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With 2026 elections just over the horizon, economic concerns deepen in new UT/Texas Politics Project Poll

| By: James Henson, Joshua Blank

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Amidst a prolonged federal government shutdown and one year away from the 2026 election, the October 2025 Texas Politics Project poll finds Texas voters reporting worsening personal economic conditions, with increasingly pessimistic views of the wider economy and the direction of the state and country. These views are accompanied by similarly negative views of incumbent elected officials as attention continues to turn slowly toward next year’s elections. Primary elections are scheduled for March 3, 2026 in advance of the mid-term election on November 3.

The poll was conducted October 10-20, 2025 among 1200 self-declared registered voters residing in Texas. Data collection was conducted by YouGov over the internet. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/- 2.83% (3.32% adjusted for weighting) unless otherwise noted.

Key Findings

  • 43% of Texas voters said their family's economic circumstances are worse off than a year ago, while 34% report being better off and 35% say they are economically about the same.
  • More than a quarter of Texas voters identified either “inflation/rising prices” (14%), “the economy” (11%), or “unemployment/jobs” (2%) as the most important problems facing the country.
  • 44% expect the national economy to be worse off a year from now, while 32% expect it to be better, and 16% about the same.
  • Half or more Texans disapprove of how the federal government shutdown is being handled by Donald Trump (51% disapprove), Congressional Republicans (50% disapprove), and Congressional Democrats (52% disapprove), though Democrats and Republicans are more approving of how their party is handling the impasse.
  • 44% reported that the shutdown had no impact on them or their family, with 39% reporting it has hurt their household, 3% saying it has helped, and 13% expressing no view.
  • A large majority of Texas voters (61%) believe that the government shutdown is bad for the state. Even among Republicans, the plurality, 42%, say that the government shutdown is bad for Texas.
  • 35% said the country is headed in the right direction, while the majority, 58%, said it was on the wrong track. Similarly, 36% said Texas was headed in the right direction, and 54% said it was on the wrong track.
  • Well more than half of Texas voters reported being “very concerned” about the “prices of food and consumer goods” (66%, up from 60% in June), “the cost of healthcare” (66%, up from 61% in June), and “the cost of housing” (57%, up from 53% in June).
  • 42% approved of President Donald Trump’s job performance in October, the poorest Texas showing of his second term, while 51% disapproved. Among Republicans, 84% approved, with 8% disapproving, the highest approval rating among Republicans of any elected official included in the poll.
  • 32% approved and 47% disapproved of the job Gov. Greg Abbott is doing. Among Republicans, 76% approved and 13% disapproved.
  • 24% overall view Senator John Cornyn favorably, while 46% view him unfavorably. Among Republicans, 43% view him favorably, 24% have unfavorable views of the 4-term incumbent.
  • 28% view Attorney General Ken Paxton, Cornyn’s challenger in the GOP primary, while 44% view him unfavorably. Among Republicans, 55% view Paxton favorably, while 16% view him unfavorably.
  • Former Congressman Colin Allred is viewed favorably by 59% of Texas Democrats, and unfavorably by 10%.
    State Rep. James Talrico is viewed favorably by 43% of Texas Democrats and unfavorably by 5%.
  • 43% support the use of the U.S. military for law enforcement efforts in American cities, while 49% oppose it.
  •  91%, reported feeling either “very safe” (43%) or “somewhat safe” (48%) in the areas they live, while only 8% reported feeling “somewhat unsafe” (5%) or “very unsafe” (3%).
  • Asked how secure free speech rights are in America today, only 7% of Texans said “completely secure,” with 15% saying that they are “very secure.” A plurality, 41%, said that free speech rights are “not at all secure.”
  • 67% said that they consider vaccines to be safe, and 70% of Texans believe vaccines are effective.
  • 65% agreed that parents should be required to vaccinate their children against common childhood diseases, while 22% disagreed. 

Economic perceptions increasingly shape views of most important problems facing the U.S. and Texas

When asked about the most important problem facing the United States, economic issues dominated Texas voters’ responses as they have in UT/TxPP polling over the last year. More than a quarter of Texas voters identified either “inflation/rising prices” (14%), “the economy” (11%), or “unemployment/jobs” (2%) as the most important problems facing the country. After this cluster of economic concerns, political corruption/leadership ranked second highest overall (22%), reflecting sharp differences in partisan views of the country’s most important problem.

