January 10, 2022
As campaigns and observers attempt to figure out where the most competitive legislative races will be in 2022, we can assess the change in competitiveness in electoral districts after redistricting by comparing the change in top-of-the-ticket 2020 vote shares won by major party candidates with the same results calculated using the new district lines. Below is a table that shows the percentage vote share for Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election in each of Texas' State Senate Districts, both before and after redistricting. The same data is also available for state house and congressional districts. (Source: Data for this table was requested and received from the Texas Legislative Council on December 7, 2021)
| Old Maps (2011) | New Maps (2021) | ||||||
| District | Biden | Trump | Trump Advantage | Biden | Trump | Trump Advantage | Change in Trump Advantage |
| 1 | 25.5 | 73.3 | 47.8 | 24.9 | 73.9 | 49 | 1.20 |
| 2 | 39.4 | 59.2 | 19.8 | 41.6 | 57 | 15.4 | -4.40 |
| 3 | 20.6 | 78.4 | 57.8 | 26 | 72.9 | 46.9 | -10.90 |
| 4 | 33.2 | 65.5 | 32.3 | 33.8 | 64.8 | 31 | -1.30 |
| 5 | 43.4 | 54.5 | 11.1 | 39.8 | 58.2 | 18.4 | 7.30 |
| 6 | 66.1 | 32.6 | -33.5 | 66.1 | 32.7 | -33.4 | 0.10 |
| 7 | 44.1 | 54.5 | 10.4 | 41.2 | 57.4 | 16.2 | 5.80 |
| 8 | 51.3 | 46.9 | -4.4 | 43.1 | 55.1 | 12 | 16.40 |
| 9 | 48.3 | 50 | 1.7 | 42.6 | 55.7 | 13.1 | 11.40 |
| 10 | 53.1 | 45.4 | -7.7 | 41.4 | 57.2 | 15.8 | 23.50 |
| 11 | 40.4 | 58 | 17.6 | 40.6 | 57.9 | 17.3 | -0.30 |
| 12 | 43.2 | 55.2 | 12 | 43.3 | 55.2 | 11.9 | -0.10 |
| 13 | 80.8 | 18.1 | -62.7 | 78.1 | 20.8 | -57.3 | 5.40 |
| 14 | 70.8 | 27 | -43.8 | 74.4 | 23.4 | -51 | -7.20 |
| 15 | 64.5 | 34.1 | -30.4 | 64.9 | 33.6 | -31.3 | -0.90 |
| 16 | 56 | 42.5 | -13.5 | 64.4 | 34.1 | -30.3 | -16.80 |
| 17 | 51.6 | 47 | -4.6 | 40.7 | 57.9 | 17.2 | 21.80 |
| 18 | 36.8 | 61.9 | 25.1 | 39.5 | 59.2 | 19.7 | -5.40 |
| 19 | 53.3 | 45.3 | -8 | 55.8 | 42.7 | -13.1 | -5.10 |
| 20 | 52.2 | 46.6 | -5.6 | 54.3 | 44.6 | -9.7 | -4.10 |
| 21 | 53.2 | 45.3 | -7.9 | 57.7 | 40.7 | -17 | -9.10 |
| 22 | 33.2 | 65.4 | 32.2 | 38.3 | 60.2 | 21.9 | -10.30 |
| 23 | 80.9 | 17.8 | -63.1 | 77.5 | 21.2 | -56.3 | 6.80 |
| 24 | 32.3 | 65.9 | 33.6 | 39.4 | 58.7 | 19.3 | -14.30 |
| 25 | 45.1 | 53.3 | 8.2 | 40.1 | 58.3 | 18.2 | 10.00 |
| 26 | 66.4 | 32 | -34.4 | 64.9 | 33.4 | -31.5 | 2.90 |
| 27 | 57.3 | 41.6 | -15.7 | 51.7 | 47.1 | -4.6 | 11.10 |
| 28 | 25.3 | 73.3 | 48 | 25.8 | 72.7 | 46.9 | -1.10 |
| 29 | 66.5 | 32 | -34.5 | 65.2 | 33.3 | -31.9 | 2.60 |
| 30 | 26.5 | 71.9 | 45.4 | 37.6 | 60.8 | 23.2 | -22.20 |
| 31 | 20.3 | 78.2 | 57.9 | 20.4 | 78.2 | 57.8 | -0.10 |