The State of the Union address is a chance for presidents to frame their successes, condition their failures, and overall, try to affect the trajectory of one’s presidency by shaping public awareness and congressional support for the president’s agenda. (Research suggests that presidents’ success in meeting these goals is mixed, though as with many things regarding the presidency, the evidence is pretty limited.)
President Joe Biden faces challenges on multiple fronts that make it highly unlikely, or at least highly challenging, for this year's State of the Union address to overcome a broadly negative political mood in a midterm election year. The reception of Biden’s speech will likely be powerfully shaped by broad disapproval of political leaders and, well, the literal state of the union. Even the context of writing the address has likely been extra stressful for Biden and his team this year. They will be required to rewrite a speech they have been working on for weeks to reflect the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the global geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian crises now unfolding, which have the world looking to the U.S., and so to Biden, for leadership. Being the president of the United States is an honor and a great job, so no one should feel sorry for Biden. But it’s a tough gig this year.
The address will land among a Texas audience largely negative about the state of the country, the national economy, and American democracy writ large, in a midterm election year in which his party is widely expected to take a drubbing absent some fundamental change in the political landscape.
Poll | Right Direction | Wrong Track |
---|---|---|
October 2009 | 35% | 59% |
February 2010 | 31% | 56% |
May 2010 | 27% | 62% |
September 2010 | 26% | 63% |
October 2010 | 25% | 64% |
February 2011 | 26% | 59% |
May 2011 | 24% | 63% |
October 2011 | 14% | 75% |
February 2012 | 28% | 61% |
May 2012 | 25% | 61% |
October 2012 | 31% | 58% |
February 2013 | 29% | 62% |
June 2013 | 28% | 60% |
October 2013 | 20% | 69% |
February 2014 | 25% | 63% |
June 2014 | 23% | 65% |
October 2014 | 25% | 65% |
February 2015 | 26% | 59% |
June 2015 | 23% | 64% |
November 2015 | 22% | 68% |
February 2016 | 22% | 66% |
June 2016 | 18% | 70% |
October 2016 | 22% | 67% |
February 2017 | 39% | 49% |
June 2017 | 34% | 54% |
October 2017 | 29% | 61% |
February 2018 | 39% | 50% |
June 2018 | 41% | 47% |
October 2018 | 42% | 49% |
February 2019 | 39% | 53% |
June 2019 | 40% | 50% |
October 2019 | 37% | 54% |
February 2020 | 40% | 49% |
April 2020 | 39% | 52% |
June 2020 | 30% | 62% |
October 2020 | 29% | 62% |
February 2021 | 31% | 56% |
April 2021 | 32% | 57% |
June 2021 | 31% | 57% |
August 2021 | 25% | 64% |
October 2021 | 20% | 70% |
February 2022 | 23% | 66% |
April 2022 | 23% | 66% |
June 2022 | 16% | 76% |
August 2022 | 21% | 69% |
October 2022 | 21% | 69% |
December 2022 | 23% | 65% |
February 2023 | 25% | 65% |
April 2023 | 21% | 68% |
June 2023 | 22% | 70% |
August 2023 | 22% | 68% |
October 2023 | 20% | 71% |
December 2023 | 24% | 67% |
February 2024 | 28% | 62% |
April 2024 | 29% | 62% |
June 2024 | 25% | 66% |
August 2024 | 29% | 61% |
October 2024 | 26% | 63% |
Poll | Better | Same Compared to a Year Ago | Worse |
---|---|---|---|
October 2009 | 24% | 16% | 59% |
February 2010 | 28% | 19% | 52% |
May 2010 | 28% | 24% | 47% |
September 2010 | 23% | 21% | 54% |
October 2010 | 22% | 20% | 56% |
February 2011 | 27% | 30% | 41% |
May 2011 | 22% | 26% | 49% |
October 2011 | 14% | 25% | 59% |
February 2012 | 29% | 30% | 39% |
May 2012 | 28% | 29% | 39% |
October 2012 | 32% | 25% | 42% |
June 2013 | 35% | 31% | 33% |
October 2013 | 25% | 25% | 49% |
February 2014 | 29% | 28% | 40% |
June 2014 | 31% | 26% | 41% |