For Democrats, political corruption and leadership was their top concern (39%), whereas a quarter of Republicans prioritized inflation (14%), and the economy (11%), followed by immigration and border security (14% and 3%, respectively).

Texans’ views of the most important problems facing the state were similar – another set of data points illustrating the ongoing nationalization of the political environment in the state. Economic concerns were similarly dominant in the reported views of problems facing Texas, with slightly less than a quarter of respondents identifying “inflation/rising prices” (14%), “the economy” (6%), or “unemployment/jobs” (3%) as the most important problems facing Texas.

A third of Democrats (33%) cited “political corruption/leadership,” while just under a fifth cited economic matters like “inflation/rising prices” (10%), “the economy” (5%), or “unemployment/jobs” (4%) as the most important problems facing Texas. Among Texas Republicans, a combined 30% cited either immigration (17%) or border security (13%) as the state’s most important problem, while slightly less than a quarter quarter (23%) cited either “inflation/rising prices” (13%), “the economy” (8%), or “unemployment/jobs” (2%). Only 4% cited the most frequent Democratic response, “political corruption/leadership.”

Independents were comparably focused on the economy: 18% cited “inflation/rising prices,” 8% “the economy,” and 2% “unemployment/jobs.” Independents were more likely than Republicans to cite “political corruption/leadership” (21%), though not as likely as Democrats influenced by Republican dominance of statewide elected offices and government institutions.

Negative economic sentiments predominate, marked by significant, but complex, partisan differences

Looking back

Retrospective comparisons of the national economy to one year ago are broadly negative, with 53% of Texas voters saying that the national economy is somewhat (20%) or a lot worse off (33%) compared to a year ago, versus 27% who say it is better off. Views are highly polarized along party lines: Democrats overwhelmingly see the national economy as worse off (86%), while Republicans are comparatively optimistic about the economy’s improvement over the last year (56% view it as better off). Nearly two-thirds of independents, 64%, say that the national economy is doing worse than last year.

Assessments of the Texas economy are in net-negative territory, but less negative than assessments of the national economy: 46% believe the state’s economy is worse off than a year ago, while 26% believe it is better off. However, the 46% saying the Texas economy is worse off is the highest share making this negative assessment in three years (October 2022: 47%).

Partisanship shapes responses to the state economy as well. Democratic views of the state economy are lopsidedly negative (74% worse off), whereas Republicans are on balance more positive (52% better off).

When asked to make a more personal assessment of the economic condition of their household compared to a year ago, Texas voters rendered less positive judgements than they delivered in their macrolevel assessments: 21% reported being better off than a year ago (5% a lot, 16% somewhat), with the plurality, 43%, reporting being worse off (25% somewhat, 18% a lot worse off). A little more than a third, 35%, reported their economic situation as being about the same.

Texas Republicans' views of their personal economic situation remain noticeably less sanguine than their macroeconomic assessments. Only 36% say they are either “a lot better off” (7%) or “somewhat better off” (29%) than a year ago, compared to their parallel comparisons of the economic conditions of the national (56%) and Texas (52%) economies. A plurality of Republicans, 40%, say that their personal situations are "about the same,” while 23% say they are somewhat (16%) or a lot (7%) worse off.

Subject to fewer partisan cross pressures, Texas Democrats’ personal economic assessments were more in line with their macroeconomic assessments. Just 9% of Democrats reported being “a lot” (5%) or “somewhat better off” (6%), while 32% were “about the same,” and 58% were “somewhat” (34%) or “a lot worse off” (24%). The personal assessments of Democrats were almost identical to those made by independents, with only 9% rating their economic situation as having improved, and 57% saying that they’re doing worse financially.

Looking to the future

When asked about the future of the national economy, Texans continue to express increasingly pessimistic predictions overall, but again, divided along party lines. Overall, the share of Texans saying that they expect the economy to be worse one year from now increased again, for the sixth survey in a row going back one year to October 2024.

