears to have convinced this key group. About half of Texas Latinos (51%) said the out-of-power party was welcoming, though more than third (35%) did not think this was the case. At the same time, despite years of GOP efforts recruiting Latinos and with some apparent success in the 2024 presidential election, 51% said the party was not welcoming to them, while 40% said the GOP welcomed them, with 9% offering no opinion. 

In the hard-fought suburbs that hold a large share of the state's voting population, suburbanites were split on whether they felt welcome in the GOP, with 47% feeling welcome and an equal share feeling unwelcome. Fewer suburbanites felt welcomed by the Democratic Party, but by a small margin that illustrate why some of these areas are home to the most competitive legislative and Congressional races in the state: 43% felt welcome in the Democratic Party, while 47% did not, with 10% having no opinion.

The efforts of the major parties to mobilize their respective bases for the general election come as both struggle to manage internal tensions between their more intensely ideological left- and right-wings and the moderates, pragmatists, and less ideologically committed members of the party.

After a decade of growing influence by ideologically driven corners of the Texas GOP, when asked if Republican elected officials were “too conservative, not conservative enough, or conservative enough, 28% said not conservative enough, 11% said too conservative, and 54% said conservative enough.

Similarly, Democrats were asked if their party’s elected officials were “too liberal, not liberal enough, or liberal enough.”  Their responses reflect less success by the ideological forces attempting to push the Democratic Party further to the left: 38% said the party was not liberal enough, 10% said it was too liberal, and 32% said its liberalism was about right.

Looking at the forces seemingly pushing the parties in more ideologically polarized directions, the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) label is more favorably viewed by Texas Republicans than is “Democratic Socialism” by Texas Democrats. 

Neither term elicits a net-favorable response among Texans voters as a whole: 38% view the MAGA movement favorably, while nearly half (49%) view it unfavorably, with 9% expressing a neutral view and 4% holding no opinion. Asked about their view of “democratic socialism,” 29% said that they have a favorable view while 46% view it unfavorably, 15% neutrally, and 10% with no opinion.

Among Texas Republicans, a significant majority, 71%, express a favorable view of MAGA, including 49% who view it “very” favorably, with 13% viewing it unfavorably, and 16% conveying a neutral response (13%) or no opinion (3%).

While a majority of Texas Democrats, 60%, have a favorable view of “democratic socialism,” their embrace is less broad and less intense (slightly more than a quarter of Democrats, 26%, have a “very favorable” view, compared to the nearly half of Republicans with a “very favorable” view of MAGA).  

Independents react negatively to both terms, though views of democratic socialism are slightly more positive than views of MAGA among this group: 22% view the former favorably, while 38% view it unfavorably, with a quarter (25%) expressing neutral views and 15% with no opinion. The MAGA movement elicits a more negative response from independents: 9% view it favorably, while 65% hold unfavorable views, including half (50%) with “very unfavorable” views, with 14% neutral, and 12% with no opinion.

Finally, in an oft-repeated question on the UT/TxPP poll, Texans were asked, “in the face of political or policy conflicts, is it more important for government officials to compromise or to stand on principle?” Texans were nearly evenly split in their response, with 52% saying that it’s more important to compromise, and 48% saying that government officials should stand on principle. These results are pretty consistent with previous instances, with 51% choosing compromise over standing on principle in November 2015 UT/TxPP polling. 

Texas Democrats, out of power in both Texas and nationally, endorse compromise (64%) at significantly higher rates than Republicans (40%), the majority of whom (60%) believe it’s better for elected officials to stand by their principles.

Policy Attitudes

Artificial Intelligence and Data Centers

As the discussion and application of artificial intelligence (AI) spreads into many major spheres of American life, most Texas voters with an opinion on the subject express significant degree of skepticism: nearly half of Texas voters, 49%, expect AI to negatively impact the economy, compared to only 29% who anticipate a positive effect, along with 5% who expect no impact, and 17% with no opinion.