October 2014 | 31% | 30% | 37% |
February 2015 | 36% | 33% | 29% |
June 2015 | 31% | 33% | 34% |
November 2015 | 32% | 28% | 37% |
February 2016 | 30% | 27% | 40% |
June 2016 | 26% | 29% | 40% |
October 2016 | 28% | 29% | 40% |
February 2017 | 40% | 36% | 20% |
June 2017 | 42% | 30% | 25% |
October 2017 | 43% | 33% | 22% |
February 2018 | 53% | 26% | 19% |
June 2018 | 51% | 23% | 22% |
October 2018 | 51% | 26% | 19% |
February 2019 | 49% | 23% | 24% |
June 2019 | 47% | 23% | 26% |
October 2019 | 45% | 24% | 24% |
February 2020 | 48% | 25% | 24% |
April 2020 | 21% | 11% | 64% |
June 2020 | 17% | 10% | 70% |
October 2020 | 17% | 13% | 67% |
February 2021 | 15% | 20% | 61% |
April 2021 | 31% | 22% | 43% |
June 2021 | 34% | 19% | 43% |
August 2021 | 30% | 19% | 47% |
October 2021 | 25% | 18% | 55% |
February 2022 | 24% | 19% | 53% |
April 2022 | 21% | 15% | 63% |
June 2022 | 14% | 11% | 73% |
August 2022 | 20% | 17% | 60% |
October 2022 | 17% | 17% | 62% |
December 2022 | 20% | 18% | 59% |
February 2023 | 24% | 19% | 53% |
April 2023 | 23% | 19% | 55% |
June 2023 | 23% | 22% | 54% |
August 2023 | 25% | 19% | 54% |
October 2023 | 23% | 20% | 55% |
December 2023 | 28% | 21% | 49% |
February 2024 | 33% | 22% | 43% |
April 2024 | 28% | 23% | 48% |
June 2024 | 28% | 20% | 50% |
August 2024 | 27% | 23% | 49% |
October 2024 | 27% | 23% | 48% |
category | Total |
---|---|
Extremely well | 4% |
Very well | 9% |
Somewhat well | 23% |
Somewhat poorly | 26% |
Very poorly | 14% |
Extremely poorly | 15% |
Don't know/No opinion | 8% |
category | Total |
---|---|
Approve strongly | 4% |
Approve somewhat | 17% |
Neither approve nor disapprove | 18% |
Disapprove somewhat | 21% |
Disapprove strongly | 37% |
Don't know | 4% |
Overall, Biden enters his State of the Union address with 52% of Texas voters disapproving of his job performance and only 36% approving, according to the February 2022 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll. The president’s honeymoon period (such as it was) was brief in Texas, lasting from the time he assumed office in early 2021 until late spring. In February and March 2021 polling, roughly equal shares of Texas voters said they approved or disapproved of Biden’s job performance. By April, a crack emerged that has slowly expanded to something of chasm.
category | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
---|---|---|---|
February 2021 | 45% | 44% | 11% |
March 2021 | 44% | 43% | 12% |
April 2021 | 44% | 46% | 11% |
June 2021 | 43% | 47% | 10% |
August 2021 | 40% | 51% | 9% |
October 2021 | 35% | 55% | 11% |
February 2022 | 36% | 52% | 11% |
April 2022 | 37% | 54% | 9% |
June 2022 | 35% | 55% | 11% |
August 2022 | 40% | 52% | 9% |
October 2022 | 39% | 52% | 10% |
December 2022 | 42% | 50% | 8% |
February 2023 | 41% | 50% | 10% |
April 2023 | 40% | 49% | 11% |
June 2023 | 38% | 50% | 12% |
August 2023 | 38% | 52% | 9% |
October 2023 | 37% | 53% | 11% |
December 2023 | 38% | 54% | 8% |
February 2024 | 42% | 50% | 8% |
April 2024 | 43% | 51% | 6% |
June 2024 | 39% | 42% | 10% |
August 2024 | 39% | 52% | 9% |
October 2024 | 37% | 53% | 10% |
Texas Democrats have remained behind the president, though not as firmly as at the beginning of his term. In four surveys conducted between February 2021 and June 2021, at least 87% of Democrats said they approved of Biden’s job performance. But in three surveys since August, no more than 76% approved. More troubling for the president, the intensity of that approval has waned significantly, with 64% of Democrats “approving strongly” upon Biden’s assumption of office in February 2021 polling, and at least 50% approving strongly through June. In February 2022, only 33% of Democrats said that they approve strongly of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.
Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
---|---|---|---|
Approve strongly | 33% | 6% | 2% |
Approve somewhat | 43% | 11% | 4% |
Neither approve nor disapprove | 15% | 15% | 3% |
Disapprove somewhat | 5% | 17% | 9% |
Disapprove strongly | 4% | 46% | 82% |
Don't know | 1% | 5% | 0% |
As the graphic above illustrates, views among Republicans are overwhelmingly negative (though not significantly different from Democratic views of Donald Trump at the same point in his presidency). Since the beginning of his presidency, no fewer than 80% of Republican voters disapproved of Biden’s job performance, including 91% of Republicans in the last three surveys conducted by the Texas Politics Project in August 2021, October 2021, and February 2022.
category | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
---|---|---|---|
February 2021 | 12% | 80% | 9% |
March 2021 | 7% | 82% | 11% |
April 2021 | 7% | 86% | 7% |
June 2021 | 9% | 84% | 7% |
August 2021 | 6% | 91% | 2% |
October 2021 | 5% | 91% | 4% |
February 2022 | 6% | 91% | 3% |
April 2022 | 6% | 87% | 6% |
June 2022 | 7% | 88% | 4% |
August 2022 | 9% | 88% | 4% |
October 2022 | 8% | 90% | 2% |
December 2022 | 9% | 88% | 3% |
February 2023 | 7% | 91% | 2% |
April 2023 | 10% | 86% | 4% |
June 2023 | 7% | 88% | 5% |
August 2023 | 5% | 91% | 3% |
October 2023 | 8% | 85% | 7% |
December 2023 | 9% | 85% | 5% |
February 2024 | 8% | 85% | 7% |
April 2024 | 12% | 84% | 4% |
June 2024 | 9% | 85% | 6% |
August 2024 | 8% | 88% | 4% |
October 2024 | 6% | 88% | 6% |
More troubling for Biden and Democrats than the usual cross-partisan vitriol is his increasingly poor standing among non-partisans. Among true independents (those voters who neither identify with neither the Democratic or Republican parties nor lean toward either one), 63% disapproved of Biden’s job performance in February, part of a consistent trend of increasingly negative evaluations among a voting group whose views only grow in importance as the state becomes more competitive.
category | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
---|---|---|---|
February 2021 | 28% | 49% | 24% |
March 2021 | 32% | 40% | 27% |
April 2021 | 30% | 43% | 26% |
June 2021 | 27% | 52% | 21% |
August 2021 | 29% | 52% | 20% |
October 2021 | 20% | 57% | 23% |
February 2022 | 17% | 63% | 20% |
April 2022 | 18% | 61% | 21% |
June 2022 | 14% | 66% | 20% |
August 2022 | 14% | 71% | 16% |
October 2022 | 23% | 67% | 10% |
December 2022 | 17% | 64% | 18% |
February 2023 | 21% | 68% | 12% |
April 2023 | 24% | 54% | 21% |
June 2023 | 16% | 70% | 14% |
August 2023 | 18% | 67% | 15% |
October 2023 | 16% | 63% | 17% |
December 2023 | 27% | 61% | 13% |
February 2024 | 23% | 69% | 8% |
April 2024 | 12% | 77% | 11% |
June 2024 | 19% | 66% | 15% |
August 2024 | 25% | 58% | 17% |
October 2024 | 18% | 64% | 18% |
To the extent that Biden entered office in a better position than he currently finds himself, it’s reasonable to assume that at least some of this goodwill was attached to views of Biden’s likely response to the coronavirus pandemic – a subject he’s sure to touch on in the State of the Union address. From February 2021 through June 2021, between 48% and 49% of Texans said they approved of Joe Biden’s handling of the response to the coronavirus, with 35% to 36% saying that they disapproved. Since June, Biden has seen a significant drop in assessments of his handling of the pandemic, with between 47% and 51% now disapproving (48% in February 2022), and no more than 44% approving (and only 40% in the most recent survey).