Among Republicans, optimism runs high: 61% expect the economy to be better off a year from now, with 26% expecting it to be “a lot better off.”  Only 6% of Democrats shared that optimism, while nearly half (48%) expect the economy to be “a lot worse off.” Among independents, 17% expect improvement while 38% anticipate worsening conditions. 

Breaking down Texans’ economic concerns

Texas voters’ ongoing concerns about the price of core household expenses continued to increase gradually again in the most recent survey, as did the level of their concerns about most other economic matters.

Concerns about prices have increased significantly against the baseline of the June UT/TxPP Poll. Well more than half of Texas voters reported being “very concerned” about the “prices of food and consumer goods” (66%, up from 60% in June), “the cost of healthcare” (66%, up from 61% in June), and “the cost of housing” (57%, up from 53% in June). The same level of concern about “people who want to find work being unable to find jobs” increased from 38% in June to 41% in August to 46% in October, on track with increasing signs of growing weakness in the U.S. labor market in recent months.

The only subjects that did not see at least an incremental increase in the same “very concerned” response compared to June were the national debt, the stability of the banking system, and the stock market.

Job Approval numbers bogged down by negative views of the economy, government shutdown

The pattern in job approval numbers of both national and state elected officials remain seemingly weighted down by economic doubts and a generally tempestuous political climate epitomized by negative views of the handling of the government shutdown.

Federal government shutdown

Awareness of the shutdown is pervasive: 90% of Texas voters report having heard “a lot” (66%) or some (24%) about the partial government shutdown that started on October 1 and so was well under way during the data collection period (October 10-20). 

As the political impasse over funding the federal government moved into a third week, 44% reported that the shutdown had no impact on them and their family, with 39% reporting it helped their household, 3% saying it helped them, and 13% expressing no view. 

Here, too, the poll revealed partisan differences. More than half of Democrats and Independents said the shutdown was hurting their households (53% and 54% respectively), while a larger majority of Texas Republicans, 61%, reported the shutdown was having no economic impact on them.

Yet negative expectations about the shutdown’s impact on the state were widespread: a large majority of Texas voters (61%) believe that the government shutdown is bad for the state. Even among Texas Republicans, the plurality, 42%, say that the government shutdown is bad for Texas, with only 17% offering that the shutdown is, in fact, good for the state.

Overall approval ratings of how President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans and Democrats are handling the shutdown might suggest that all have an incentive to find a way to end the stalemate:

Yet beneath these topline numbers, a much sharper partisan divide illustrates why elected officials may be sticking with the partisan positions that both led to and are extending the shutdown. 

Around three-quarters of Texas Republicans approve of the way Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans are handling the shutdown (76% and 73%, respectively). Similarly, about two-thirds of Texas Democrats, 64%, approve of how Congressional Democrats are handling the shutdown, while only 3% approve of Trump’s handling, and an even smaller share, 2%, approve of how Congressional Republicans are handling the shutdown. 

Among independents, 60% disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling the shutdown, 58% disapprove of Republicans in Congress, while 54% disapprove of Democrats.

Partisans leaders in both parties received substantial support from their respective bases for not giving in to the other side, while Donald Trump receives slightly higher marks both in the overall sample and among Texas Republican voters than do Congressional Republicans.

Job Approval ratings

With the 2026 election just over the horizon, Texans’ views of elected officials continue a gradual but clear erosion as measured in overall job approval levels across the five UT/TxPP polls conducted in 2025, including among Republicans (though there are no signs of anything approaching abandonment of GOP leaders by their voters).

National leaders

President Donald Trump’s job approval ratings continue to erode, albeit slowly. Overall, 42% approved of Trump’s job performance in October, the poorest showing of his second term. This was a statistically indistinguishable change compared to his overall approval in August (43% approve / 50% disapprove), but is the fifth consecutive poll in which the share approving of his job performance has declined since 52% approved in February 2025, as the graphic below illustrates.

The president’s approval rating among his Republican base remains  robust, at 84%, with only 8% disapproving, the highest approval rating among Republicans of any elected official included in the poll. 

