President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit an Apple facility in Austin this week. We’ve rounded up the most recent polling data from the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll on Texans’ attitudes toward the president.
Presidential Job Approval
The president’s overall job approval is in net-negative territory in Texas.
|Neither approve nor disapprove||4%|
Job approval is, unsurprisingly, polarized along party line, with disapproval among Democrats more intense (83% strongly disapprove) than approval among Republicans (61% strongly disapprove). Independents as a group disapprove of the president’s job performance on balance, with 41% approving and 51% disapproving.
|Neither approve nor disapprove||3%||8%||4%|
Approval in Texas reflects strong rural support with more divided opinions in urban and suburban areas of the state.
|Neither approve nor disapprove||6%||4%||1%|
The president’s job approval has remained remarkably consistent over the first three years of his presidency in Texas, buttressed by intense partisan support (among Republicans) and opposition (among Democrats).
With impeachment hearings looming when data collection for the October poll (October 18-27) took place, we asked a battery of items regarding attitudes toward the impeachment process and the major institutional actors involved.
Overall, a slim majority of Texans thought Congress was justified in “conducting impeachment investigations into actions Donald Trump has taken while president?"
|Don't know/No opinion||6%|
Responses to this question again showed polarization along party lines, with slightly more consensus among Democrats than among Republicans. While the lower level of intensity among Republicans doesn’t appear to be decisive in any way, it provides an interesting baseline moving into the 2020 election.
|Don't know/No opinion||4%||11%||5%|
As a group, women were less likely to have settled on a view of undertaking the impeachment process than men.
|Don't know/No opinion||3%||8%|
When asked about whether Trump should be removed from office – the possible consequence of impeachment – based on current knowledge, Texas voters are effectively evenly divided.
|Don't know/No opinion||5%|
The familiar partisan split is present, though with a 5-percentage-point drop in Democratic support for removal.
|Don't know/No opinion||4%||9%||4%|
Removal of Trump from office has much more support in urban areas, and support of the president not being removed before he has served out his term is strongest among rural Texans.
|Don't know/No opinion||5%||4%||5%|
Both the gender gap in support for the president, in part a function of gender differences in party identification, and the increased willingness of women to not take a position in polling, are evident on this item.
|Don't know/No opinion||2%||7%|
Approval ratings of how President Trump is responding to the impeachment investigation track closely with his job approval ratings, though overall assessment in this area is more negative overall.
|Neither approve nor disapprove||10%|
Partisan assessments resemble other assessments of Trump: Republicans are overwhelmingly positive, but less intense so that the negative assessments of Democrats.
|Neither approve nor disapprove||5%||22%||11%|
Net approval of Trump’s response to impeachment is positive (+11) among men, very negative (-20) among women.
|Neither approve nor disapprove||9%||11%|
When asked about their vote intentions for the 2020 Election, 48% of respondents said that they would definitely (40%) or probably (8%) vote to re-elect Donald Trump, while 52% said that they would probably (6%) or definitely (46%) vote for someone else.
|Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump||40%|
|Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump||8%|
|Probably vote for someone else||6%|
|Definitely vote for someone else||46%|
And while Democrats and Republicans, unsurprisingly, line up in opposite corners on their intentions with respect to the President’s re-election, the newly, (potentially) competitive political environment in Texas makes the views of political independents more consequential for the contest. Among this group, 38% said that they would be supporting the President’s re-election, while 63% said that they would be voting for someone else.
|Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump||4%||28%||76%|
|Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump||2%||10%||13%|
|Probably vote for someone else||4%||15%||6%|
|Definitely vote for someone else||90%||47%||5%|
While Republican support for the President may look “soft”, this is a reflection of where we are in the contest. Republicans aren’t choosing between the current Republican president and a specific Democratic challenger, but are instead evaluating their intention to support re-electing the president, given any hypothetical challenger. We should expect partisans to re-establish their support of the president as the contest wears on, and in particular, when the Democratic nominee emerges from that process. This is already apparent in the data. When asked whether they would vote for President Trump or Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke (fielded before he dropped out of the presidential nominating contest), and Julian Castro, respectively, a plurality of Texans said they would be voting for Trump over each contestant, including at least 88% of Republicans in each match-up.
Views of Economy & Right Track/Wrong Direction
If you’ve made it this far, you’re likely aware of the importance in economic, and general summary evaluations on national election outcomes. Below are a few results highlighting Texans’ attitudes towards the economy and the general direction of the country as the president attempts to focus on the economy in a visit to the facility of one of the most recognized American corporations in the world.
|A lot better off||24%|
|Somewhat better off||21%|
|About the same||24%|
|Somewhat worse off||16%|
|A lot worse off||8%|
|A lot better off||6%||13%||45%|
|Somewhat better off||8%||32%||31%|
|About the same||34%||21%||15%|
|Somewhat worse off||31%||14%||4%|
|A lot worse off||15%||7%||1%|
Still more Trump: Our data archive contains over 100 items related to Donald Trump going back to 2015. You can page through them by looking at a compendium of results tagged with his name at the Texas Politics Project website. Note that you can narrow these down by other tags (like year and month) using the same search menu at that page. If you use the “share” tag in the upper right hand corner of each individual graphics, you’ll find links for downloading graphics in multiple file formats, and buttons for social media sharing.