Rick Perry found himself back in the national media for a couple of heartbeats by endorsing Texas Senator Ted Cruz in the Republican presidential primary on Sunday, as reported initially by Politico. While Perry's endorsement isn’t exactly a political shocker, it does, in addition to getting Cruz into the news cycle in a story that isn’t also about Donald Trump, serve to send some signals to Republicans both nationally and in Texas.

While Rick Perry’s national stature among Republicans has never been the same since the unfortunate demise of his 2012 presidential nomination bid, it nonetheless has some meaning in the midst of the GOP candidates’ efforts to put together a winning coalition of both GOP voters and party elites. 

Perry’s bid for national leadership has always rested in his ability to appeal to conservative factions of the voting base, including Christian conservatives, while also invoking his unabashedly pro-business record as governor. His historic association with popular positions among Republican primary voters – especially evidenced in his approach to Christianity in the public square and his embrace of the Tenth Amendment and states’ rights – helps give context to the subtle message implied by his endorsement: that one of the state governors originally seen as one of the “can do” candidates – rather than a channel for voter anger – is choosing to back Cruz.  

This comes at a time when both the Cruz and Trump campaigns are sending layered messages to different national constituencies. The surface battle remains focused on extolling the virtues of iconoclasm and a heroic leader prepared to buck the system in Washington. Yet as party elites – the so-called Republican establishment – begin to pick sides, both campaigns are seeking to quietly attract resource-laden elites without alienating the GOP base apparently disaffected from their stodgier party comrades.

Rick Perry can play a small but discernible role in this dynamic, while also reinforcing the home front here in Texas. Texans never warmed to Perry as a presidential candidate, and during his relatively short time in the 2016 contest, his numbers were poor even in his home state. He had few supporters to divvy up among the remaining candidates; at the time of Perry's exit, Cruz was the plurality winner of Perry second choice votes, though the contours of the race have of course changed dramatically since June and the rise of Trump.

However, by the time he was reelected for a third time in 2010, Texas GOP primary voters had warmly embraced him. The high point of this courtship was his crushing defeat of Kay Bailey Hutchison in that year’s GOP primary, a reflection of the relative strengths of each candidate and their campaigns, but also a harbinger of things to come in the Texas GOP. Perry rode the just-rising wave of Tea Party discontent to victory, but less appreciated was the way that GOP business interests were also forced to make a choice. Many chose Perry, and those who didn’t hastened to make amends after their mistake.

Overall, Perry’s job approval numbers in Texas were never overwhelming, but the overall numbers are deceptive.

These seemingly mediocre job approval ratings hid the fact the Perry presided over an intensification of polarized party politics in the state that he helped accelerate with his determination to largely eschew bi-partisan politics and to appeal directly to the Republican base. This paid dividends in a state dominated by the Republican Party, and by the time he left office, his job approval rating among Republicans was 77 percent positive – thirty points higher than his rating among all Texas voters. Voters are of course fickle, and his favorability rating were much lower in February 2015 – out of sight, out of mind.  None the less, the overall trend of Republican attitudes suggest a wellspring of fond memories of Perry as long as Cruz doesn’t overplay Perry’s position as an old favorite.

[[nid:1298]]

It seems likely that to the extent that Cruz's opponents try to devalue Perry’s endorsement, the indictment still hanging over him might be a talking point. While this could potentially cloud the value of Cruz having a positive story in the national news cycle, it’s unlikely to have much of an impact on Perry’s value in Texas as both a headline endorsement and, later on, as a surrogate with the March 1st primary nearing. While many Texans, including Republicans, reported paying attention to the indictment in our February 2015 poll, they viewed it through partisan lenses (a common phenomenon). Governor Perry’s framing of the indictment as partisan persecution seemed to take hold with Texas Republicans, 75 percent of whom thought he was innocent when we asked in October of 2014, when coverage of the case was peaking. His value as a Cruz campaigner in a GOP primary is unlikely to be hurt by his lingering legal issues, unless of course there is some movement in the case not in Perry’s favor during the campaign.

[[nid:1274]]