As Congress continues to suffer from gridlock, and as the GOP majorities continue to cede legislative power to the White House, both the Congress as a whole and the congressional leadership of both parties are viewed dimly by Texas voters, as the following job approval ratings illustrate:

As for the judicial branch of the federal government, approval of the U.S. Supreme Court hit a new low in October, shortly after the court returned for the current session, with 32% approving of the job the highest court in the land is doing (the lowest in 12 surveys going back to October 2023), while 47% disapproved (the highest in the time series). 

Echoing the increasingly partisan nature of the court, Republicans largely approved (61%) of the court’s performance, while Democrats overwhelmingly disapproved (82%). The share of independents who disapproved hit its highest mark in polling going back to October of 2023, with 53% disapproving and only 19% approving.

State leaders

The job approval ratings of statewide elected officials have also suffered declines over the course of 2025 that have largely continued in the October poll. 

Gov. Greg Abbott: 

  • 32% approve / 47% disapprove (February: 48% approve / 37% disapprove)

  • Republicans: 76% approve / 13% disapprove (February: 82% / 7%)

  • Independents: 24% approve / 58% disapprove (February: 23% / 39%)

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick:

  • 29% approve / 46% disapprove (February: 37% / 32%)

  • Republicans: 57% approve / 15% disapprove (February: 65% / 9%)

  • Independents: 17% approve / 52% disapprove (February: 19% / 25%)

Speaker of the Texas House Dustin Burrows: 

  • 15% approve / 37% disapprove (February: 20% / 26%)

  • Republicans: 27% approve / 19% disapprove (February: 33% / 13%)

Attorney General Ken Paxton: 

  • 29% approve / 45% disapprove (February: 37% / 34%)

  • Republicans: 57% approve / 14% disapprove (February: 62% / 11%)

  • Independents: 14% approve / 46% disapprove (February: 22% / 33%)

U.S. Senator John Cornyn:

  • 25% approve / 49% disapprove (February: 30% / 37%)

  • Republicans: 47% approve / 24% disapprove (February: 49% / 21%)

  • Independents: 9% approve / 57% disapprove (February: 11% / 34%)

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz:

  • 35% approve / 50% disapprove (February: 46% / 40%)

  • Republicans: 71% approve / 15% disapprove (February: 80% / 9%)

  • Independents: 16% approve / 62% disapprove (February: 22% / 50%)

2026 election leading indicators

Along with general decreases in the approval ratings of incumbents either running for re-election or trying to move up to higher office, incumbent favorability assessments also remain generally anemic, even as challengers in both parties (i.e. challengers to GOP incumbents and Democrats vying for the chance to challenge Republican candidates in November) attempt to increase their name recognition and to exploit what can fairly be called a significant degree of crabbiness toward incumbents.

U.S. Senate candidates, current and potential

Both the Democratic and Republican fields in the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by incumbent John Cornyn have continued to evolve since the August UT/TxPP Poll as more candidates either commit to running or send up additional trial balloons. The filing deadline for the 2026 primary elections is December 8. 

In the Republican primary contest, early October saw Congressman Wesley Hunt join Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race to prevent Cornyn from winning a chance to run for a fifth term.

Neither candidate’s favorability ratings have changed dramatically during the early exchanges of attacks and counterattacks. Thinking about the general election audience, 24% of Texas voters overall view Cornyn favorably, while 46% view him unfavorably, statistically indistinguishable from the 22% favorable, 45% unfavorable ratings Cornyn received in August. 

The same torpor is evident in Paxton’s ratings, though in the attorney general’s case a lack of movement after a summer of negative social media by the Cornyn campaign may be welcome news. Overall views of Paxton – 28% favorable, 44% unfavorable – also changed very little compared to August (28% favorable / 45% unfavorable). Paxton’s numbers are slightly more positive than Cornyn’s in the October poll, even though the predicate in much of the thinking about the race is that Cornyn is a more appealing general election candidate. Newcomer to the race Wesley Hunt, who has never run a statewide campaign, found 16% holding a favorable opinion of the Houston area Congressman and 18% holding unfavorable opinions.

Texas Republicans continue to view Paxton more favorably than Cornyn: 55% hold a favorable view of Paxton (16% unfavorable), while 43% view Cornyn favorably, but with nearly a quarter, 24%, holding an unfavorable view of their incumbent senator. Wesley Hunt remains a lesser known quantity among Texas Republicans: 29% have a favorable view of him, while 9% hold an unfavorable view.

