Ted Cruz

• Beating on Beto: The Logic of the Cruz Campaign’s Negative Turn in the Texas Senate Race

  September 05, 2018 | By: Joshua Blank, Jim Henson

  Over the last week and a half, the Ted Cruz campaign and its allies have stepped up their negative attacks against Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke (though with a bit of a stumble out of the blocks). The Cruz campaign’s blows against Beto have gotten both tougher and more voluminous as the campaign sees close public (and perhaps internal?) poll numbers and, within that polling, a large share of Republican voters seemingly unaware of the threat to their party’s hegemony skateboarding their way.

• 2018 Election Polling in Texas

  August 22, 2018 | By: Joshua Blank, Jim Henson

  This post will be updated regularly to reflect the release of new public polls.

  Most recent update: 10/24/18

• U.S. Senate Trial Ballot (June 2018)

  Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"

• Ted Cruz Approval (June 2018)

  Respondents were asked, "How would you rate the job Ted Cruz is doing as U.S. Senator? Would you say that you…"

• Ted Cruz Favorability (June 2018)

  Respondents were asked, "Please tell us whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neither favorable nor unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Ted Cruz."

• Beliefs About Discrimination in America Color Views of Supreme Court’s Masterpiece

  June 07, 2018 | By: Jim Henson, Joshua Blank

  This week, the Supreme Court released its much anticipated decision in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Civil Rights Commission, narrowly ruling for the plaintiffs and spurring both sides in the debate over LGBTQ rights to claim larger victories than justified by the decision.  While LGBTQ rights were clearly being tested, beliefs about discrimination in America lurk just below the surface of responses to the decision — and those beliefs vary markedly among partisans.

• Governor Abbott (Still) Tops Texans' Evaluations of Elected Officials*

  April 26, 2018 | By: Jim Henson, Joshua Blank

  In addition to its focus on Texans’ views of the issues facing the state a, the University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll regularly gages Texans' assessments of the state’s exclusively Republican leadership. As the political class in the state readies itself for the 2018 Elections and the 2019 legislative session, there have been small but notable shifts in voters’ estimations of their elected leaders’ job performance over the last few years.

• A look at Spring Polling vs. Fall Voting in Texas

  April 20, 2018 | By: Joshua Blank, Jim Henson

   we've compiled statewide polling results from April through July for elections going back to 2010 for President, Senator, and Governor. While it's certainly fair to say that Cruz's lead over O'Rourke is not as stout as one might expect given historical polling (in the polling data below, the lead for the GOP candidate at this point in the election cycle is 9 points on average), there's little evidence from the eventual election results that Cruz's lead isn't likely to grow as the campaign season begins in earnest, let alone when voters actually begin to cast their ballots. This is, of course, dependent on how much past patterns hold in the present and near future.

   

• Pragmatic Approach to Changes to the U.S. Census Trumped by Nativist Attitudes in Texas GOP

  March 30, 2018 | By: Jim Henson, Joshua Blank

  Given the array of attitudes toward immigration and citizenship among the voters who dominate both the selection of GOP statewide candidates as well as the selection of winners in the general election, these elected officials' remain eternally vigilant in their efforts to remain on the right side of the electorate – and each other – on all things related to immigration. The result is that they continue to channel the nativist impulses that course through their base, for better or for worse when it comes to major policy consequences of the Trump Administration's proposed changes to the U.S. Census.

• Pausing for a Clear-Eyed Look at the Cruz-O'Rourke Match Up

  March 07, 2018 | By: Jim Henson, Joshua Blank

  One might forgive the hyperbole (at least at this early stage) given the national press’s frequent (if not uniform) infatuation with O’Rourke. For a more measured look of where this race starts, data from several University of Texas / Texas Tribune Polls, including the most recent one conducted last month, sheds light on where the two Senate candidates stand among Texas’ voters.