June 20, 2024
Daron Shaw, Josh Blank, and Jim Henson talk over what results from the just-released June 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll can and can't tell us about the impact of Donald Trump's felony convictions on the 2024 election, and some of the considerations that go into polling on Trump, the election, and questions of democracy and potential political violence in response to the election.
Second Reading Notes
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| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 39% |
| Donald Trump | 46% |
| Someone else | 9% |
| Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion | 6% |
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| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 43% |
| Joe Biden | 34% |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. | 8% |
| Jill Stein | 2% |
| Cornel West | 2% |
| Chase Oliver | 0% |
| Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion | 10% |
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| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, he received a fair trial | 87% | 44% | 14% |
| No, he did not receive a fair trial | 5% | 34% | 75% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 7% | 21% | 11% |
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| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | 45% |
| Colin Allred | 34% |
| Someone else | 6% |
| Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion | 14% |
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| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very favorable | 14% |
| Somewhat favorable | 20% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 24% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 8% |
| Very unfavorable | 16% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 17% |
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| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 31% | 4% | 3% |
| Somewhat favorable | 32% | 17% | 10% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 20% | 22% | 28% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 5% | 13% | 10% |
| Very unfavorable | 2% | 19% | 29% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 10% | 24% | 20% |
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| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very confident | 14% |
| Somewhat confident | 34% |
| Not very confident | 30% |
| Not at all confident | 13% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 8% |
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| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very confident | 21% | 4% | 11% |
| Somewhat confident | 42% | 22% | 30% |
| Not very confident | 25% | 33% | 34% |
| Not at all confident | 6% | 28% | 17% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 6% | 14% | 9% |
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| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very likely | 19% | 20% | 18% |
| Somewhat likely | 41% | 30% | 38% |
| Not too likely | 19% | 21% | 18% |
| Not at all likely | 7% | 5% | 8% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 13% | 24% | 17% |
About the Second Reading podcast. The podcast has been produced by Jim Henson for the Texas Politics Project, with production support from UT's Liberal Arts Development Studio, since 2016. You can find past episodes and subscribe to the Second Reading podcast in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.