Focusing in on those voters more likely to vote in GOP primary elections, which attracts a relatively small subset of politically and ideologically motivated partisans, Paxton consistently elicits more favorable views than Cornyn:

  • Among those who identify as “strong Republicans,” 68% view Paxton favorably and 10% view him unfavorably, while 54% view Cornyn favorably, with 19% viewing him unfavorably.
  • Among those who identify as “extremely conservative,” 66% view Paxton favorably, 15% unfavorably. A significantly smaller share, 42%, view Cornyn favorably, while more than a third, 35%, view him unfavorably.

 

Favorability Ratings
(October 2025 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Republicans Strong Republicans Conservatives
  Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know
John Cornyn 24 46 30 43 24 33 54 19 28 40 26 34
Ken Paxton 28 44 27 55 16 28 67 10 23 54 19 26
Wesley Hunt 16 18 66 29 9 63 31 8 62 27 9 64

On the Democratic side, Austin State Representative James Talarico’s entrance into the senate primary challenging former Congressman Collin Allred and former astronaut Terry Virts has injected new energy into the primary contest. In recent days, Dallas-area Congresswoman Jasmine Crocket has sent more signals that she is strongly considering joining the race. 

Favorability ratings of the emerging Democratic field suggest why Crockett’s entry in the race would likely find her in a competitive position. As she considers entering the race, Crockett was viewed favorably by a larger share of Democrats than any of the already-declared candidates: 62% view her favorably, while only 6% view her unfavorably.

Allred is viewed favorably by 59% of Texas Democrats, and unfavorably by 10%, while Talarico, who has never run statewide but is benefitting from both traditional and social media attention in recent months, is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 5% (up from 31% favorable / 9% unfavorable in August). Astronaut Terry Virts remains comparatively earthbound: 9% view him favorably, while 8% view him unfavorably.

 

Favorability Ratings
(October 2025 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Democrats Strong Democrats Liberals
  Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know
Colin Allred 32 32 35 59 10 31 69 7 24 69 13 29
James Talarico 22 12 65 43 5 52 49 4 48 46 7 47
Terry Virts 7 10 83 9 8 83 13 7 80 11 8 80
Jasmine Crockett 30 32 38 62 6 33 70 5 25 67 7 26

Most Texas voters remain tuned out of the Senate race, though their attention is slowly turning to it as 2026 nears. In the latest poll, 21% said they had heard “a lot” about the race, with another 36% saying they had heard “some” about it; 28% said they had heard “not very much,” and 19% had heard “nothing at all.”

Other current and potential 2026 candidates

The poll also asked Texas voters to share favorability ratings of several other candidates for stateside office, including prominent incumbents running for re-election such as the governor and lieutenant governor, and many of the declared candidates for open races for the Attorney General and Comptroller’s office. The list is not meant to be comprehensive — a more complete battery of ratings will follow after the candidate filing deadline has passed.

 

Favorability Ratings
(October 2025 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Republicans Democrats
  Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know
Greg Abbott 41 49 10 78 14 12 7 87 5
Andrew White 9 10 81 8 9 83 14 9 78
Gina Hinojosa 14 15 71 5 24 71 25 6 69
Dan Patrick 28 43 28 55 15 30 5 74 21
Vikki Goodwin 9 10 81 9 11 80 12 8 80
Chip Roy 22 21 58 42 7 52 5 37 58
Joan Huffman 9 11 81 14 6 80 3 15 80
Nathan Johnson 9 8 82 7 10 83 12 6 82
Joe Jaworski 9 10 81 8 11 80 14 6 81
Aaron Reitz 8 10 82 12 6 82 4 14 82
Mayes Middleton 8 9 83 14 4 82 4 13 83
Don Huffines 13 15 72 24 7 69 4 25 71
Christi Craddick 12 13 75 20 7 73 4 19 77
Kelly Hancock 8 11 81 12 5 83 4 17 79
Beto O’Rourke 36 41 23 6 77 17 73 6 21
Julian Castro 23 24 53 7 41 52 47 8 45
Sid Miller 14 17 69 26 8 66 4 27 69
Ronny Jackson 13 17 70 24 9 67 5 28 67
Dawn Buckingham 9 11 80 16 7 77 4 16 80

Views of the two parties

Views of both parties remain negative one year out from the election. Overall, majorities of voters have unfavorable impressions of both the Republican (51%) and Democratic (54%) parties, though favorable views of the Republican Party (38%) outpace favorable views of the Democratic Party (31%).