Republicans are closely divided on AI, with 38% expecting a positive impact on the economy and 40% expecting a negative impact, while 6% anticipate no impact, and 16% hold no opinion. Democrats’ expectations skew much more negatively: a clear majority, 61%, expect AI to negatively impact the economy while 21% expect a positive impact; 4% expect no impact and 13% hold no opinion. Independents are least likely to expect a positive impact (15%), while the plurality, 47%, anticipate negative consequences, 1% expect no impact, but more than a third (36%) hold no opinion.

Texas voters’ broadly negative economic expectations may reflect a mixture of uncertainty along with a lack of expected personal benefit from AI during the relatively early stages of broad public deployment of AI tools. The plurality of Texas voters expected AI to have no impact in three personal economic domains, with expected negative impact outweighing negative impact in two of the three areas:

The pattern of relatively low levels of expected impact carries over in personal and social domains:

In both broad economic expectations and assessments of personal impact, age is a driver of attitudes regarding AI, with younger voters significantly more optimistic and older voters more skeptical or expectant of no personal impact. 

The results portray a generational divide on how AI will affect the economy: voters aged 18-29 are the most optimistic, with half (50%) expecting a positive economic impact compared to 38% who expect a negative one. On the other side of this divide, voters aged 65 and older are the most pessimistic; only 18% expect a positive impact, while a majority (58%) anticipate a negative impact. The middle-aged group (age 45-64) aligns more with the oldest cohort, with 55% expecting negative results.

Texans under 45, and particularly those under 30, are early adopters of an optimistic outlook, with many seeing AI as a benefit to their work, health, and standard of living. In contrast, Texans over 45 are much more likely to believe AI will either harm their financial situation or have no personal impact at all.

Some of these differences among age cohorts likely reflect different life stages. For example, 43% of those aged 18-29 expect a positive impact on their current jobs, whereas only 17% of those aged 45-64 and 4% of those 65+ express the same sentiment. Notably, 66% of the 65+ group expect "No impact," likely reflecting their retired status. And when it comes to career prospects, 41% of the 18-29 cohort see AI positively impacting their future career (29% anticipate a negative impact), while 33% of the 45-64 age group have negative expectations (and only 14% of the latter group have positive expectations). 

The impact of age evident in these results also appear in a pattern of declining support for constructing data centers in one's local community as age increases. Among the 18-29 cohort, a clear plurality, 39% support the construction of a data center (16% "strongly" and 23% "somewhat"), while 24% oppose it. Support remains net-positive among voters aged 30-44 but narrows, with 33% in support and 28% in opposition. Views flip to net-opposition among voters aged 45-64: Only 24% support data centers, while 32% oppose them. Voters aged 65 and older are the most resistant: Only 20% support local data center construction, while 33% oppose it (the highest "strongly oppose" share, at 18%).

Texans are hearing a lot about AI in the news: asked to report how much they have “heard in the news” about a dozen national and state items, 61% reported having heard “a lot” about “Artificial intelligence (AI), the second largest share reporting such a level of news exposure behind “war with Iran.” News about “data centers in Texas” was much less prominent in Texas voters’ news consumption: a much smaller share, 39%, reported hearing “a lot” about data centers while 41% had heard “some,” 13% had heard “not very much,” and 7% had heard “nothing at all.”

Abortion pills

In the aftermath of a May 2026 order issued by the U.S. Supreme Court blocking lower-court restrictions seeking to halt the mailing of the abortion pill mifepristone, the latest TxPP poll deployed two differently worded questions, each assigned randomly to half of the sample, to estimate views of Texas women being able to obtain abortion-inducing medication prescribed by out-of-state doctors in the mail. 

The results were broadly similar in finding more support than opposition to mail-order access to abortion pills. Overall support for legality is higher when framed around a woman in Texas seeking prescribed pills by the mail from an out of state doctor than when framed around the out-of-state doctor prescribing those same pills to a woman living in Texas. 