Unsurprisingly, Republican negativity to the Biden response has increased over this period, from 66% disapproving in February of last year to 80% in February of this year. Independent disapproval has grown from 32% in February 2021 to 56% in February 2022. And while Democrats remain behind the president on COVID, the distribution and intensity of that opinion is waning, with 91% approving of Biden’s handling of COVID in February 2021 (and 70% approving strongly) to 75% approving in February 2022 (and only 39% approving strongly).
category | Total |
---|---|
Approve strongly | 34% |
Approve somewhat | 15% |
Neither approve nor disapprove | 14% |
Disapprove somewhat | 7% |
Disapprove strongly | 29% |
Don't know | 2% |
category | Total |
---|---|
Approve strongly | 20% |
Approve somewhat | 20% |
Neither approve nor disapprove | 10% |
Disapprove somewhat | 10% |
Disapprove strongly | 38% |
Don't know | 3% |
As the conversations around COVID continue to shift and attention continues to recede (should we be so lucky), economic issues are moving to center stage. In the February UT/TXP survey, 88% of Texas voters said that they had noticed price increases based on recent purchases of goods and services. Among those who noticed price increases, 92% indicated a negative impact on their current financial situation (51% a major impact, 41% a minor impact). When asked to evaluate the job Joe Biden is doing on the economy, only 30% said they approved, with 54% disapproving (43% strongly).
category | Total |
---|---|
Approve strongly | 14% |
Approve somewhat | 16% |
Neither approve nor disapprove | 13% |
Disapprove somewhat | 11% |
Disapprove strongly | 43% |
Don't know | 3% |
The pandemic and its ongoing economic consequences would be enough to occupy the agenda of most administrations, but the issue landscape is much larger than this, and doesn’t bode well for Biden so far.
category | Total |
---|---|
The coronavirus | 40% |
Transportation & infrastructure | 35% |
Voting & elections | 31% |
The economy | 30% |
Foreign policy | 30% |
Climate change | 29% |
Crime & public safety | 26% |
Immigration & border security | 25% |
Overall, Biden finds himself underwater on all eight of the issue areas where we estimated Texans’ opinions about the president’s job performance, with a greater share of voters disapproving than approving. While a majority of Democrats were willing to endorse Biden’s work on every issue, the share expressing disapproval across a number of key policy areas poses a challenge for the party heading into the midterms. In particular, one in five Democrats disapprove of the job Biden is doing on an issues that can’t be ignored, either nationally or in Texas: the economy, and immigration and border security.
Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
---|---|---|---|
The coronavirus | 75% | 29% | 10% |
Transportation & infrastructure | 67% | 21% | 8% |
Voting & elections | 62% | 18% | 7% |
The economy | 59% | 22% | 5% |
Foreign policy | 58% | 19% | 7% |
Climate change | 59% | 17% | 7% |
Crime & public safety | 54% | 15% | 5% |
Immigration & border security | 51% | 13% | 5% |
Republicans are overwhelmingly negative in their evaluations of Biden across each issue area, with at least 70% disapproving on each, and 88% disapproving of Biden’s handling of the border. Biden doesn’t fare much better among independents either, with more of those voters disapproving than approving on each of the 8 issues tested. Biden fares worst on two issues long expected to be centerpieces of Republican campaigns — immigration and border security, and crime and public safety — and in an area front and center in recent days — foreign policy. We’ll see if attitudes shift in that area as the unpredictable events continue to unfold.
Looming over matters of policy and the usual assessments likely to affect the reception of Biden’s address, a sizable share of Texans don’t think Biden legitimately won the 2020 election. If you don’t think Biden was legitimately elected (36% of Texans, according to the most recent UT/TxPP poll), it seems unlikely anything the man says is likely to move you in a positive direction.
category | Total |
---|---|
Yes | 53% |
No | 36% |
Not sure | 11% |