Democratic voters are creating much of the drag in Democratic perceptions. While 80% of Republican voters say that they hold a favorable view of their own party (10% unfavorable), only 69% of Democratic voters say the same about their own party, with nearly one in five, 18%, registering an unfavorable opinion.

Overall, the plurality of Republican voters, 45%, say that their party is conservative enough, while slightly more than a third, 35%, say the party could be more conservative. Among Democratic voters, the plurality, 42%, say that the party could be more liberal, with 36% saying that the party is liberal enough.

Drilldown into approval of Trump policy performance

Overall, Donald Trump's total disapproval ratings across most major policy areas generally exceeded his total approval ratings in the October 2025 survey.

In an echo of previous polling, President Trump received the highest total job approval ratings for his handling of border security and immigration issues:

  • Border security: 48% total approval (37% strongly approve, 11% somewhat approve). 41% total disapproval.
  • Immigration: 45% total approval (36% strongly approve, 9% somewhat approve). 48% total disapproval.
  • Crime and public safety: 42% total approval (28% strongly approve, 14% somewhat approve). 44% total disapproval.

Trump again fared comparatively poorly when Texas voters were asked to evaluate his handling of issues related to the economy: 36% approved and 52% disapproved of his handling of the economy, while an even lower 31% approved of his handling of “inflation and prices,” with 57% disapproving. One of his lowest policy approval ratings resulted from one of the issues animating Democrats in the federal government shutdown: 29% approved of his handling of health care, with 51% disapproving.

 

Donald Trump Issue Specific Job Approvals
(October 2025 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Republicans Independents Democrats
  Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
Border Security 48 41 90 4 33 50 10 82
Immigration 45 48 87 7 26 58 5 90
Crime and Public Safety 42 44 81 7 29 53 6 85
Free speech rights 38 47 73 8 23 52 7 88
Foreign Policy 40 47 79 8 24 56 4 85
Diversity, equity, and inclusion (“D.E.I.”) policies 38 47 77 7 23 52 4 89
Trade negotiations 37 48 74 12 19 59 4 86
The federal workforce 36 47 69 10 20 58 5 88
The economy 36 52 73 14 20 61 3 91
Government ethics 35 50 69 11 21 60 4 90
Government spending 34 52 66 18 20 58 2 89
Taxes 33 51 66 13 17 69 4 87
Higher education 33 45 64 7 20 51 4 86
Inflation and prices 31 57 62 21 17 74 3 92
Climate change 31 46 62 9 18 52 2 86
Abortion access 29 49 59 11 19 50 3 88
Redistricting 29 45 59 7 14 53 3 87
Health care 29 51 58 14 13 66 5 89

Selected policy attitudes

The military, law enforcement, and rights

The potential use of military force for domestic law enforcement generates strong opinions and significant partisan disagreement.

Partisanship underlies a close division in attitudes about President Trump’s efforts to use the U.S. military for law enforcement actions in major American cities as those deployments are actively reviewed by the federal courts – and appear likely to land in the Supreme Court. 

Overall, 43% of voters support the use of the U.S. military for law enforcement efforts in American cities, while 49% oppose it. Support is overwhelming among Texas Republicans (82% total support, with 51% strongly supporting). Conversely, 88% of Democrats oppose this use of the military (77% strongly oppose). Independents oppose the deployments, 45% to 26%. (In the poll’s news awareness battery, 85% had heard “a lot” (60%) or some (25%) about “the use of the U.S. military for law enforcement efforts in American cities.”)

When military deployments were put in a context closer to home, Texas voters were somewhat less supportive of “the deployment of Texas national guard for law enforcement in American cities outside of Texas.” Overall, 41% supported these deployments, while slightly more than half of Texas voters, 51%, were opposed. More than three-quarters (77%) of Republicans were supportive, while 16% were opposed. Among Democrats, 88% were opposed (81% strongly), while 8% were supportive. Independents were also largely opposed (26% support, 60% oppose).