Wording of the question that focused on women’s access to abortion pills elicited support from a majority of Texas voters. Asked the question, “Do you think it should be legal for women living in Texas to be prescribed the pills used for a medicated abortion by doctors living in states where abortion remains legal,” 53% thought it “should be legal” while 29% thought it “should NOT be legal,” with 19% expressing no opinion. Among Democrats, 84% supported legal access, 5% thought it should not be legal, and 11% had no opinion. Republican views, as is common in many scenarios involving abortion access, were less lopsided: 27% supported legal access, 51% opposed it, and 22% expressed no opinion. Among independents, 56% supported legal access, while 14% opposed it, with a familiarly larger share (compared to partisans), 30%, with no opinion.

The alternative wording of the question with doctors in the foreground elicited narrower support. Asked, “Do you think it should be legal for doctors in states where abortion remains legal to prescribe the pills used for a medicated abortion to women living in Texas,” support for the practice decreased 5 points to 48%, while opposition increased by the same amount, to 34%, with about the same amounts, 18%, expressing no opinion. With doctors at the center of the frame rather than Texas women, Democratic support decreased 6 points, to 78%, while the share thinking the practice “should NOT be legal” increased by the same amount, to 11%. Republican support also decreased: 22% thought the practice “should be legal” while 55% thought it “should NOT be legal” — 22% were unable to offer an opinion. Independent support was statistically indistinguishable from responses to the alternate wording (57%), while 17% opposed legal access, with the share holding no opinion decreasing from 30% to 26%.

Overall, while voters overall and Democratic and liberal-leaning groups find the focus on a woman's perspective more compelling, rural and highly religious voters appear significantly more comfortable with the legality of the transaction when it is framed as an action taken by a doctor in a state where the practice remains legal. 

A recurring question about views of the general strictness of abortion in the laws in Texas provides context for views of access to medicated abortion. When asked, “Do you think that abortion laws in Texas should be made more strict, less strict, or left as they are now,” the plurality (43%) favored making abortions laws “less strict,” about one in five (21%) favored making abortion laws “more strict,” one quarter (25%) favored them being “left as they are now,” while 11% had no opinion.

Similar shares of Republicans favored stricter laws (36%) and the status quo (39%), with 16% favoring less strict laws and 9% having no opinion. Democrats’ views conveyed much more consensus within the frame of the question: 78% favored less strict abortion laws, while 8% favored the status quo and only 6% favored a stricter approach. The (small) share of independents favoring “more strict” laws (5%) is statistically indistinguishable from the share of Democrats with the same view, but independents are three times as likely as democrats to favor the status quo (24%), even as the plurality (45%) favor “less strict” laws and 26% expressed no opinion.

U.S. military action in Iran

The war with Iran has continued to dominate the news feeds of Texas voters, much as it did in the previous Texas Politics Project Poll: 73% reported hearing “a lot” about “war with Iran,” the largest share reporting this level of exposure in a list of twelve contemporary news stories. Yet few Texas voters are attributing great urgency to the war: only 4% cite “Middle East instability/War in Iran” as the most important problem facing the country. The predominance of economic factors, particularly prices, in Texas voters’ views of the relative salience of problems facing the country does point towards a linkage between higher prices and economic instability and the Iranian conflict that may be operative in public opinion, though this link is not captured directly by the content of the poll.

Texas views of the war remain negative overall, though slightly less so than in April: 41% approve and 47% disapprove of “U.S. military actions against Iran,” with 8% neutral and 4% holding no opinion. In April, 37% approved and 49% disapproved. The decrease in net approval from -12 in April to -6 is attributable to an increase in support among Texas Republicans (from 69% approve / 16% disapprove in April to 75% approve / 15% disapprove in June) and among independents (from 11% approve / 72% disapprove in April to 18% approve / 63% disapprove in June).

Views of discrimination experienced by social groups

A recurring battery of questions assessing attitudes toward different social groups sheds light on some of the dynamics in the two political parties in the current campaign year. 

The poll asked Texas voters, “In your opinion, in the United States today, how much discrimination is there against…,” followed by a list of 11 social groups, with the option to choose: “A lot of discrimination”, “Some”, “Not very much”, "None at all", "Don't know/no opinion." After these assessments, respondents were asked, “In your opinion, which of the following groups faces the MOST discrimination in the United States today?”

