Rounding Up the Most Recent University of Texas/Texas Tribune Polling Data on President Donald Trump as He Visits the Austin Apple Campus

President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit an Apple facility in Austin this week. We’ve rounded up the most recent polling data from the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll on Texans’ attitudes toward the president.

Presidential Job Approval

The president’s overall job approval is in net-negative territory in Texas.

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categoryTotal
Approve strongly32%
Approve somewhat15%
Neither approve nor disapprove4%
Disapprove somewhat6%
Disapprove strongly42%
Don't know1%

Job approval is, unsurprisingly, polarized along party line, with disapproval among Democrats more intense (83% strongly disapprove) than approval among Republicans (61% strongly disapprove). Independents as a group disapprove of the president’s job performance on balance, with 41% approving and 51% disapproving.

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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Approve strongly4%25%61%
Approve somewhat2%16%27%
Neither approve nor disapprove3%8%4%
Disapprove somewhat7%12%4%
Disapprove strongly83%39%4%
Don't know1%0%1%

Approval in Texas  reflects strong rural support with more divided opinions in urban and suburban areas of the state.

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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Approve strongly22%34%45%
Approve somewhat14%14%18%
Neither approve nor disapprove6%4%1%
Disapprove somewhat7%5%7%
Disapprove strongly50%42%27%
Don't know0%1%2%

The president’s job approval has remained remarkably consistent over the first three years of his presidency in Texas, buttressed by intense partisan support (among Republicans) and opposition (among Democrats).

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categoryApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't know
February 201746%44%11%
June 201743%51%7%
October 201745%50%6%
February 201846%46%8%
June 201847%44%8%
October 201848%45%6%
February 201949%45%6%
June 201952%44%5%
October 201947%48%5%

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PollApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't know
February 201781%10%8%
June 201780%13%7%
October 201778%15%7%
February 201883%11%5%
June 201887%7%6%
October 201888%7%4%
February 201988%8%5%
June 201988%8%5%
October 201988%8%5%

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PollApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't know
February 20178%83%10%
June 20175%90%5%
October 20175%92%4%
February 20188%85%8%
June 20188%84%9%
October 20186%91%4%
February 20197%88%5%
June 201911%86%4%
October 20196%90%4%

Impeachment

With impeachment hearings looming when data collection for the October poll (October 18-27) took place, we asked a battery of items regarding attitudes toward the impeachment process and the major institutional actors involved.

Overall, a slim majority of Texans thought Congress was justified in “conducting impeachment investigations into actions Donald Trump has taken while president?"

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categoryTotal
Yes46%
No42%
Unsure6%
Don't know/No opinion6%

Responses to this question again showed polarization along party lines, with slightly more consensus among Democrats than among Republicans. While the lower level of intensity among Republicans doesn’t appear to be decisive in any way, it provides an interesting baseline moving into the 2020 election.

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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Yes84%46%13%
No6%32%78%
Unsure6%11%4%
Don't know/No opinion4%11%5%

As a group, women were less likely to have settled on a view of undertaking the impeachment process than men.

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categoryMaleFemale
Yes46%47%
No47%38%
Unsure4%8%
Don't know/No opinion3%8%

When asked about whether Trump should be removed from office – the possible consequence of impeachment – based on current knowledge, Texas voters are effectively evenly divided.

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categoryTotal
Yes43%
No44%
Unsure8%
Don't know/No opinion5%

The familiar partisan split is present, though with a 5-percentage-point drop in Democratic support for removal.

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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Yes79%34%12%
No10%33%79%
Unsure7%24%5%
Don't know/No opinion4%9%4%

Removal of Trump from office has much more support in urban areas, and support of the president not being removed before he has served out his term is strongest among rural Texans.

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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Yes56%41%28%
No28%47%63%
Unsure11%7%4%
Don't know/No opinion5%4%5%

Both the gender gap in support for the president, in part a function of gender differences in party identification, and the increased willingness of women to not take a position in polling, are evident on this item.

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categoryMaleFemale
Yes40%46%
No50%40%
Unsure8%8%
Don't know/No opinion2%7%

Approval ratings of how President Trump is responding to the impeachment investigation track closely with his job approval ratings, though overall assessment in this area is more negative overall.

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categoryTotal
Approve strongly25%
Approve somewhat14%
Neither approve nor disapprove10%
Disapprove somewhat7%
Disapprove strongly38%
Don't know6%

Partisan assessments resemble other assessments of Trump:  Republicans are overwhelmingly positive, but less intense so that the negative assessments of Democrats.

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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Approve strongly6%18%45%
Approve somewhat4%15%23%
Neither approve nor disapprove5%22%11%
Disapprove somewhat7%6%7%
Disapprove strongly73%37%6%
Don't know6%1%8%

Net approval of Trump’s response to impeachment is positive (+11) among men, very negative (-20) among women.

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categoryMaleFemale
Approve strongly33%19%
Approve somewhat17%11%
Neither approve nor disapprove9%11%
Disapprove somewhat6%8%
Disapprove strongly33%42%
Don't know2%10%

2020 Election

When asked about their vote intentions for the 2020 Election, 48% of respondents said that they would definitely (40%) or probably (8%) vote to re-elect Donald Trump, while 52% said that they would probably (6%) or definitely (46%) vote for someone else.

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categoryTotal
Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump40%
Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump8%
Probably vote for someone else6%
Definitely vote for someone else46%

And while Democrats and Republicans, unsurprisingly, line up in opposite corners on their intentions with respect to the President’s re-election, the newly, (potentially) competitive political environment in Texas makes the views of political independents more consequential for the contest. Among this group, 38% said that they would be supporting the President’s re-election, while 63% said that they would be voting for someone else.

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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump4%28%76%
Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump2%10%13%
Probably vote for someone else4%15%6%
Definitely vote for someone else90%47%5%

While Republican support for the President may look “soft”, this is a reflection of where we are in the contest. Republicans aren’t choosing between the current Republican president and a specific Democratic challenger, but are instead evaluating their intention to support re-electing the president, given any hypothetical challenger. We should expect partisans to re-establish their support of the president as the contest wears on, and in particular, when the Democratic nominee emerges from that process. This is already apparent in the data. When asked whether they would vote for President Trump or Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke (fielded before he dropped out of the presidential nominating contest), and Julian Castro, respectively, a plurality of Texans said they would be voting for Trump over each contestant, including at least 88% of Republicans in each match-up.

Views of Economy & Right Track/Wrong Direction

If you’ve made it this far, you’re likely aware of the importance in economic, and general summary evaluations on national election outcomes. Below are a few results highlighting Texans’ attitudes towards the economy and the general direction of the country as the president attempts to focus on the economy in a visit to the facility of one of the most recognized American corporations in the world.

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categoryTotal
A lot better off24%
Somewhat better off21%
About the same24%
Somewhat worse off16%
A lot worse off8%
Don't know6%

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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
A lot better off6%13%45%
Somewhat better off8%32%31%
About the same34%21%15%
Somewhat worse off31%14%4%
A lot worse off15%7%1%
Don't know6%12%4%

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categoryTotal
Right direction37%
Wrong track54%
Don't know9%

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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Right direction8%35%65%
Wrong track86%52%24%
Don't know6%14%11%

Still more Trump: Our data archive contains over 100 items related to Donald Trump going back to 2015. You can page through them by looking at a compendium of results tagged with his name at the Texas Politics Project website.  Note that you can narrow these down by other tags (like year and month) using the same search menu at that page. If you use the “share” tag in the upper right hand corner of each individual graphics, you’ll find links for downloading graphics in multiple file formats, and buttons for social media sharing.