The poll also included a battery of questions about the likelihood “that the federal government would order the U.S. military to engage in” activities that might violate Texans’ rights. The responses conveyed a striking expectation that the military would violate fundamental rights.

  • 70% believed it was “very” (43%)  or “somewhat likely” (27%) that the military would arrest political protesters.
  • 52% believed it was “very” (25%)  or “somewhat likely” (27%) that the military would be ordered to impose martial law.
  • 51% believed it was “very” (30%)  or “somewhat likely” (21%) likely that the military would violate property rights.
  • 34% believed it was “very” (16%) or “somewhat likely” (18%) that the military would confiscate firearms.

These questions were identical to a set of questions asked in a June 2015 survey pegged to Gov. Abbott’s ordered oversight of the U.S. military maneuvers that took place in Texas known as Operation Jade Helm 15. At that time, with Democrat Barack Obama in the White House, Texans expressed a greater expectation about the potential confiscation of firearms (43% in 2015, compared to 34% now), while today, significantly more Texans believe that the military will arrest political protesters, 70%, than 10 years ago in 2015, when 52% thought this was a real possibility.

Ten years ago, a majority of Republicans said it was very or somewhat likely that each of the listed violations might occur. Today, the overwhelming majority of Texas Republicans think this is unlikely in all cases except the arrest of political protesters, which 53% of Republicans say is likely, down from the 63% who said the same in 2015.

 

How likely do you think it is that the federal government would...
(October 2025 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Republicans Democrats
  October 2025 June 2015 October 2025 June 2015 October 2025 June 2015
  Total likely / Total unlikely Total likely / Total unlikely Total likely / Total unlikely Total likely / Total unlikely Total likely / Total unlikely Total likely / Total unlikely
Arrest political protesters 70 / 22 52 / 39 53 / 39 63 / 32 88 / 8 38 / 51
Impose martial law in Texas or any other U.S. state 52 / 37 44 / 46 28 / 62 55 / 40 79 / 14 31 / 57
Violate citizens’ property rights 51 / 44 50 / 41 22 / 71 64 / 41 80 / 14 33 / 56
Confiscate the firearms of U.S. residents. 34 / 57 43 / 48 19 / 75 57 / 39 47 / 44 25 / 65

While the Trump administration’s justification for deploying military forces to cities has drawn on characterizations of American cities as “unsafe places” (and other more provocative formulations), Texas voters did not report any widespread feelings of being unsafe when asked, “how safe do you feel in the area where you live?”

A near consensus, 91%, reported feeling either “very safe” (43%) or “somewhat safe” (48%), while only 8% reported feeling “somewhat unsafe” (5%) or “very unsafe” (3%). There were no major partisan differences in responses, with Republicans somewhat more likely to report feeling “very safe” (49%) than Democrats (40%) or independents (32%). 

Urban dwellers were less likely to feel “very safe” (34%) than either rural or suburban residents (56% and 44% “very safe,” respectively), but there was very little difference in the shares in each area who felt unsafe (urban 5%, suburban 4%, rural 2%).

Immigration

As the emphasis of both national and state political leaders has shifted from border security to high-profile, aggressive efforts to increase arrests and deportations, the poll found evidence of a slight weakening of support for universal and immediate deportation of undocumented immigrants.

While the poll finds 91% of Texans having heard either “a lot” (71%) or “some” (20%) about the deportation of undocumented immigrants by the federal government, Texans themselves were nearly split when asked whether they agree or disagree with the immediate deportation of all undocumented immigrants. The share agreeing, 50%, was the lowest recorded measure since February of 2021 (including 10 surveys), while the share disagreeing, 44%, was the highest recorded over the same time period, increasing by 10 points since one year ago in October 2024 polling.

Among Republicans, 86% agree with a policy of immediate deportation, while 10% disagree. Among Democrats, 17% agree, while 78% disagree.

Asked about legal immigration, a plurality of Texans, 37%, said that the country allows too many people to immigrate here legally, while 31% said that we allow about the right amount, and only 16% said that we allow too few. Among Republicans, 61% say that the country allows too many people to immigrate here legally, while among Democrats, the plurality, 44%, say that we allow the right amount of immigration, with 13% saying that there’s too much legal immigration, and 27% saying that there isn’t enough.