In the group assessments, the following shares of Texas voters said these groups experienced “a lot of discrimination”: Transgender people, 45%; African Americans, 38%; Muslims, 37%; Gays and lesbians, 35%; Jews, 32%; Hispanics, 28%; women, 22%; Christians, 18%; Asians, 14%; Whites, 16%; and men, 9%.

Partisan differences in these assessments provide context for politics within each of the major political parties this past primary season, and between them as the general election campaigns unfold. In broad strokes, Democrats are much more likely to perceive that different social groups are experiencing discrimination than are Republicans (and somewhat more likely than independents), as the table below illustrates.

Groups experiencing “a lot” of discrimination in the United States, overall and by party identification
(June 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Republicans Independents Democrats
Transgender people 45 20 40 77
African Americans 38 12 38 68
Muslims 37 17 38 63
Gays and lesbians 35 15 30 63
Jews 32 31 28 33
Hispanics 28 8 29 53
Women 22 7 17 39
Christians 18 27 20 6
Whites 16 25 21 2
Asians 14 4 17 26
Men 9 14 16 2

Among Texas Republicans, the groups most likely to be perceived as subject to “a lot” of discrimination include Jews (31%), Christians (27%), Whites (25%), and transgender people (20%). Fewer than one in five Republicans see Muslims (17%), gays and lesbians (15%), men (14%), African Americans (12%), Hispanics (8%), women (7%), and Asians (4%) as subject to the same, relatively high, level of discrimination.

Overall perceptions of a “a lot” of discrimination are higher among Texas Democrats, and distributed very differently: Majorities of Democratic voters see “a lot” of discrimination against transgender people (77%), African Americans (68%), gays and lesbians (63%), Muslims (63%), and Hispanics (53%). Fewer than half perceive “a lot” of discrimination against women (39%), Jews (33%), and Asians (26%), and less than 10% see the same extent of discrimination against two of the three groups that top the Republican list – Christians (6%) and Whites (2%). 

Party differences in perceptions of which groups are most discriminated against reflect some of these assessments. In rank order, 19% of Republicans say Jews experience the most discrimination, followed by Christians (16%), Whites (15%), transgender people (13%), and African Americans (11%). Democrats are most likely to find African Americans (32%) discriminated against the most, followed by transgender people (30%), and Hispanics (16%). Comparing Democratic perceptions of discrimination to Republicans’, 3% of Democrats thought Jews were most discriminated against, and fewer than 1% (rounded to zero in reporting of results) thought Christians and Whites experienced the most discrimination.

As efforts to politicize Muslim social and political organization in Texas gain more attention, particularly in Republican Party politics, 9% of Republicans, 7% of Democrats, and 5% of independents see Muslims experience the most discrimination.

Job Approvals and Favorability Ratings

State and federal job approval

Candidate Favorability ratings

 

2026 Candidate Favorability Ratings
(June 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Republicans Independents Democrats
  Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable
Greg Abbott 46 44 82 8 21 57 8 87
James Talarico 39 36 11 62 31 23 77 7
Dan Patrick 33 39 59 10 13 46 5 76
Ken Paxton 32 47 59 18 17 59 4 83
Gina Hinojosa 32 22 8 39 24 8 64 5
Mayes Middleton 23 18 40 6 4 25 6 31
Don Huffines  19 20 34 8 4 16 5 34
Vikki Goodwin 14 13 6 18 3 8 28 7
Nathan Johnson 12 12 8 16 1 8 21 9
Sarah Eckhardt 10 12 7 17 2 10 17 6
Results reported among registered voters.

 

Keywords: 2026 election Abortion Artificial Intelligence Discrimination Economy Foreign Policy Iran Texas Economy Dan Patrick Donald Trump Gina Hinojosa Greg Abbott James Talarico Ken Paxton Mayes Middleton Nathan Johnson Vikki Goodwin