Asked to assess a list of threats facing the United States, and then to identify the biggest threat, immigration topped the list for Texas Republicans, with 54% labeling it an “extremely serious” threat (though notably down from June 2024, when 65% labeled immigration a serious threat), and 20%, the plurality, identifying it as the biggest threat facing the country.

Asked about the increasing racial and ethnic diversity of Texas, Texas voters were largely split, with the plurality, 38%, indicating that these changes are a cause for optimism, a third, 33%, indicating that they are a cause for concern, and 29% saying that they don’t know or expressing no opinion.

While a majority of Democrats, 55%, said that increasing racial and ethnic diversity is a cause for optimism, nearly a third, 29%, said it was a cause for concern. Among Republicans, the plurality, 39%, said that they had no opinion, while 35% said it was a cause for concern, and 26% said it was a cause for optimism.

Freedom of speech

Restrictions on the freedom of speech were cited by 48% of Texans as an extremely serious threat to the United States, including 71% of Democrats, 54% of independents, and only 26% of Republicans. The quarter of Republicans who said free speech restrictions pose an extremely serious threat declined notably since June 2024 and August 2023 polling, when 42% and 57% of Republicans, respectively, made the same assessment.

Asked how secure free speech rights are in America today, only 7% of Texans said “completely secure,” with a paltry 15% saying that they are “very secure.” A plurality, 41%, said that free speech rights are “not at all secure.”

Republicans were more likely to say that free speech rights are secure than were Democrats, with 39% of the former, and 6% of the latter saying that free speech rights are either completely or very secure. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats, 64%, and a majority of independents, 51%, said that free speech rights are not at all secure.

Potentially mirroring these results, when Texans were asked how comfortable, or uncomfortable, they are expressing their political views among different groups of people, in different situations, and in different forms, Republicans expressed significantly more comfort than did Democrats.

Overall, Texans express the most comfort expressing their political views around close friends (77%), members of their immediate family (76%), and members of their extended family (61%). Discomfort exceeds comfort in these interactions at work (32% comfortable, 40% uncomfortable); on social media (41% / 46%); in public settings (38% / 55%); and around strangers (33% / 59%).

Notably, given the political rhetoric around free speech rights that has tended to use the idea of the censorship of conservative voices as a rationale for recent policy actions in government, media, and education, Republicans expressed more comfort than Democrats expressing their political views around people they don’t know (40% vs. 27%); in public settings (45% vs. 32%); and at work (35% vs 29%). Republicans and Democrats expressed equal degrees of comfort expressing themselves on social media (43%).

Vaccine safety/efficacy

The October survey also asked Texans their views on the effectiveness and  safety of vaccines, as well as whether parents should be required to vaccinate their children.

Overall, 67% of Texans said that they consider vaccines to be safe, with only a quarter saying that they believe vaccines are entirely safe. Likewise, 70% of Texans believe vaccines are effective, only 24% say that they are entirely effective.

Looked at by partisanship, 46% of Democrats say that they believe vaccines are entirely safe, with 44% saying that they are entirely effective, but among Republicans, only 8% rate vaccines as completely safe, or as completely effective, respectively. Both represent a decline in ratings of the safety and efficacy of vaccines among Texas Republicans since the question was last asked one year ago in December 2024 polling.

This increasing suspicion towards vaccines is most likely reflected in an oft-asked question about vaccination requirements for children. The October poll found 65% of Texans saying that parents should be required to vaccinate their children against common childhood diseases, while 22% disagreed. This survey question has been asked eight times since February 2015, and the October poll finds the lowest share of Texans endorsing vaccine requirements of kids, and the highest share opposing such requirements.

Among Democrats, 85% endorse required vaccinations, while among Republicans 50% do, with 35% opposed. A majority of independents, 57%, support vaccination requirements, while 22% are opposed.

Keywords: 2026 election Economy Military Texas Economy U.S. Congress U.S. Supreme Court vaccines Colin Allred Dan Patrick Donald Trump Greg Abbott James Talarico Jasmine Crockett John Cornyn Ken Paxton Wesley Hunt